Teams / James Eastham / 11 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

These two are the outsiders in Group B, which could make for a tense, terse encounter on Saturday lunchtime, writes James Eastham.

"South Korea's recent games have been low-scoring, with both teams finding the net in just one of their last 10 internationals. A defeat for either side here could be fatal, so I expect a game of few chances."

Venue: Port Elizabeth
UK Kick-Off Time: 12:30

Greece's squad suffered a scare on Thursday when three of their number returned to their hotel rooms to find they'd been robbed of £1,800 worth of goods. The press officer played down the incident but it might have shaken up one or two players.

Worse for Greece is the absence of Bologna centre-half Vangelis Moras with an ankle injury. South Korea have better news - Park Ji-Sung is expected to recover from the hamstring injury that forced him out of his side's 1-0 defeat against Spain in their final warm-up friendly last weekend.

Match Odds

Greece's price of [2.82] to win the game reflects the fact the market gives them a slightly better chance of qualifying from the group (they're [2.64] to get through, as opposed to South Korea's [3.4]). What it doesn't reflect is their two disappointing pre-tournament friendly performances: they drew 2-2 v North Korea before losing 2-0 to Paraguay last week.

South Korea's setback against opponents of Spain's calibre was understandable, but their 1-0 defeat against Belarus on May 30 was more surprising. Before that, however, they produced a morale-boosting 2-0 victory over Japan. Huh Jung-Moo's side are [2.98] to beat Greece, with the draw [3.2].

First Goalscorer / To Score

Theofanis Gekas was not just Greece's top scorer (10 goals) during the qualifying phase; he was the top scorer in the entire European zone. Little surprise, then, that he heads the 'To Score' market at [2.92] . Looking elsewhere in Rehhagel's squad is simply too risky: Gekas netted 48% of all Greece's qualifying goals.

Park Chu Young is a gifted, energetic striker, but a loss of form and injuries plagued him during the second-half of 2009-10. The Monaco striker is [3.35] to find the net, which is too small for a player as likely to create as score goals.

Both Teams to Score?

Stats fans will recall that Greece's three knock-out games en route to winning Euro 2004 contained just two goals in normal time, with four clean sheets in total. Their qualifying games for this tournament were more open but in what looks like being a tight group, I expect Rehhagel to revert to the dour, defensive tactics that have served him so well in the past.

South Korea's recent games have been low-scoring, with both teams finding the net in just one of their last 10 internationals. A defeat could be fatal for either side, so I expect few chances. 'No' is the smart pick in the Both Teams to Score? market at [1.78].

Over/Under 1.5 goals

With so few top-class goalscorers on the pitch and both teams fully aware that, as the third- and fourth-ranked sides in the group, a defeat may spell the end of their hopes of reaching the second round, I'm expecting dour, defensive football. At the last World Cup, six of 16 (38%) opening games for sides featured under 1.5 goals. I expect South Korea v Greece to fall into that category this time.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals market (by Matthew Walton)

Trading at [1.52] there is a case to be made for the under 2.5 goals being short, a little too short, for this match. Over the last six World Cups, since the format changed in 1986, the first round of group matches (all 84 of them) have an over/under ratio of 34:50. This equates to true odds of [2.47] for over 2.5 goals and [1.68] for under that mark.

A dilemma for traders ... the statistics say a certain outcome will occur (i.e. under 2.5 goals) but the market offers no great value for that selection.

South Korea's qualifiers averaged under 2 goals/game and all 5 friendlies since have been under 2.5 goals. Greece, likewise, aren't noted for their firepower (remember Euro 2004).

As such a creative approach would be to hold fire, hope for an early goal in the match and then back under 2.5 goals at a bigger in-running price.

Best Bet:Back 'No' in Both Teams to Score? market @ [1.78].

Other Recommended Bet: Back Under 1.5 goals @ [2.62].

Tags: Group B, Otto Rehhagel, Park Chu Young, Park Ji Sung, South Africa 2010, Theofanis Gekas, World Cup betting, World Cup preview