Match Previews / Tobias Gourlay / 28 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

South America has had a terrific tournament so far, all five of its teams getting through to the second round, but something has to give now as Brazil take on Chile for a place in the quarter-finals. Tobias Gourlay reports.

"Dunga’s Brazil are one of the less exciting incarnations of the Selecao, but still favourites to win South Africa 2010. Marcelo Bielsa’s Chile are daring and tactically unusual. Their clash in Johannesburg might be the best match of the tournament so far."

Venue: Ellis Park, Johannesburg
UK Kick-Off Time: 1930

The teams that came out first and second from South America's 18-game qualification process for South Africa 2010 meet again in the second round of the finals tournament. Dunga's Brazil are one of the less exciting incarnations of the Selecao, but still favourites to win South Africa 2010. Marcelo Bielsa's Chile are daring and tactically unusual. Their clash in Johannesburg might be the best match of the tournament so far.

Match Odds

In qualifying, Brazil finished only a point ahead of Chile, but beat them 4-2 at home and 3-0 away. The Selecao has lost only five of 58 games under Dunga - one of the last 25 - and are [1.57] favourites to win through to the quarter-finals in 90 minutes. The coach has neither injuries nor suspensions to worry about and will surely start with the asymmetrical 4-2-3-1 that has served him well for a couple of years now.

In contrast, Bielsa's squad is depleted by both. Humberto Suazo, the star striker in qualifying, will not be fully fit, whether he's selected or not. Gary Medel and Waldo Ponce, two of Bielsa's back three at the tournament so far, are suspended, as is Marco Estrada, the defensive midfielder. Estrada is easily replaced by Carlos Carmona, who returns from a suspension of his own, but Medel and Ponce are bigger boots to fill.

At the other end of the pitch, they've been profligate in front of goal without Suazo and it's hard to recommend anything other than a defeat for them against a nation they have beaten only seven times in 65 previous encounters, even if they looked pretty good when they had 11 men on the pitch against Spain.

First Goalscorer/To Score

In the qualifying clashes, Nilmar scored a hat-trick, Luis Fabiano scored a brace, and Julio Baptista and Robinho got one each for Brazil. Something to note about Fabiano: 19 of his 27 international goals have come in braces or hat-tricks, which means he has scored anytime in fewer matches than his record suggests. He leads these markets though and, if Chile keep the high defensive line they used against Spain, he'll get in behind them and be as likely as anyone to find the back of the net. If you think he'll get one, think about saying 'Yes' to Hat-trick Scored? at [13.5].

Brazil's full-backs might get round the outside of Chile's three-man defence, but Maicon's value disappeared with his memorable goal against North Korea. Michel Bastos, the left-back who plays as a winger for Lyon, is twice the price of his more illustrious counterpart and a tempting punt at [13.0]. He scored 12 times in 29 Ligue one and Champions League game for his club this season, and has already taken six shots at goal in this tournament.

Among the Chileans, fitness doubts reduce the appeal of Suazo, South America's top-scorer in qualifying, leaving Udinese starlet Alexis Sanchez to lead the To Score market at [4.4]. He likes to run channels between centre-halves and full-backs, and might find space inside Michel Bastos.

Sending Off?

Chile's high-energy pressing game keeps them high up the field a lot of the time and leaves them vulnerable to quick counter-attacks. Players are not above professional fouling to give team-mates time to recover their defensive positions and often don't stay on their feet. They earned a couple of early bookings this way against Honduras, then picked up six more yellow cards against Switzerland, and four - including two for Estrada - against Spain.

Seven Chileans were sent off in qualifying, but the market isn't getting the message. Referee Howard Webb has slightly above-average card counts in recent Champions League and Premier League seasons, and [3.3] is an excellent price to bet on someone seeing red in 90 minutes.

Brazil Win to Nil

The Samba Kings! A team from Chile more exciting than the one with Salas and Zamorano! What will it be? 3-2? No, 4-3!

Are we too quick to imagine that both teams will score in this match? Chile have scored only three times in three matches so far and now come up against a defence marshalled by Lucio, who will play alongside two other members of the Internazionale team that locked down Barcelona, who were, like Chile, one of the most exciting teams in the world.

Late consolations given to North Korea and Ivory Coast have put the price on a Brazil clean sheet out to evens. Chile have pace in attack, which is a concern, but, if you like the Brazil win, the Brazil Win to Nil can add value at [2.4], so long as they don't get too far ahead early on and ease down.

Over/Under 2.5 goals (by Matthew Walton)

Chile registered 54 goals in 18 qualifying matches. Brazil generated a similarly impressive 44.

Also, as South American neighbours they have played each other frequently over the years - 17 times since 1990 to be exact, with a 11:6 bias in favour of over 2.5 goals. What's more, their last six meetings (since 2005) have all made up at the higher mark (4-2, 3-0, 6-1, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0). This would clearly suggest goals in Johannesburg.

Furthermore two of Brazil's three group matches were over 2.5 goals - the only let down their 'dead rubber' against Portugal - and Chile, although only recording one effort themselves over three goals, have looked a potent force in the initial group stage.

Therefore, in a knock-out fixture which would usually lean towards a lower make-up the pattern of form displayed by both sides, against all sides and not just each other, points quite markedly towards over 2.5 goals [2.28].

Best Bet: Say 'Yes' to Sending Off? at [3.3] in Brazil v Chile
Recommended Bet: Back Michel Bastos To Score at [13.0] v Chile

Tags: Alexis Sanchez, Brazil, Chile, Dunga, Humberto Suazo, Luis Fabiano, Marcelo Bielsa, Michel Bastos, Tobias Gourlay, World Cup Tips