Rocky Fielding v Tyron Zeuge: Englishman better than his price but he'll get no favours in Germany
It's England vs Germany in the ring and Betfair's boxing writer Frankie Monkhouse looks at the chances of an upset on Saturday night...
"Although Fielding should perform better than his odds suggest it is easy to see why traders are so keen to keep Tyron Zeuge as close as possible in the fight winner betting"
The fighting pride of Merseyside bids to win a world title in Germany on Saturday evening as Sky Sports bring us Rocky Fielding v Tyron Zeuge for the WBA super middleweight crown from the Baden-Arena, Offenburg.
The Englishman boards a plane as a rank outsider with traders but he possesses the tools and skills needed to go and upset the odds and bring the big nights back to Liverpool. Will he do it? Traders say not a chance but perhaps we shouldn't be too quick to write him off.
Plenty to get excited about if backing Fielding
30-year-old Rocky Fielding jets in with a professional record of 26-1-0 since making his debut on the undercard of Derry Matthews v Daniel Thorpe in Salford back in the late summer of 2010. He got off the mark with a six-round points victory that night and has picked up a host of titles since including the Prizefighter trophy in 2011 - the first fighter to win all three bouts by KO/TKO - English, British, Commonwealth, WBA Inter-Continental and WBC International medals.
Fielding stopped Scotsman David Brophy in a round for British and Commonwealth super middleweight titles last year but has appeared only once since, outpointing Czech Karel Horejsek over eight rounds back in March with a comfortable 79-74 tally. Will that inactivity hamper Fielding here? The market believes so and there's a chunky [4.1] on the Betfair Exchange about the title heading back to England.
As you may expect there's plenty to get excited about if picking Rocky in the method of victory market with 4/1 trading on a points win or 6/1 the KO/TKO, both available when betting through the Betfair Sportsbook.
Zeuge hasn't put a foot wrong so far
Ricky isn't a big price because he's an average fighter in over his head in front of a foreign audience in one of the toughest countries to get a points win, he's a big price because opponent Tyron Zeuge is a genuine talent who looks destined for the top. 22-0-1, the only slight blot on the 26-year-old German's copybook came when fighting out a majority decision draw with Giovanni De Carolis for GBU and WBA titles in 2016. Zeuge stopped the same opponent in a rematch next time out.
The home favourite boasts a 52% KO average and enhanced that in his most recent start when demolishing Nigerian Isaac Ekpo inside two rounds in March, again before an adoring German audience who believe they have a golden boy of boxing. The Exchange has Tyron a [1.33] fav, a price that forces backers into the specials. Another KO/TKO is 7/2, best price on the Betfair Sportsbook, behind the points win at 4/5.
Nice price on a late stoppage
Although Fielding should perform better than his odds suggest it is easy to see why traders are so keen to keep Tyron Zeuge as close as possible in the fight winner betting. They learned quite some time ago there's little joy to be had in taking this man on and they're not about to now.
It would be interesting to see how the prices would sit if this bout took place in Liverpool but I'm confident the German would have enough about him to win regardless of the setting. The fight should travel into the second half but there's little in the points win to get us excited. Keep your stakes low and try Zeuge in rounds 7-12 at 6/1 (Betfair Sportsbook).