Dan Fitch expects Glen Durrant to progress to the next stage, but thinks Stephen Bunting can outscore him in Group 2.
"Durrant has improved since then, but one area where Bunting remains superior is scoring 180s."
PDC Home Tour Betting
Wednesday 27 May
Live on Betfair Live Video
Group 2 of the PDC Home Tour Play-Offs takes place on Wednesday, featuring two former BDO World Champions.
The three-time BDO king Glen Durrant is the favourite to win the group at 1.738/11, ahead of the 2014 winner Stephen Bunting at 3.259/4. Mike de Decker at 6.411/2 and Alan Tabern at 12.011/1 complete the quartet of first stage group winners.
Durrant is the fourth favourite to win the tournament at 14.013/1. At the time of writing Peter Wright - who competes in Group 1 on Tuesday - is the favourite at 5.69/2, ahead of Nathan Aspinall at 10.5 and Gary Anderson at 11.010/1.
Bunting will score heavily
Stephen Bunting 1.558/15 v Mike de Decker 2.68/5
Start time 19:35
Bunting is a fairly big favourite here, but he has lost both of his previous two encounters with De Decker, albeit with both matches taking place in 2016.
With Bunting's superior ranking and impressive performance in Group 18, it's right that he's favourite, but not to this extent. Stay away from the results markets and instead back Bunting to record an average of over 93.5 at 10/11 on the Sportsbook, which he achieved in his first two group games.
Durrant had great average in last stage
Glen Durrant 1.232/9 v Alan Tabern 4.84/1
Start time 20:05
Durrant lived up to his billing as one of the tournament favourites in Group 19, winning all three of his games and recording an overall average of 99.85.
With that in mind, the average set for the favourite, once again looks generous. Back Durrant to score over 95.5 at 4/5.
Tighter than odds suggest
Mike de Decker 1.574/7 v Alan Tabern 2.486/4
Start time 20:30
De Decker needed a second attempt to reach this stage, finishing second in Group 12, before winning Group 26.
In contrast, Tabern won Group 11, despite the presence of Simon Whitlock. Tabern may be being underestimated here and this could be tighter than the odds suggest. Over 9.5 legs is Evens.
Bunting can outscore favourite
Stephen Bunting 2.6213/8 v Glen Durrant 1.51/2
Start time 21:00
Bunting has the advantage in the head-to-head, winning three of his five matches against Durrant, but they have not met since 2013.
Durrant has improved since then, but one area where Bunting remains superior is scoring 180s. Despite being the outsider to win, Bunting is the favourite to score the most 180s at 2.111/10.
De Decker will win 180 battle
Glen Durrant 1.331/3 v Mike de Decker 3.39/4
Start time 21:30
The battle to score the most 180s could also be the key to finding value in this match. De Decker has competed in a total of seven group games so far and he's scored the most 180s in six of them.
Though Durrant should win the war, that's a battle that De Decker can win again. You can back De Decker to score the most 180s and lose the match at 9/4.
Bunting has two big wins over opponent in 2020
Alan Tabern 3.02/1 v Stephen Bunting 1.374/11
Start time 22:00
Bunting has a very strong record against Tabern. He's won five of their seven matches (L2), including each of the last four, with the two most recent games both taking place this year.
Those last two games saw Bunting beat Tabern 10-2 at the UK Open and then 6-2 a week later. Back Bunting to win the match, score the most 180s and highest checkout at 23/10.
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Back Bunting to average over 93.5 against De Decker at 10/11
Back Durrant to average over 95.5 against Tabern at 4/5
Back over 9.5 legs between De Decker and Tabern at Evens
Back Bunting to score more 180s than Durrant at 2.111/10
Back De Decker to score more 180s than Durrant and lose the match at 9/4
Back Bunting to beat Tabern, score the most 180s and highest checkout at 23/10