Match Previews / James Eastham / 24 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

One of the most-eagerly awaited games of the opening phase may turn into something of a damp squib as there's very little at stake, but there are still some outstanding betting opportunities on offer, writes James Eastham.

"Kaka's ludicrous sending-off was the only red card either side has suffered, and Brazil have picked up only one other booking in two games. Portugal have averaged 1.5 yellow cards a game, so this match is the ideal opportunity to lay Bookings Odds at 9pts and above."

Venue: Durban
UK Kick-Off Time: 15:00

Introduction

Brazil have already qualified for the second round so this game is something of a dead rubber for them, although they need a draw at least to claim top spot in the group. Kaka is suspended following his controversial red card in Brazil's 3-1 win over Ivory Coast, and Dunga is likely to rest several other key players. Julio Baptista is favourite to replace Kaka, while Elano is battling to overcome a calf injury.

It would take a remarkable combination of results for Portugal to miss out on the last 16: they would need to lose and Ivory Coast to beat North Korea, with a combined shift of '10' in the goal difference tallies in the process (e.g. Portugal losing by five, Ivory Coast winning by five).

Match Odds

The fact that neither side needs to win to be assured of a place in the next round casts a shadow over the Match Odds market. How committed to victory will Brazil be? A draw would be enough for them to secure top spot and would also allow Portugal to emerge with their heads held high from their encounter against the current favourites to win the competition, so the stalemate has to be the smart pick at [3.15].

Brazil are [2.32], which is a fair price given their two solid performances so far. Portugal will attract some takers at [3.9] following their 7-0 mauling of North Korea, but I'd rather see how they cope with stiffer opposition before getting excited about their prospects, particularly as they laboured against Ivory Coast.

First Goalscorer / To Score

Question marks over team selection make this a tricky market concerning Brazil. Luis Fabiano rewarded Dunga's faith in him with an excellent two-goal performance against Ivory Coast and he's favourite to find the net this time at [2.72], but I'd wait for team news before backing him or any of his team-mates. Nilmar - who may be handed his first start - is [3.25], Robinho [3.45] and attack-minded left-back Michel Bastos - who has averaged a goal every three games in the French League and Europe over the past couple of seasons - a tempting [7.0].

Liedson [3.95] and Huga Almeida [4.1] both got on the scoresheet for Portugal against North Korea but, much like the now-retired Pauleta, the pair have problems finding the net against higher-class opposition. Brazil will be alert to Raul Meireles and Tiago's well-timed runs into the penalty area following the midfielders' excellent goalscoring performances against North Korea, but I'd still rather back them at [7.8] and [10.5] respectively than either of Portugal's largely unproven centre-forwards.

Bookings Odds

This game matters, but not enough for either side to dive into tackles unnecessarily and risk picking up bookings or red cards that could rule them out of future games. The rivalry between Portugal and Brazil is fierce - if you live in London, just head down to Stockwell to see how much it matters to the Portuguese - but even national pride will be tempered by the need to be professional for the sake of potential future success in the tournament.

Both sides have played fairly and cleanly so far, with Kaka's ludicrous red card the only sending-off either team has experienced. Brazil have picked up only one other yellow card in their first two games, while Portugal have averaged 1.5 yellow cards a match.

This game is an ideal opportunity to lay 9pts or above in the Bookings Odds market. A yellow card is worth 2pts and a red card worth 5pts - so as long as there are four bookings or fewer, or one red card and two yellow cards or fewer, you'll make a profit.

Both Teams to Score

Having seen Portugal slam seven goals past South Korea and watched Brazil systematically dismantle Ivory Coast's defensive plans earlier this week, the temptation is to blithely back both teams to score at [2.00]. And it's actually not a bad wager considering that Brazil's excellent back four has switched off in both their games to date once the points have seemed secure. They allowed North Korea to score arguably the most popular consolation goal in the tournament's history in their opening match, and Didier Drogba ghosted unmarked into the box to pull a goal back for the Ivorians last Sunday.

But I would back both teams to score only if you think Brazil will lead comfortably going into the later stages, because it's difficult to see Dunga's side easing off while the score is level or Portugal lead. And, statistically, the odds are against you - both teams have scored in only 15 of 40 games so far, which equates to odds of [2.63].

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market (By Matthew Walton)

With Spain misfiring in Group H it's unclear whether winning this group will actually be as important as first thought. In this respect a fully committed Brazilian performance isn't guaranteed (as they're through whatever the result) whilst Portugal probably need just a point given their considerable goal difference advantage over the Ivory Coast.

This backdrop muddies the waters of a match that would normally be a certain call for over 2.5 goals - Brazil in 1998, 2002, 2006 and here in 2010 are 14:7 in favour of the higher figure whilst Portugal have just scored an absolute hatful against South Korea.

However, it's easy to be misled by Portugal as for all the flair players they undoubtedly possess, their matches aren't renowned for their free-scoring nature.

This game pits statistics against circumstance and the market may well have it right with the under 2.5 goals [1.70] looking marginally the more attractive option here in Durban.

Best Bet: James Eastham says: Lay Bookings Odds 9pts and Above @ [2.28].
Other Recommended Bet: Portugal v Brazil draw @ [3.15].

Tags: Brazil, Hugo Almeida, Kaka, Liedson, Luis Fabiano, Nilmar, Portugal, Raul Meireles, Robinho, South Africa 2010, Tiago, World Cup betting preview