Jockeys and Trainer "Trends" the human element of Horse Racing.
Malcolm Pett discusses the "Human" element of horse racing. And why you may want to consider following Jockey and Trainer trends.
As a system developer most of my time is spent looking for profit based on form or course information.
But sometimes it is worth considering the human element.
Like any sport. Horse Racing has people that are better at it than others.
Some jockeys seem to be able to ride just about any horse and get it to win and some trainers appear to have more winning horses.
Appearances are the problem...
An un-informed punter could be forgiven for thinking that following a certain Jockey or Trainer is a good idea, it is, but maybe not the ones they seem to read about the most.
When you look at the actual statistics even the really successful Jockeys or Trainers will only have strike rates in the teens or very low 20's.
That means they actually lose many more times than they win.
But the informed punter understands this and understands that like many "sports people" there will be certain conditions when a Jockey or Trainer wins more often than others.
People often use the word "Trend" to describe following a Jockey or Trainer but I think this implies that it "won't last for long".
I prefer to look for areas where the statistics seem to imply they do better than others, consistently.
We humans develop preferences and automatically through practice or experience excel more in some areas than others.
If we apply the same principle to horse racing...
...We see Jockeys that prefer riding certain horses or perform better at some courses or even work better with certain trainers.
One very successful Jockey shows a 25% strike rate (over the last 18 months) when riding over hurdles.
But when you break down their races you see:
They have a much higher strike rate (31%) at class 5 but much lower (18%) when riding in class 1 races.
They also have a very high strike rate at Ayr and Catterick but a very low strike rate at Ascot and Cheltenham
They even appear to do better in races where there are up to 11 runners. But in bigger fields their strike rate drops in to the teens.
This is just a small example of what you find when you dig a little deeper into the statistics.
It is also true of Trainers.
But following the very top Jockeys and Trainers is not always where the profit it is.
As soon as these runners get on the radar of the national daily press then their prices tend to suffer and it makes it very difficult to make a profit, even if they do sustain a high strike rate.
A better method could be to look for Jockeys and Trainers that are "rising stars" or just tend to be "Steady Eddie's".
Although the strike rate may not be as good as some of the top Jockey and Trainers the average price that you can achieve from following them can mean they are a far more profitable in the long run.
Especially if you can find areas where they have a higher strike rate than would be expected.
At the Grey Horse Bot web site we are producing a range of statistics (we call cards) that allow our "news letter" subscribers a chance to pick up on some of these.
Following Jockey and Trainers can be very interesting as well as profitable especially when you discover profitable trends that others may have missed.
So you may want to forget the word "Trend" and instead concentrate on finding long term profitable areas where individual Jockey's and Trainers appear to excel.