Teams / James Eastham / 13 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Goals have been in plentiful supply in their warm-up games, but only one of these teams is good enough to win at the Free State Stadium on Monday afternoon, writes James Eastham.

"Cameroon's likely starting line-up contains two France-based players that are excellent in the air. If the side gets their set-piece deliveries right, Stephane Mbia and Jean Makoun stand a decent chance of scoring at some point during the group stages."

Venue: Bloemfontain
UK Kick-Off Time: 15:00

It's hard to say which of these two sides is in worse form going into the match - Cameroon have conceded seven goals in their final two friendlies v Serbia (3-4) and Portugal (1-3) while Japan needed a draw against lowly opponents Zimbabwe to bring to an end a run of four straight defeats.

Samuel Eto'o has had a war of words with Cameroon legend Roger Milla in the build-up to the finals, although many commentators back home believe the bust-up between their country's two greatest strikers will make the Indomitable Lions stronger.

Match Odds

Cameroon are [2.16] to claim three points, with the draw [3.35] and Japan [4.0]. I've tipped Cameroon to be the African side that goes the furthest in the competition, so I'm happy to back them to make a winning start.

Man for man, Paul Le Guen's side are considerably stronger than their Japanese opponents. Well-informed observers in Asia say this is the weakest side Japan have ever sent to a World Cup finals, and those four consecutive defeats in recent friendlies - versus Ivory Coast, England, South Korea and Australia - did nothing to dispel the feeling that Takeshi Okada's team will end up as Group E's whipping boys.

First Goalscorer / To Score

Cameroon's likely starting line-up contains two France-based players that are excellent in the air. Stephane Mbia (Marseille) and Jean Makoun (Lyon) are sent forward whenever the teams they play for in Ligue 1 win corners or free-kicks, so if Cameroon get their set-piece deliveries right, the pair stand a decent chance of scoring at some point during the group stages. Makoun is [7.6] to find the net anytime, with Mbia available at [11.5]. Wait for team news, and then split your stakes between the pair if both start the match.

Japan's main problem is a lack of goals, so nobody really stands out in their camp. Four players topped their scoring list in the qualifiers with three goals each.

Asian handicap

If the [2.16] on Cameroon is too short for you, consider backing the Africans with a -0.75-goal start on the Asian handicap at [2.48]. With this bet, only half your stake will win (with the other half being returned) if Cameroon win by only one goal, but you'll make a bigger profit should Cameroon win by two goals or more. It's been a low-scoring World Cup so far - at the time of writing there've been only seven goals at an average of 1.4 goals a game - but South Korea still managed to run-up a two-goal winning margin against Greece.

Half With Most Goals

Japan really struggle during the second-half of games, so you might like to consider the second-half to have the most goals on the basis that Cameroon could run away with the game towards the end. That bet is available at [2.16].

A speculative alternative would be backing 'Yes' on the Cameroon Win Both Halves market at [7.9] although this obviously requires Cameroon to be leading at HT as well. Backing Cameroon to win both halves is different from backing Cameroon-Cameroon ([3.8]) on the Half-time/Full-time market, as you need Cameroon to win both 45 minutes of football.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market (by Matthew Walton)

These sides have met 3 times in the last 10 years and with each match making up at under 2.5 goals (2-0, 0-0, 0-2) it would be logical to expect their fourth meeting to go the same way.

However, Cameroon have made up at over 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 20 internationals and Japan's record shows 11 of 20 being over that mark. In other words, these two countries are more than capable of scoring/conceding in 90 minutes.

It's a classic choice between head-to-head form and general performance data ... which one takes preference? In betting terms it must be the former, more so when you consider general scoring patterns in early group matches and that in a tight group a low-scoring draw would probably suit both sides.

Like South Korea/Greece, maybe improve the available [1.59] for under 2.5 goals by hoping for an early goal and then trading at what will be a bigger price

Best Bet: Cameroon to beat Japan @ [2.16]

Other Recommended Bet: Jean Makoun and Stephane Mbia to score anytime at [7.6] and [11.5] respectively (split your stakes)

Tags: Cameroon, Japan, Jean Makoun, Paul Le Guen, Roger Milla, Samuel Eto'o, South Africa 2010, Stephane Mbia, World Cup betting, World Cup preview