Steve Beaton might have the pedigree, but Dan Fitch argues that his recent performances suggest that he should not be favoured in Group 27 of the PDC Home Tour...
"Beaton’s position as favourite is questionable and that’s even more the case when you consider that Meulenkamp has won two of their three matches (L1)."
PDC Home Tour
Wednesday 13 May
Live on Betfair Live Video
Group 27 of the PDC Home Tour features four more players taking their second attempt at making it through to the next stage.
It's one of the most closely priced groups that we've seen so far. Steve Beaton leads the betting to win Group 27 at 2/1 on the Sportsbook. Scott Waites and Ron Meulenkamp are both 5/2, with Ross Smith not far behind at 7/2.
Glen Durrant remains the favourite to win the tournament, but is now out at [10.0]. Rob Cross is the new second favourite at [10.5], with Nathan Aspinall at [11.0]. The fifth favourite is now Gerwyn Price at [14.5], in anticipation of his second attempt at making it through the group stage.
Value lies with underdog
Steve Beaton [1.86] v Scott Waites [2.0]
Start time 19:35
Beaton finished second in Group 13, but only won one of his three games (L2). He had the same record when he competed in this format at the Darts at Home event, so his position as favourite is somewhat questionable.
Waites won two of his games in Group 3, only losing to Dave Chisnall. With Waites in decent form since making the switch to the PDC this year, the value seems to be with him at [2.0].
Meulenkamp scored heavily last time round
Ross Smith [2.0] v Ron Meulenkamp [1.8]
Start time 20:05
Again, both players finished second, but one has a stronger record than the other. Smith only won one match in Group 4, while Meulenkamp won twice in Group 14.
Meulenkamp looks a worthy favourite then. He threw eight 180s in his three previous Home Tour matches and you can back him to win and score the most 180s at 7/5.
Waites has dominant record
Scott Waites [1.9] v Ron Meulenkamp [1.91]
Start time 20:30
This market could hardly be tighter, so the fact that Waites has a dominant record against Meulenkamp is certainly interesting.
Waites has won all three of their matches and though they were all quite some time ago, it suggests that he's worth backing at [1.9].
Not much to choose between favourite and rank outsider
Steve Beaton [1.78] v Ross Smith [2.1]
Start time 21:00
Based on previous performances in this competition, this should be a close game, with both players having produced a similar level in their respective groups.
This might suggest that the value lies with Smith, but we're going to play it safe by backing over 7.5 legs at 4/6.
Smith has recent win over opponent
Ross Smith [2.1] v Scott Waites [1.8]
Start time 21:30
Waites has the advantage in the head-to-head, with two wins from three encounters, but Smith won the most recent game convincingly.
Smith triumphed 6-1 in February, so let's take a chance on him with -1.5 in the handicap market at [3.0].
Meulenkamp leads head-to-head
Ron Meulenkamp [1.98] v Steve Beaton [1.9]
Start time 22:00
As discussed, Beaton's position as favourite is questionable and that's even more the case when you consider that Meulenkamp has won two of their three matches (L1).
That includes both of the two most recent games. Meulenkamp is the value pick at [1.98].
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Back Waites to beat Beaton at [2.0]
Back Meulenkamp to beat Smith and score the most 180s at 7/5
Back Waites to beat Meulenkamp at [1.9]
Back over 7.5 legs between Beaton and Smith at 4/6
Back Smith -1.5 against Waites at [3.0]
Back Meulenkamp to beat Beaton at [1.98]