Two of the tournament favourites meet in Group 6 of the PDC Home Tour Play-Offs and Dan Fitch fancies Joe Cullen to go through to the next stage...
"The value could be with Cullen here. He has won four of their six encounters (L2) and was in better form than Dobey this year, before the season was suspended."
PDC Home Tour
Sunday 31 May
Live on Betfair Live Video
Two of the brightest young talents in darts meet in Group 6 of the PDC Home Tour Play-Offs, in what looks likely to be a shootout between Chris Dobey and Joe Cullen.
Dobey is the favourite to win the group at [2.26], with Cullen not far behind at [2.96]. Jeff Smith and Martin Kleermaker complete the group and are both rated at [7.0].
Cullen is amongst the favourites to win the tournament at [16.0], with Dobey the fourth favourite at [13.5]. Nathan Aspinall is third favourite at [7.8], with Dave Chisnall now ahead of him after making the semi-finals at [6.2] and Gary Anderson leading the betting at [5.0].
Cullen has recorded highest tournament average
Joe Cullen [1.46] v Martin Kleermaker [2.86]
Start time 19:35
It took Cullen two attempts to make it to this stage, having initially finished as runner-up in Group 20. Cullen took full advantage of his second chance, winning Group 31 with an overall average of 106.65, which is the highest recorded in the tournament so far.
Yet backing Cullen could be risky, considering that he has lost twice to Kleemaker this year. Instead, go for Cullen to have an average of over 95.5 at 5/6 on the Sportsbook.
180 levels set low
Chris Dobey [1.4] v Jeff Smith [2.96]
Start time 20:05
Both players won two of their three group games to reach this stage, though Dobey was perhaps unfortunate to lose his one match in Group 13 in which he averaged 101.65.
Dobey looks a little too short here, so let's stay away from the results markets. Smith is not a prolific scorer of 180s, but over the longer format it's worth taking a chance on both players to score two or more 180s at odds of 9/4.
Tight game could go long
Martin Kleermaker [2.1] v Jeff Smith [1.83]
Start time 20:35
Kleermaker is the outsider here, but won the only previous encounter between these players, triumphing 5-3 back in 2019.
It would be a surprise if there's much in this one and odds of Evens for there to be over 9.5 legs, looks like good value.
Cullen has winning record over favourite
Joe Cullen [2.12] v Chris Dobey [1.73]
Start time 21:05
The value could be with Cullen here. He has won four of their six encounters (L2) and was in better form than Dobey this year, before the season was suspended.
Dobey is bound to be competitive, so it makes sense to simply back Cullen to win at [2.12].
Dobey averages went up over time
Chris Dobey [1.4] v Martin Kleermaker [2.96]
Start time 21:35
In the last stage Dobey averaged 93.71 in his first match, 97.09 in his second and 101.65 in the third.
If he can make similar improvements as this group goes on, in what should be a more competitive environment, then odds of 10/11 for him to average over 95.5 looks like good value.
Cullen will end night with a win
Jeff Smith [2.52] v Joe Cullen [1.53]
Start time 22:05
In Group 31, Cullen scored a total of nine 180s, with five of them coming in his final game.
This record could be key to finding some value for a Cullen win. You can back him to win the match and score the most 180s at 10/11.
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Back Cullen to average over 95.5 against Kleermaker at 5/6
Back Dobey and Smith to both score two 180s at 9/4
Back over 9.5 legs between Kleermaker and Smith at Evens
Back Cullen to beat Dobey at [2.12]
Back Dobey to average over 95.5 against Kleermaker at 10/11
Back Cullen to beat Smith and score the most 180s at 10/11