Boxing / Alex Steedman / 11 April 2012 /

The Irish Heavyweight Championship is on the line at the Odyssey Arena in Belfast on Saturday night, and Alex Steedman believes the undefeated Tyson Fury will be too strong for plucky Martin Rogan.

If Guy Ritchie was looking to follow up on 'Lock Stock' and 'Snatch' he could do worse than look to this weekend's Irish Heavyweight Championship in Belfast for inspiration.

With a local cabbie who punched his way to Prizefighter and Commonwealth title glory in one corner and the lippy, fighting traveller-son of a jailbird in the other, it's got the big screen written all over. Even better, you get a private screening on Channel 5 this Saturday night.

Martin Rogan has become something of a Belfast Hero since he roared to that Prizefighter success in 2008 and his reputation as a working class hard man who will have a go was defined when he outpointed Olympian Audley Harrison the following year.

There isn't finery or dancing skills to Rogan but if you want a run for your money in any race, at around [5.5] once there's more liquidity in the market, he's your man. Remember, this is the dude who out-hustled and eventually stopped the runaway train Matt Skelton during that purple patch three years ago. Rogan is the Rocky Balboa, Duracell bunny running on fizzy pop.

But Rogan is beatable. The better skilled Sam Sexton managed it twice thanks to some luck and controversy inflicting the only defeats of Rogan's career but in spells he made Rogan look ordinary and Tyson Fury has the talent as well as the skill set to do the same. But will he use that advantage, will Rogan let him and how big a factor will the knee-buckling Odyssey atmosphere cranked up by the rankling spirit of Anglo-Irish needle be?

Those are significant questions because everything else is loaded towards a Fury win at around [1.18].

In short time, over 17 unbeaten fights, Fury has skipped to English, British and Commonwealth title success. It says much for his ability as well as the previous dearth of talent in this division that he has made such strides; not too dissimilar to the swathe cut by Amir Khan through the early stages of his career. But like Khan, Fury loves to fight and he makes things significantly harder than they need to be.

Standing around Klitschko height, Fury should win most fights on the jab and he does possess an unusual array of punches for a big man. But they don't always get an airing and Rogan has the intensity to discourage as well as force the nature of this fight. It should be a cracker.

Some will point to Fury's comfortable decision win over Dereck Chisora last year as example of the class divide and Chisora's effort against Vitali Klitschko as exclamation of the point. That is true to an extent but Chisora lost that fight in MacDonalds so I wouldn't labour the fact.

Put simply though, Fury is the better fighter, has the wider range of skills to call upon and is both younger and fresher. He might not always put all of that together but Fury finds a way to succeed and he continues to progress despite the seeming turmoil of his personal life against the backdrop of training operation which appears a movable feast. The sub-plots here are endless.

One thing is certain; Rogan will give it everything and he will ask serious questions of Fury's resolve. If there are any distractions for Fury either inside his head or behind his preparations, Rogan will expose them. But if he's right in both those areas, Fury has the talent to ride the more stressful moments and continue his story.

It's been an engaging tale so far and with the Klitschkos pencilled deep into the later chapters; it is a script still somewhat in the works.

Recommended Bet

Back Tyson Fury to win by Decision/Tech Dec @ [4.0]

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