Gennady Golovkin v Saul Alvarez: Don't miss the cracking early value

Canelo picked to settle the score
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It's the fight we all wanted and, on May 6, it's the rematch we'll get. Golovkin and Alvarez renew rivalries. Betfair's resident boxing expert Frankie Monkhouse takes a look at the early betting...

"I’m a massive fan of Triple G and thought he did enough to win a thrilling contest last time but, as a punter, I’d much rather have Canelo at the better price. Why wouldn’t you?"

Back Alvarez to win @ [2.50]

Gennady Golovkin v Saul Alvarez
Sunday May 6 2018

Battle-lines have been drawn and they'll do it all again. Two of the biggest names in the sport of boxing, featuring near the head of every pound-for-pound ranking, renew rivals when Gennady Golovkin and Saul Alvarez face-off for the second time.

A date has been set in stone, much to the delight of fans everywhere, with the rivals set to meet on American soil May 6 this year. Casual punters won't get the WWE style build-up, with temper tantrums, trash talking and flying tables - the media tour will be conducted in a civilised manner by two gentlemen - but be sure, all hell will break loose on the sounding of the first bell.

The fighters shared a draw last time, you'll remember, their September meeting settled as a split. Judge Adalaide Byrd scored it 118-110 Canelo, Wow! Dave Moretti preferred GGG's efforts, handing in 115-113, while Don Trella was in danger of getting a skelfy backside, sitting on the fence with a 114-114 decision. As fight fans, we loved every second of the bout, but nothing was settled that night, everyone concerned knowing a rematch was the only way forward.

Is GGG losing his punch power?

As with most major meetings throughout boxing history, it was a case of what you liked. Golovkin's come-forward style, throwing bombs and trying to make a fight of it, vs the cute skills of the cinnamon one, who rolled, blocked and ducked his way out of trouble, before returning heavy fire. Personally, I had Gennady as the winner on my scorecard, but it can't be trusted after watching the battle in a daze, awe-struck by the skills on show. One for the purists, and not a moment too soon either.

That draw ruined the 35-year-old Kazak's perfect record, moving his CV to 37-0-1. Despite bringing a jaw-smashing 87% KO average, Golovkin has travelled the scheduled distance four times in his career, with half of those coming in his last two starts. Is he slowing down? Are opponents getting wise to his tactics? Perhaps his punch-power is weakening? I certainly wouldn't like to test the latter. This fight to travel the 12-round distance is an 8/11 favourite on the Sportsbook. That will be settled as a winner if we hear the final bell, regardless of the win, lose, draw decision. Perfect if, like Mr Trella, you think it's the taking part that counts.

As a punter, it's difficult to ignore the value

A clue to how this rematch might pan-out can be taken from the betting. The market has Golovkin as a strong favourite, priced odds-on with both the Sportsbook and Exchange, the latter trading [1.57] at the time of writing. However, there was no lack of shrewd judges who thought Canelo should've got the nod last year. That makes the [2.50] a cracking piece of value if you fancy an upset.

I'm a massive fan of Triple G and thought he did enough to win a thrilling contest last time but, as a punter, I'd much rather have Canelo at the better price. Why wouldn't you? There was nothing in that September dust-up but it's obvious traders haven't learned their lesson. GGG is getting older, Saul seems to be hitting his prime and I was really impressed by his defence in fight one, not to mention his replies. Make them miss and make them pay - that'll be the story of success in May.


Recommended Bets
Back Alvarez to win @ [2.50]
Fight to go the distance @ 8/11 (Sportsbook)

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