Match Previews / Dave Farrar / 05 July 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Uruguay have played thrilling football and been involved in memorable matches but Dave Farrar believes that Holland, bidding to win their first World Cup, will prove too strong on Tuesday night.

"For once, maybe Holland have timed their run perfectly. I think that [1.67] is a fair price for the Dutch to beat Uruguay in 90 minutes."

This is certainly not a semi-final that many would have predicted, even last week, but Holland's quest for a first ever World Cup looks in good shape. If they can defeat the last remaining non-European side, they will be into a final which would either be a repeat of their 1974 nightmare, or one which would guarantee a new name on the trophy. No one is giving Uruguay a chance here, and having won the Champions League with Inter Milan, Wesley Sneijder is on the brink of adding the biggest prize of all. The Dutchman is looking like a near certainty for the Ballon D'Or come December.

Match Odds

Holland are [1.67] to win the game in 90 minutes, and I have to confess I was expecting them to be a little bit shorter. That's not to say that I don't give Uruguay a chance, just that Oscar Tabarez's side look tired and you can't help but feel that their dramatic victory over Ghana will have taken an awful lot out of them, and they may be on their last legs. They're without Luis Suarez and Jorge Fucile, and while I'm sure that Uruguayan minds are ready to go, I worry about bodies.

Holland's progress has been almost entirely against type. What they're supposed to do is play excellent, swashbuckling football throughout the tournament and then, just like in 1974, forget to win the trophy. But this time they've taken a while to get going. They looked sluggish in their group but were good enough to win it, then stuttered a little past Slovakia, before producing a rousing comeback to beat Brazil. But the second half of that game is the only time that they've looked at their best. I wouldn't let that dishearten me, though. For once, maybe they've timed their run perfectly, for once maybe their peaking just when it matters. I think that [1.67] is a fair price for the Dutch to win in 90 minutes, and much though I've loved Uruguay at this tournament, I fear that their time in it could be coming to an end.

First Goalscorer/To Score

Apart from the ridiculously good Diego Forlan, Uruguay's two outstanding players here have been the defensive midfielders Egidio Arevalo and Diego Perez. They have provided a formidable screen for the centre halves, and I'm not sure that Tabarez's backline would look quite as impressive were it not for the presence of the midfield diggers. A worrying sign against Ghana though, was that both Arevalo and Perez looked tired. They were being overrun in midfield areas, and looked vulnerable when Ghana's athletic midfield started to run at them and find space behind them. Sulley Muntari wasn't closed down for his goal, and there were numerous occasions when a better final ball would have punished them both.

Uruguay's problem here is that they're up against a team which has turned finding space into an art form. Wesley Sneijder could have a field day if he gets into positions behind Perez and Arevalo, and his four goals already here show that he's in great form in front of goal. I'd rather back him to score than the capricious Robin Van Persie or the honest but uninspiring Dirk Kuyt, and if you add Nestor Muslera's susceptibility against long range shots into the equation, Sneijder should give you a run for your money at [4.0]. Arjen Robben is another clear threat for the same reasons, but his price is shorter, and I don't really see why. In the context of his Bundelsiga season, yes, but not this tournament.

Netherlands Total Goals

Holland have only beaten one team here by more than one goal, and that was Denmark in their opening game (although they were seconds away from doing the same to Slovakia). They're [2.34] conceding a goal start to Uruguay, and given that Diego Forlan will have to play up front either on his own, or play behind Sebastian Abreu, there's every chance that the South Americans will fail to score, which means that two Dutch goals would be enough for you to win on the Asian Handicap. That said, two Dutch goals or more is priced at [2.1], and that gives you the insurance against Forlan finding a way to expose a pair of occasionally rickety centre halves. For the sake of a couple of points, that's the bet for me. I think that Sneijder and co could overrun Uruguay, and bring their wonderful story to an end.

Over/Under 2.5 goals (by Matthew Walton)

At the last six World Cups, since the modern tournament format came into play, there have only been two SF's which have made up at more than 2.5 goals (one each in 1994 & 1998). So maybe we shouldn't expect too many goals in Cape Town.

That said, Uruguay only just favour the lower make-up in their five matches here to date (3:2) and Holland are actually 3:2 in favour of the higher figure themselves. This makes odds of [1.64] for the under and [2.54] for over 2.5 goals a plausible option whichever way you want to play the market.

However, given the defensive strength of both sides (Holland have conceded a mere three goals in five games thus far, Uruguay only two), the absence of Luis Suarez for the South Americans and the tradition of these last four matches, the percentage call does seem to favour the lower figure.

Not a huge price at [1.64] but the logical call for this high-stakes encounter.

Best Bet: Dave Farrar Says: Back two Netherlands goals or more @ [2.1]

Recommended Bet: Back Wesley Sneijder to score @ [4.0]

Tags: Dave Farrar, football betting, Holland, Uruguay, Wesley Sneijder, World Cup betting