World Cup Betting / Tobias Gourlay / 11 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

The Super Eagles are landing in South Africa. Tobias Gourlay expects them to come down with a bump.

"The Super Eagles are still to find even a shadow of a replacement for Jay-Jay Okocha."

Venue: Ellis Park, Johannesburg
UK Kick-Off Time: 1500

Diego Maradona's first World Cup match as Argentina coach sees his team go up against Nigeria, the second favourites to qualify from Group B. No stadium at South Africa 2010 is further above sea level than Ellis Park, Johannesburg, but teams really should know how to prepare for matches at high altitude by now, even those with El Diego in charge.

If altitude is to be a considerable factor, it will most likely be so in the middle of the tournament, when matches will involve teams that have just arrived on the Highveld from sea level. These two have had plenty long enough to acclimatise.

Will the Jabulani be unplayable so high up? Probably not, but Argentina's home-based players will have fewer excuses than most if it is - the ball was used throughout their country's 2010 Clausura tournament.

Match Odds

Argentina are third-favourites to lift the trophy and easily odds-on ([1.52]) to make a winning start to the competition. It's their brilliant attackers that dazzle their backers, but Messi, Higuain, Tevez, Aguero, Palermo and Milito won't all be on the field all of the time. In fact, selecting six forwards in the squad has left Maradona with little cover for his favourite player, Javier Mascherano, who will surely pick up bookings as he goes through the tournament.

That won't be a problem just yet, though, and for this match it's hard to oppose the South Americans, who have won four opening games in a row since their memorable defeat to Cameroon 20 years ago and haven't drawn any of the 19 games they've played under Maradona.

First Goalscorer/To Score

It's widely held that Lionel Messi has not yet been as good for Argentina as he has been for Barcelona. He is, however, one of only two players in Argentina's finals squad to have scored more than once in the Albiceleste's 18 qualifying games; he scored four in all, three of which were first goals.

The other player with more than one, Kun Aguero, is less sure of his place in the starting XI than he once was. That's because Maradona has belatedly acknowledged the fine club form of Gonzalo Higuain, who will probably be the only Argentine higher up the pitch than Messi at kick-off on Saturday.

Among Nigeria's 23 for the finals, Victor Obinna lead the way in qualifying, scoring four times in nine matches, but it's not clear that any of them will find the net in this game.

Argentina Win to Nil

The real ages of Nigeria forwards Obafemi Martins and Yakubu might never be known, but their physical attributes are not in doubt. Unfortunately for them, they probably won't get the ball in many dangerous positions at the weekend because the Super Eagles are still to find even a shadow of a replacement for Jay-Jay Okocha.

Lars Lagerback has had only three weeks with the squad to choose a playmaker and would have used John Obi Mikel, who played behind the strikers to little effect at January's Africa Cup of Nations, but Mikel's injured now and the Swede's options are even more limited.

Maradona's use of four specialist centre-backs in his back four has intrigued many ahead of the tournament, but the tactic might serve him well here. If the full-backs don't move forward much, they will be less vulnerable to their opponents' quick wingers and overlapping full-backs. And with little to worry Martin Demichelis and Walter Samuel in the middle except their own lapses in concentration, there's value in backing Argentina to take three points and a clean sheet at [2.5].

Both Teams to Score?

Lagerback might not be able to conjure a playmaker into the thin air of the Highveld, but his long record as Sweden's coach suggests his troops will be well-drilled. He has lots of strong defensive midfielders to choose from and Argentina's sedentary full-backs reduce their team's options in attack.

Of course, Messi might do something special, but, if you think Maradona's team will be less than the sum of its parts, you might not like the Win to Nil bet, in which case you could think about saying 'No' in the Both Teams to Score? market at [1.93]. We've looked above at why chances for Nigeria to score might be few and far between and this bet offers a bit of additional cover if it turns out El Diego really doesn't know what he's doing.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market (by Matthew Walton)

The market clearly expects goals in this game but you'd be hard pushed to find a set of statistics which support this view.

In qualifying Argentina generated 43 goals in 18 matches (2.38) whilst Nigeria's matches produced only 25 in 12 (2.08). Maradona's side were 9:9 for over/under 2.5 goals whilst the Africans were 8:4 in favour of the lower mark.

Moreover, in recent friendlies since making it here to South Africa the Nigerians have played eight times (17 goals) and only twice gone over the 2.5 goals. Argentina do have a good record of goals in recent friendlies (21 in 6 games, 5 times over 2.5 goals) but against poor opponents like Canada and Haiti.

Throw in three previous meetings which have only produced a total of 4 goals and for all the hype of Argentina's flair players, and Nigeria's flamboyant past, the under at [2.08] looks best.

Best Bet: Argentina to Win to Wil @ [2.5] v Nigeria

Recommended Bet: Back Argentina at [1.52] to beat Nigeria

Tags: Adidas Jabulani, Argentina, Diego Maradona, Gonzalo Higuain, Lars Lagerback, Lionel Messi, Nigeria, Tobias Gourlay, World Cup Betting, World Cup Tips