Golovkin v Alvarez II: Score to settle as two of boxing's biggest names go toe-to-toe
The talking stops in the early hours of Sunday morning as big-punching duo Golovkin and Alvarez settle an old score. There's lots to get through and Betfair's Frankie Monkhouse hopes to lead followers to profit...
"Some aren’t for forgiving Canelo but the shortest route back on top would be inflicting Golovkin’s first defeat. He’s a [2.54] outsider to achieve that with the Betfair Exchange"
Gennady Golovkin v Saul Alvarez
Live on BT Sport Box Office
Sporting world stands still
The fight we all feared wouldn't happen goes ahead in the early hours of Sunday morning as two of the division's best loved stars battle it out in a rematch. The sporting world will stand still as Gennady Golovkin and Saul Alvarez renew rivalries at the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas.
The pair fought out a controversial split decision draw a year ago and there has been no lack of bad blood between the camps since, but who will right the wrong of September 2017 and get the win? Could we see another share with the scoring judges again unable to split these supreme gladiators?
As you would expect, Betfair have laid on a late night feast of betting opportunities for Sportsbook and Exchange users to get stuck into. As well as the all-important fight winner market you can also have your say on method of victory, round betting, bout to be won inside a minute, round group betting and plenty more besides.
Where does the smart money go and how should punters invest their stake to help cover the cost of the pay-per-view subscription? Let's look at the form of both combatants for clues...
GGG has an 87% KO average but don't be too hasty
Gennady Golovkin - 38-0-01 - remains one of the biggest punchers in professional boxing history with an earth-shattering 87% KO average. The 36-year-old brawler born in Kazakhstan now fights out of his Los Angeles base and goes into this career-defining bout on the back of a 34th knockout win of his career. Californian Vanes Martirosyan was the latest scalp to be added to his belt, the American dealt with inside two rounds in Carson earlier this year.
Triple G's power can't be questioned but it's often his ring craft that gets the job done, the veteran stalking opponents, pushing them back against the ropes before unleashing a barrage of sickening shots. For further evidence of this see his fifth round TKO win over Englishman Kell Brook. Special K went into that contest an undefeated world champion at welterweight but came out of it with a fractured eye socket.
Despite inside-the-distance wins over Brook and Martirosyan, the recent trends suggest we shouldn't be too hasty in backing another early night with Golovkin taken the 12-round distance in two of his last three - Daniel Jacobs and Saul Alvarez. Gennady lines up as the [1.75] favourite on the Betfair Exchange but there's more to be had if playing the method of victory market. A KO/TKO result can be had at [3.85], the points win [3.1].
Can't split them? Bet on the fight to go the distance at 8/15 and that will be paid out as a winner regardless of which fighter has their hand raised following the decision.
Canelo continues to improve
Where to start with Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez? The Mexican has done it all in his career already and it's easy to forget he's only 28-years-old, having already shared a ring with greats of the game such as Shane Mosley, Floyd Mayweather Jnr, Miguel Cotto, Amir Khan and, of course, Golovkin first time out. Let's remember the fighting pride of Jalisco pushed TBE close during their 2013 meeting, dropping a majority decision, one judge tallying a 114-114 draw.
For as exciting and as talented as he is, Alvarez prepares for this with his reputation in tatters following that well-publicised failed drugs test earlier this year. Canelo tested positive for the banned substance clenbuterol which appeared in an out-of-competition urine test. The fighter himself denied all knowledge before blaming contaminated meat, but that excuse did little to win over the boxing public. Some called him a no-good cheat, others believe he should've received a lifetime ban.
In the end Saul got nothing more than a slap on the wrist, banned for six months with no financial penalty to speak of - he didn't even turn up at the Nevada Athletic Commission hearing when the ruling was passed, seemingly accepting his fate. The only real victims of the whole sorry affair were lovers of the noble art who were denied Golovkin - Alvarez II when it was scheduled to take place on May 5.
Some aren't for forgiving Canelo but the shortest route back on top would be inflicting Golovkin's first defeat. He's a [2.54] outsider to achieve that with the Betfair Exchange. When flicking through the markets you'll also find the points win at [3.25], KO/TKO or disqualification a standout [10.0]. What about another draw? Call it a round [24.0] and we wouldn't be in a rush to put you off a bet on that at interest stakes.
Punt on the bigger price makes sense
If this super-fight follows the thinking of traders, it'll end in a convincing Golovkin points win but when two men as evenly matched as these fighters meet you've got to take a chance on a bigger price. I fancied Golovkin first time and thought he done enough to get the nod, but I'll be taking him on for two reasons.
Firstly, the value. Alvarez has been forced out of action for a while, but the rest would've done him a few favours, allowing time to reflect and plan for the future. He wasn't shown up by Floyd and won't be here. The underdog has already proven his chin when swallowing a couple of clean shots from Golovkin last year, and defence will be key to victory.
Secondly, Golovkin is another year older and although you never lose your punch power he's fast approaching the end of his career. A man at 36 in with an opponent in the prime of his life. It makes sense to take a pop at the better price.
I lost all respect for Alvarez after the failed drugs test and, personally, wouldn't have him anywhere near this fight ahead of Billy Joe Saunders, a genuine world champion who has got to the top the hard way. So, it pains me to say it but I'm taking the younger, fresher man coming off the back of a rest to win on points.
Whatever you're betting just remember one thing - a good boxer always beats a good fighter.
Back Alvarez to win on points @ [3.25]