Match Previews / Tobias Gourlay / 26 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

England usually play to the level of their opposition and Tobias Gourlay expects them to raise their game for Sunday's second-round clash with Germany. But will they be undone by a tactical flaw?

"Gareth Barry must be on high alert, but, even so, if Ozil is confirmed fit (and the impressive Schweinsteiger too) and England set up 4-4-2, Germany should be favourites."

Venue: Bloemfontein
UK Kick-Off Time: 1500

A match with Germany excites the English nation like no other. The Germans feel they have bigger rivalries - games with Argentina, Brazil and the Netherlands might all still be ahead of them at this tournament - but they should not take improving England lightly at the Free State Stadium. Bloemfontein is far above sea-level, but both sides have the resources and the expertise to be fully prepared for the effects of the thin air.

Match Odds

Now here's a thing: all of the four previous England-Germany clashes in the knockout stages of major tournaments have been drawn after 90 minutes. Is that a relevant statistic? Possibly. Certainly the draw ([3.25]) is a plausible full-time result on Sunday. What would happen after a draw? Well, in 1966 and 1970, England won in extra-time; more recently, Germany won on penalties in 1990 and 1996.

Slight doubts cloud the participation of three of Germany's players. Bastain Schweinsteiger, the newly promoted midfield general, Jerome Boateng, who has played at full-back, and Mesut Ozil all picked up minor injuries last time out against Ghana, but will probably be available. Ozil, who has shone brightest of the new stars (there haven't been many) of South Africa 2010, might be the most important player in this match.

A year ago, he administered a thrashing of Stuart Pearce's England U-21s in the final of the European Championships. Fabio Capello is more tactically alert than the man who has become his English advisor, but his apparent commitment to 4-4-2 might not serve him well here.

In Joachim Loew's 4-2-3-1, Ozil has twice come up against 4-4-2s in this tournament - against Australia and Ghana - and twice been the spare man in midfield. Germany have won both of those games. Without any numerical advantage against Serbia and also without the intelligent movements of Miroslav Klose for most of the game, Ozil was easily kept in hand by Dejan Stankovic.

Gareth Barry must be on high alert, but, even so, if Ozil is confirmed fit (and the impressive Schweinsteiger too) and England set up 4-4-2, Germany should be favourites. If something changes, the sides will probably be more evenly matched and the draw will look long again.

First Goalscorer/To Score

England struggled for goals in Group C. Wayne Rooney improved against Slovenia, but has only one goal in his last 10 internationals and hardly looks good value at [2.78] to score in this match. His likely strike partner - check the team-sheets before betting on these markets - is Jermain Defoe ([4.0]).

Defoe's records are those of a confidence player - he is very streaky - and one who does very well when he first joins a team. He scored in his last match and is very much the newbie in the England starting XI, so conditions seem right for the Tottenham man to strike again soon.

Germany scored four times in their opening match of the tournament, when many of their players were advantaged by their exposure to the Jabulani ball in the last six months of the Bundesliga. Perhaps other teams are getting used to it, for they have scored only once in their subsequent two matches. That latter goal was scored by Ozil ([6.4]). If he finds space between England's midfield and thus far miserly defence, he will be as well placed as anyone to hit the back of the net.

Both Teams to Score?

Neither side has been overflowing with goals recently, but there are reasons to suppose that both teams are as likely to score as not. Whether it's Jamie Carragher or Matthew Upson who plays alongside John Terry, the centre of England's defence will be short on pace. Left to look after themselves by England's attacking full-backs, German counter-attacks could easily overwhelm them. At the other end of the pitch, Germany's defence also looks vulnerable to counter-attacks. 'Yes' to both teams to score at [2.24] is a value bet.

Bookings Odds

Experienced Uruguayan referee Jorge Larrionda has taken charge of three South Africa 2010 matches so far, including one involving the notorious card magnets of Australia, and shown an average of four yellows (8pts) a game and no reds. Both of these sides have excellent disciplinary records (Klose's harsh sending-off aside) and it's hard to explain a price of [1.6] for 9pts and Above without recourse to crude expectations of jingoistic dislike leading to trouble. That might happen off the field, but probably not on it.

Over/under 2.5 goals (by Matthew Walton)
This match offers a classic illustration of how 'common sense' and statistics lead to two totally different strategies with regards to a betting market.

On the one hand, R16 ties historically produce few goals - under 2.5 is almost twice as likely to occur. Add to this two experienced, well-organised sides, a tense knock-out match and surely this game will produce few goals. Maybe 1-0 either way, a 1-1 draw at a push. Surely it's a back at [1.57] for under 2.5 goals.

But ... viewed the other way. England are 18:9 during Capello's reign in favour of a higher make-up, Germany generated 31 in 10 qualifiers and all three of their friendlies were over 2.5 goals. Ok, both these sides have been frugal in this competition but their 10 previous meetings are split 5:5 on the over/under figures.

Include this statistical data into the selection process and the [2.72] for over 2.5 goals might just provide the better value, and better justified, course of action.

Best Bet: Back Both Teams to Score at [2.24] in Germany v England
Recommended Bet: Back Jermain Defoe To Score at [4.0] v Germany

Tags: Bastian Schweinsteiger, England, Fabio Capello, Germany, Jermain Defoe, Jorge Larrionda, Mesut Ozil, Miroslav Klose, Tobias Gourlay, Wayne Rooney, World Cup Tips