How well do you know your strike rate and average winning odds?
Malcolm Pett talks us through working out your strike rate, average winning odds and how to improve your chances of making a profit on horse racing betting...
"Monitoring your strike rate and AWO is an ongoing process and it should become more accurate as your archive of results grows."
When you first start out trying to create your own betting system, you are normally looking for a process that helps you find as many winners as possible. Your mission, in your eyes, is to win as often as you possibly can. Although it appears that is the best thing to do there are actually only two figures that will dictate whether you make profit or not: Firstly, your Strike Rate, and secondly your Average Winning Odds (AWO).
It is these two figures you should be concentrating on from day one. Think of it like this. The lower your strike rate the higher your AWO will need to be in order for you to make a profit. These two figures go hand in hand. Let us look at an example:
If you had a system that had a strike of 25% and average winning odds of [6.0] it would look like something like this (you can use this strike rate calculator here).
It is easiest if you think of 25% as winning 25 times out of every 100 bets.
(100 - 25) = 75
So we know we have 25 winners and 75 losers (on average).
You multiply your AWO by your number of winners.
25 x 6 = 150
Now take away your 75 losers.
150 - 75 = 75
If everything stayed roughly the same then you would make on average of 75 points on every 100 selections. These are averages though so don't expect it to be the same all the time. You may find these figures fluctuate a lot - especially during long losing runs or longer than normal winning spells.
But, what if you only had available to you one of the figures but not another?
If you only knew your average winning odds were [6.0]:
100/6.0 = 16.67 strike rate (to break even)
And, if you knew your strike rate was 25.
100 - 25 = 75
75 / 25 = [3.0] average winning odds (to break even)
Once you have these figures you can then spend your time looking for ways to improve them. You may find entering the market earlier or using BSP helps improve AWO. You could even just try to ask for a slightly higher price when placing your bet into the market, to see if that helps. Your alternative is to increase your strike rate by improving your selection process and finding more winners.
Monitoring your strike rate and AWO is an ongoing process and it should become more accurate as your archive of results grows.
Your strike rate can also help you work out your likely longest losing run which in turn helps you decide on the best stake size...
...But, of course, that's one for another article.
For a selection of Betting Apps for Betfair.com please see the Betfair App Directory