Walter Toner is a retired IT consultant living on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. He comes to Betfair after decades of working in financial services industry. He has been fascinated with probabilities and odds since he was first introduced to the Racing Form when he was 12.
Eventually his love of sports, wagering, and technology coalesced into a theory and then a concept of betting evaluation that he refers to as the Performance Index. For soccer, by measuring and collecting the betting patterns in individual matches, longer term team ratings can be ascertained via regression modelling.
These ratings, the Performance Index, are then be fed into an algorithm to determine a fair value odds lines for future matches. “Fair value” is meant to be the odds price above which a team is a favourable wager to back or below which it is advantageous to lay odds. In other words, fair value is the odds equilibrium level.
For his column and studies, Walter maintains what he believes is the most comprehensive database of football scores and odds. He is always eager to discuss wagering systems, concepts, strategies, and data.