The PDC Home Tour Play-Offs come to a conclusion and Dan Fitch is backing Jonny Clayton to book the last place in the semi-finals.
"Clayton has won all three of his matches against Hopp."
PDC Home Tour
Tuesday 2 June
Live on Betfair Live Video
It's the final night of the PDC Home Tour Play-Offs on Tuesday, as the final four contenders meet in Group 8.
Jonny Clayton is the favourite to progress to the semi-finals at 2.427/5. Max Hopp is the narrow second favourite at 3.55/2, ahead of Scott Waites at 3.613/5. Carl Wilkinson completes the group at 9.417/2.
Gary Anderson is the favourite to win the tournament at 5.14/1. Dave Chisnall is 5.95/1, with Rob Cross at 7.413/2 and Nathan Aspinall at 8.07/1.
Clayton can start with a win
Jonny Clayton 1.728/11 v Scott Waites 2.35/4
Start time 19:35
Clayton was in hot form before the season was paused for lockdown. He reached the semi-finals of the UK Open in March, beating Waites 10-7.
With that match being pretty close, it's best to simply back Clayton to win this opening game at 1.728/11.
Wilkinson is being underrated
Max Hopp 1.538/15 v Carl Wilkinson 2.526/4
Start time 20:05
Hopp is a big favourite here, but it's more down to the relative rankings of the two players that their performances in this tournament.
We've seen plenty of evidence that the home darts format is a leveller and Wilkinson played very well in Group 13, where he won all three of his games, with an overall average of 94.61, compared to Hopp's 85.79 in Group 12. At the very least it should be tight and over 9.5 legs is Evens.
Waites can hit another high average
Scott Waites 1.548/15 v Carl Wilkinson 2.6213/8
Start time 20:35
Like Wilkinson, Waites has a relatively lowly ranking, but he has only recently made the move from the BDO and has performed well in this tournament.
In total he has played six matches, after initially finishing second in Group 3 to Chisnall. He averaged 93.13 in that group and 95.83 when he won Group 27, so he should be able to average over 92.5 in this match at odds of 10/11.
Clayton will overcome handicap
Jonny Clayton 1.584/7 v Max Hopp 2.447/5
Start time 21:05
Clayton has won all three of his matches against Hopp, so these odds seem about right.
The price for Clayton is a little too short to recommend, but with this match being first to six, he should be able to overcome the handicap of -1.5 at odds of 2.111/10.
Waites won't get caught on Hopp
Max Hopp 2.0621/20 v Scott Waites 1.865/6
Start time 21:35
Based on their previous form in this tournament, Waites deserves to be the narrow favourite.
There's a temptation to add caveats to boost the price, but with Hopp a very capable player, we'll stick with a straight win for Waites at 1.865/6.
Take chance on big win for favourite
Carl Wilkinson 2.962/1 v Jonny Clayton 1.42/5
Start time 22:05
These are the shortest odds for Clayton in this group and to find any value we're going to have to back him to end the night with a big win.
Up to now we've predicted pretty conservatively in this group, so we'll now take a chance on Clayton to win the match, score the most 180s and highest checkout at odds of 5/2.
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Back Clayton to beat Waites at 1.728/11
Back over 9.5 legs between Hopp and Wilkinson at Evens
Back Waites to average over 92.5 against Wilkinson at 10/11
Back Clayton -1.5 against Hopp at 2.111/10
Back Waites to beat Hopp at 1.865/6
Back Clayton to beat Wilkinson, score the most 180s and highest checkout at 5/2