Match Previews / Tobias Gourlay / 01 July 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

The connoisseurs are complaining, but Tobias Gourlay sees little to dislike about Dunga's Brazil.

"Colourful footballing tradition encourages us to believe there is more to come from this Netherlands squad, but their displays in South Africa to date do not suggest that’s the case."

Venue: Port Elizabeth
UK Kick-Off Time: 1500

The Netherlands and Brazil got out of their groups easily and are unbeaten to this stage. Something has to give in Port Elizabeth on Friday afternoon and perhaps one of them will collapse under the burden of a colourful footballing tradition. Johan Cruyff has accused Dunga's team of being more boring than previous incarnations of the Selecao, but might that finger also be pointed at his beloved Oranje? They've been an un-brilliant shadow of the team that enthralled so many at Euro 2008 and no one's been sent home yet.

Match Odds

Dunga must find cover in midfield for the absent Elano and Ramires, but will stick with the wonky 4-2-3-1 that has worked very well for the last couple of years. Kaka and the full-backs, Maicon and Michel Bastos, will lead the counter-attacks that should penetrate the Netherlands' hitherto untested defence. Brazil have won the last 16 matches that Kaka, Robinho and Luis Fabiano have started together and all three are available for this game.

Injuries to Arjen Robben and now Rafael van der Vaart have prevented Bert van Marwijk from fielding all of his Fab Four at the same time in South Africa. Robin van Persie and Wesley Sneijder will start the game, but the coach tends to prefer Dirk Kuyt to van der Vaart anyway. If Kuyt starts on the left to accommodate Robben on the right, he will offer a bit more defensive protection to Giovanni van Bronckhorst. The rest of the team will be familiar.

The centre-backs are well protected by Nigel de Jong and Mark van Bommel in central midfield, but look like they could be caught too high up the pitch. Cracks in the Dutch squad are starting to appear off the field too. Even-money isn't normally a great price at which to back Team A to beat Team B, where Team B is unbeaten in 23 matches and hasn't conceded a goal from open play in the tournament so far, but Team A is a crack unit and they ain't gettin' on no plane just yet. Brazil are the selection.

First Goalscorer/To Score

As usual, Brazil's spearhead, Luis Fabiano, leads these markets. He has scored three times now, looks pretty sharp and is available at [2.4] to score anytime and [7.0] to notch the first goal of the game. The value in the prices on the daring full-backs has been mentioned here before, but diminishes with every game they play well in. If he starts in midfield, Dani Alves will be an interesting prospect at [11.0] or more. The Barcelona man has started only two games so far, but has had as many shots (nine) as anyone except Robinho and might get a go at free-kicks.

On the left of Brazil's defence, Juan and Michel Bastos had excellent games against Chile. The latter, however, is not a full-time full-back and must now keep track of Robben. The Dutchman made a good comeback - and scored - against Slovakia. He's more goal-scorer than provider these days - 23 goals and eight assists for Bayern Munich in 2009/10 - and has more appeal at [4.6] to score anytime than most of his colleagues. Van Persie [3.25] still does not seem to be up to full speed. Sneijder [5.7] is the only Dutchman to have scored more than once in the team's four games so far.

Brazil Win to Nil

The Netherlands have some very talented individuals, but van Marwijk's team is yet to give one of the virtuoso performances associated with Dutch teams of the past. Indeed, the Dutch have made a higher percentage of their passes (48%) from inside their own half than any other team. The coach recognised the need to win ugly as soon as he took the job, but has he emphasised pragmatic effectiveness too much?

That colourful footballing tradition encourages us to believe there is more to come from this Netherlands squad, but their displays in South Africa to date do not suggest that's the case. Moments of individual brilliance from Robben or Sneijder are a concern, but those two will not see as much of the ball as they have in previous matches, and, if this really is a dourly efficient (but limited) Dutch team, then the [3.3] about Brazil to win and keep a clean sheet is too long.

Half Time/Full Time

That stat about the Dutch passing the ball a lot inside their own half (thanks, Opta) is probably indicative of a side that will not risk being counter-attacked by the tournament favourites. As discussed, van Marwijk has no ideological commitment to entertaining the fans - not even Johan Cruyff - and might set up defensively for this game, relying on that aforementioned individual brilliance. Brazil should still break his side down eventually, but, if this is what he does, the Draw/Brazil double result [5.3] shouldn't be two points longer than the Brazil/Brazil alternative.

Over/Under 2.5 goals (by Matthew Walton)

Statistically speaking, these finals have produced some bizarre data - from spectacularly low returns in the first round of group matches (1.56 goals/game, 14:2 in favour of under 2.5 goals) to the equally unfamiliar productivity in the R16 games (2.63 goals/game, biased 5:3 towards over 2.5 goals).

This highlights the problems often encountered with 'data-driven' betting - do you give more credence to recent events or put greater store in long-term evidence? The answer must be the latter.

This is why we should go high for this match in Port Elizabeth. Both the Dutch (two out of four) and the Brazilians (three out of four) have rewarded backers of over 2.5 goals in this particular tournament but whether we look at past World Cup finals, qualifying or friendlies, there is ample evidence to support a high make-up at [2.38].

Sure, QF matches are traditionally low-scorers but these two sides have also met six times in the last 20 years generating over 2.5 goals five times. That's the clincher.

Best Bet: Back Brazil at [2.0] to beat Netherlands
Recommended Bet: Back Brazil Win to Nil at [3.3] v Netherlands

Tags: Arjen Robben, Bert van Marwijk, Brazil, Dani Alves, Dirk Kuyt, Dunga, Johan Cruyff, Kaka, Luis Fabiano, Netherlands, Robin van Persie, Robinho, Tobias Gourlay, Wesley Sneijder, World Cup Betting, World Cup Tips