World Cup Betting: Why are the World Champions only the sixth favourites?

Teams / Ben Lyttleton / 13 January 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

On the eve of the World Cup draw, Ben Lyttleton wonders why the defending champions Italy, managed by one of the greatest footballing minds in the game, trade as the 16.5 sixth-favourites to defend their title.

"Currently 17.0 to win the tournament, with a guaranteed spot in the top
group of seeds, a coach who is expert in the art of tournament play, and the
possibility of Totti changing his mind and returning to the fold, Italy's price does look a little long."

The World Cup draw takes place on Friday in South Africa, but it will be before then, on Wednesday, that FIFA's executive committee announce the seedings for that draw. It's likely that Portugal, ([23.0]) to win the tournament, and Holland, ([17.0]), will be in the second pot of sides which means that they will be drawn alongside a top seed in a possible Group of Death.

Of the likely top-seeded sides, with the exception of host nation South Africa, only France, ([19.0]), and Italy, ([17.0]), are priced anywhere close to that region. France's price is a reflection of their troubles in qualifying and a lack of confidence in coach Raymond Domenech. But Italy's price is another matter: this team are the current
world champions and aside from that, after a two-year hiatus from the job, have the same World Cup-winning coach in Marcello Lippi. So why are they such a long price to become the first back-to-back World Cup winners since Brazil in 1958 and 1962?

What happens in qualifying usually bears very little resemblance to what goes on in the tournament itself ­ Brazil almost missed out entirely on World Cup 2002 before winning it ­ though Italy were unbeaten in a tricky group that contained Republic of Ireland, Bulgaria and Montenegro. It was more the manner of their qualifying that failed to impress, while it was a similar story in the recent friendly performances against Holland (0-0) and
Sweden (1-0).

Lippi deserves some shred of sympathy: his second spell in charge has been totally overshadowed by his refusal to select Antonio Cassano into the squad. The controversial Sampdoria playmaker has been in superb form for his club but still Lippi ignores him. The pitch invader who ran the length of the field wearing a Superman T-shirt with the words "Call up Cassano" on the back in the match against Holland failed to move the coach, and the campaign for Cassano has even reached rugby union, where a banner at Italy's recent match with New Zealand at the San Siro read, "Mallet, Can you call up Cassano?"

Aside from personality issues which surely make Cassano a tricky character to have in a team-camp for a potential four-week spell in South Africa, Lippi must also consider the technical issue of what role he could play in the Azzurri side. At Sampdoria, he has the freedom to roam across the front-line, he is the first player his team-mates look to pass to, and he makes the whole team tick. There is no such liberated position in Lippi's side although one thing is very clear: the team does miss a creative spark that someone like Cassano could provide.

That is why Lippi has been keeping an eye on Alex Del Piero's slow return to the fold at Juventus, and admitted that he is still a fan of Francesco Totti, who is currently in international retirement but with nine goals in as many games this season, might yet be persuaded to return to the national side.

Lippi has shrugged off this creative issue and claimed that in 2006, there were lots of problems that bedvilled the squad as well. He is right, but that was the Calciopoli scandal which actually bonded the group, as did the terrible injury to their former team-mate Gianluca Pessotto midway through the tournament. To really make their point, the doom-mongers compared Italy's result against Holland just before the 2006 World Cup ­ a 3-1 win in Amsterdam ­ to the turgid goalless draw last month.

Currently ([17.0]) to win the tournament, with a guaranteed spot in the top group of seeds, a coach who is expert in the art of tournament play, and the possibility of Totti changing his mind and returning to the fold, Italy's price does look a little long. Bear in mind that with a favourable draw on Friday ­ and it's only a one in four shot that they will get stuck with Portugal or Holland ­ that price will come in. The next few days, before the draw is made, is the time to take a chance on those teams whose prices seem generous: others include Ivory Coast at [26.0] and USA at [100.0].