Match Previews / Dave Farrar / 25 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Korea have probably already done enough to make this campaign a successful one in the eyes of their passionate fans. Uruguay on the other hand will think they're here for the long haul and when you have Diego Forlan playing out of his skin, who can blame them, asks Dave Farrar.

"There’s one name which jumps out at you in this market, and that’s the name to go with. Diego Forlan has looked like a man on a mission at World Cup 2010, and whether he’s leading the line or dropping back to help the team in midfield he has oozed quality. "

Match: Uruguay v Korea Republic
Venue: Port Elizabeth
UK Kick Off Time: 15.00

The route to the semi-final seems to have opened up for Uruguay, and the unsung heroes of South America richly deserve a place in the quarters at least. If this well disciplined group of players beat Korea Republic, as they should, then they will face either USA or Ghana in the quarters, and would be favourites to advance to a likely semi-final against Brazil. The tournament so far has been a triumph for Oscar Tabarez, and the same can be said for Huh Jung Moo and Korea Republic. They showed immense spirit to come back from a trouncing at the hands of Argentina and going a goal down against Nigeria to finally scrape through. Everything that the Koreans achieve from here on in is a bonus.

Match Odds

Korea Republic have scored in each of their games so far, and here they come up against the best defensive team in the tournament. Uruguay are yet to concede a goal here in South Africa, and, while they've been aided by the implosion of France, they haven't really put a foot wrong.

Oscar Tabarez has a simple plan: keep the opposition out and rely on Diego Forlan to weave his magic. It's worked a treat so far, and the Uruguayans are generously priced at [1.93] to win the game in 90 minutes.

Remember that this is a Korea Republic team which struggled in the opening half hour against Nigeria, and but for some awful finishing, would have been out of the tournament. The pundits will talk about the high energy and hard work of the Koreans, but that comes close to lapsing into cliché and I don't think that they're good enough to trouble Uruguay at the back. There's a chance that the game will go into extra time, but I'm happy to back the quality team at a price which is too big.

First Goalscorer/To Score

There's one name which jumps out at you in this market, and that's the name to go with. Diego Forlan has looked like a man on a mission at World Cup 2010, and whether he's leading the line or dropping back to help the team in midfield he has oozed quality.

I'm not normally a fan of tipping the obvious, but with Luis Suarez looking a little underwhelming at the tournament so far, and Edinson Cavani his usual inconsistent self, Forlan is the big goalscoring option for Uruguay. He's a shade of odds against to get on the scoresheet, and I think that's fair enough, and am happy to take the price on a man who is one of the best finishers in the world taking his chance against a set of defenders who won't have faced many players as good as him.

Uruguay Clean Sheet

Uruguay haven't conceded a goal here so far, and for all Korea Republic's ability in forward areas, I think that the Asian team will be struggling to break down an extremely well marshalled unit. The South Americans are [2.1] to keep a clean sheet and I think that's an excellent way of supporting a team which has a solid defensive record against a team which may well be out of its depth. Uruguay won't take too many chances anyway, but if they go 1-0 up, as seems likely, they'll be incredibly hard to penetrate.

Correct Score

There's not much appeal in the Bookings Odds or Corners Odds markets, both of which seem to be about right, although if I were to play, then the statistics would suggest that going low in both would be the correct thing to do. Don't be sucked into the 1960s idea that Uruguay are impossibly brutal.

Aside from Nicolas Lodeiro's sending off in the opening game, they've actually been very well disciplined. I'm happy to stick with Uruguay to win and Forlan to score as my main bets, but the [6.6] about a Uruguay 1-0 win, given the way that the game is likely to develop, is also appealing. And if you want to be really brave, then take a look at the Scorecast market, and see what you can get matched on Forlan/1-0.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market (By Matthew Walton)

R16 matches traditionally produce few goals. The last six World Cups, since the format changed in 1986, have seen 48 matches generate an average of 2.33 goals/game. Of these the overwhelming trend is for under 2.5 goals at 30:18.

That's 63% with a low make-up, equating to average odds of [1.58].

Interesting these two nations have met twice in recent times, both in Seoul, both won by Uruguay 2-0. In fact five meetings in total, since 1982, are 3:2 for under 2.5 goals.

Data slightly offset by the fact that so far in the finals Uruguay and Korea have played six games with a 3:3 split for the over/under. Moreover, coming into this tournament the Asians were certainly low-score specialists but Uruguay marginally favoured the higher figure (13:12 in last 25 internationals).

Makes this a tight call with under 2.5 goals [1.57] a trade short of value - better to look for an early goal and take a bigger in-running price.

Best Bet: Dave Farrar says: Back Uruguay to beat Korea Republic @ [1.93]

Recommended Bet: Back Diego Forlan to score @ [2.4]

Tags: Diego Forlan, South Korea football team, South Korea players, Uruguay coach, Uruguay World Cup team