Lee Selby v Josh Warrington: Underdog's price a tempter but Welshman should get the job done

Lee Selby and Josh Warrington
Our man is backing Selby to edge Saturday night's Warrington grudge match
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Elland Road will be packed-out for this world title fight with the market expecting Selby to silence the Warrington supporters in the stands. Betfair's Frankie Monkhouse tells you how he expects it to go.....

"As a punter I can’t believe the value about a Warrington win but, although I wouldn’t put anyone off an interest play, I’ve always thought Selby is a bit special"

Lee Selby v Josh Warrington
Saturday, 22:00
Live on BT Sport

It's a domestic dust-up fans have been looking forward to since it was announced. Lee Selby and Josh Warrington, two of British boxing's hottest talents, clash in a 12-round contest for the IBF world featherweight title. A major arena was essential for this one and organisers have sold-out the home of Leeds United football club - Elland Road.

On paper there's very little between the two combatants but the betting markets had little trouble separating the pair and have gone with Welshman Lee Selby as hot favourite. Punters looking to back the jolly will need to look to the specials where there's plenty of value on offer.

Selby arrives on a 22-fight winning run

Lee Selby brings a 26-1-0 record into this bout with the spare coming way back in 2009. Easy enough to forgive as it was very early in his career, beaten over four rounds by Hull's Samir Mouneimne who went on to pave out a professional career of 18 wins from 21 starts. Selby certainly had no trouble putting that slight blot to the back of his mind and has won each of his 22 fights since.

That purple patch is made all the more impressive when learning just what he has achieved in such a short space of time, picking up an array of titles including British, Commonwealth, European and the IBF world strap. The 31-year-old won the latter with a technical decision over Russian Evgeny Gradovich in 2015 at the 02 Arena and has made four successful defences.

Interestingly, three of those four wins have come on the judges' scorecards and another points cheer is 4/6 fav - market best price on the Betfair Exchange - deemed more likely than a KO/TKO which has been chalked up at 7/2. There's [1.37] if you'd prefer to keep it simple and back Selby in the fight winner market through the Betfair Exchange. One for your weekend accumulators, perhaps.

Warrington stopped Mouneimne in 12 rounds

The market would suggest Josh Warrington is little more than an opponent and man who'll be happy to end as another stat on the record of Lee Selby. Those with their finger on the pulse of British boxing know that's comical. Warrington is, in fact, a supremely talented fighter with a glittering unbeaten tally of 26-0-0. As well as a pristine record the pride of Leeds will also have the backing of a fiercely loyal home support.

The 27-year-old Warrington doesn't possess concussive punch power and that's the reason he has a lowly 23% KO average, stopping only six opponents to date, but he certainly hasn't let that hold him back. Since debuting with a four-round points win over journeyman Delroy Spencer in 2009 his form has delivered English, British, Commonwealth, and European belts. To add a little extra spice to the evening Warrington halted Samir Mouneimne - the only man to beat Selby - in the last of a 12-round battle in 2013.

Looking at the CV of both corners there would be no upset if either was to have their hand raised at the end and as a value-hunter that makes the [4.3] about a Warrington win a real tempter. There will be plenty of interest that's for sure. Josh on points is 7/2 vs a KO at 16/1.

Favourite's class overshadows the value

This fight is a tough one to call. As a punter I can't believe the value about a Warrington win but, although I wouldn't put anyone off an interest play, I've always thought Selby is a bit special, among the best talents we have, and he'll prove it again.

This is a step up in grade for both men, but the favourite's class will shine through and he's picked to succeed. Reading the form tells us this one goes the distance, making a Selby points win the smart pick.

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