Match Previews / Dave Farrar / 10 July 2010 / 1 Comments Free £25 Bet

One team is going to win football's biggest prize for the first time on Sunday night. So will the European champions become the World Champions or will the Oranje's long suffering fans finally have something to celebrate? Dave Farrar selects the best bets for the biggest game of all.

"I think that the European Champions will become World Champions on Sunday night, but at [2.16] to win the game, and [1.6] to win the Cup, they’re correctly priced to do so."

Venue: Soccer City, Johannesburg
UK Kick Off Time: 19.30

Blimey, it's taken a while, but we're finally here. There'll be a new name on the World Cup roll of honour come Sunday night, however long it takes. I have to say that my inclination is that it's pretty hard to find a value bet in a match of this magnitude, and so it's a case of small stakes and taking a punt on your opinion of what might happen, rather than having a lumpy bet on something you might perceive as value. There'll be better opportunities to come next season, and a bet on Sunday night should be to heighten your enjoyment, rather than radically alter your Betfair account balance.

Match Odds

We have to try and find a winner though, and that means working out what kind of game we're likely to see. Both of these teams have built their campaigns on keeping possession, and have done so to great effect, Spain in particular. It's incredible to think that Vicente Del Bosque's team started the World Cup as favourites on Betfair to finish as tournament top scorers, and yet it's Germany (13 at time of writing) and the Netherlands (12) who have led the way in that regard. Spain have scored just seven times, and their knockout stage wins have been a model of consistency. They strangle their opponents, and then they score a late goal to win 1-0. It's happened against Portugal, Paraguay and Germany, and Bert Van Maarwijk must try to make sure that he doesn't allow it to happen to his team. I'm not sure that the Dutch are good enough though. They come into this match on the back of an incredible 25 match unbeaten run, but the only victory during that period that has made you sit up and take notice was the one against Brazil, and I'm still convinced that Brazil were stymied by Dunga's tactics.

The Oranje did well to win, of course they did, but if Brazil had gone for their throats at 1-0, rather than sat back, then it would have been over. Aside from that, the Netherlands have beaten a toothless Denmark, an entertaining but average Japan, and a dreadful Cameroon. They then put away Slovakia and Uruguay, with Brazil in between. I know that Spain lost to Switzerland, but since then they've looked rock solid against a better line up of teams, and they deserve to be favourites to win the final in normal time.

Spain can get at the heart of the Dutch defence, and then at their shaky goalkeeper Maarten Stekelenburg. I can't forget the way that Slovakia's quick passing disrupted the Dutch in the second half of that last 16 game. Spain play exactly the same way, but do it a lot better. I think that the European Champions will become World Champions on Sunday night, but at [2.16] to win the game, and [1.6] to win the Cup, they're correctly priced to do so.

First Goalscorer/To Score

David Villa is the most likely beneficiary of Spain's brilliant build up play, and only Andres Iniesta and Carles Puyol, aside from Barca's new megastar, have hit the net here for Spain. Villa's ability is factored into his price of [2.4] though, and with Vicente Del Bosque seeming pretty certain of naming an unchanged team on Sunday, it might be worth taking a chance on Pedro to grab the biggest goal of his career so far. He made a huge mistake in the semi-final when clean through, but can be forgiven that error, and should be praised for always getting into good positions. Remember how the pace of Dennis Rommedahl troubled the Dutch in their opening game, how Vladimir Weiss got in behind them too, and then imagine what Pedro might do. It was his shot that hit the post before Villa scored against Paraguay, and he has popped up time and again in dangerous areas. He might not have looked it so far at this tournament, but Pedro is a dangerous finisher, scored 12 in 22 starts for Barca last season and rates the value ahead of Villa at [5.6], with Andres Iniesta and his fantastically quick feet also worthy of consideration at [7.2].

Shown a Card

It's strange that Howard Webb has just come off the back of a Premier League season which he confesses hasn't been his best, and yet here he is in charge of the biggest game of all. There's a history of low bookings make ups in normal time in World Cup finals, but Webb's average card make up here has been 5.67. He won't be scared to show a yellow card when he needs to, and the most obvious candidate by far is Mark Van Bommel. The Dutchman has been a disgrace here and was lucky to stay on the field against both Brazil and Uruguay. It's amazing that the 90th minute card that he was shown against Uruguay was his first of the tournament, but it would be naïve to think that Webb hasn't watched videos of previous games, particularly the quarter and the semi. Referees wouldn't be human if they didn't go into a game with even a slightly prejudged idea of which players to watch out for, and Van Bommel will be top of the Yorkshireman's list. There's a chance that the Dutch midfield will be overrun at Soccer City, and that means that Van Bommel will have a lot of tackling to do. He must time every challenge to perfection, and I don't think that he will.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals (by Matthew Walton)

For arguably 'the biggest game in world football,' these matches produce a surprising number of goals. Admittedly recent finals (2006, 2002, 1994 and 1990) have all made-up under 2.5 goals but that still leaves 1998, 1986, 1982, 1978, 1974, 1970, 1966 etc as ample evidence that these aren't necessarily tense, hard-fought, low-scoring affairs.

Naturally, the profile of the two teams has much to do with this and the 2010 renewal has two similar sides in opposition - good both offensively and at the back. Sadly, in the modern game such situations tend to see the defences come out on top.

As such the market can be seen from both viewpoints. More so when one considers that Spain are 5:1 for under 2.5 goals here in South Africa whilst Holland are 4:2 in favour of the higher figure.

Throw in their recent head-to-head form - six matches in the last 30 years which are 4:2 for under 2.5 goals - and it's the lower figure [1.59] which shades the decision.

Best Bet: Dave Farrar says - Back Mark Van Bommel to be Shown a Card @ [2.2]

Back Pedro to Score @ [5.6]

Tags: Dave Farrar, David Villa, Holland, Mark Van Bommel, Pedro, South Africa 2010 betting, Spain, World Cup betting, World Cup Final betting