Spain / James Eastham / 15 June 2010 / 1 Comments Free £25 Bet

The market makes Spain strong favourites to win comfortably, and there's every reason to believe they will when they meet Switzerland on Wednesday afternoon, writes James Eastham.

"David Villa scored seven times for Spain in the World Cup qualifiers. The price of 1.73 on him finding the net against Switzerland is worth considering given that he has averaged a goal every 1.53 games for his country."

Venue: Durban
UK Kick-Off Time: 15:00

World Cup favourites Spain go into the game on a run of 12 straight victories, the latest being a 6-0 thrashing of Poland on June 8. Coach Vincente del Bosque says midfielder Andres Iniesta will start after recovering from a thigh injury.

Switzerland's form is poor: they suffered a 1-0 defeat against Costa Rica on June 1 before restoring some pride by drawing 1-1 against Italy four days later. Their team news is another reason for gloom: all-time leading goalscorer Alexander Frei (ankle) is out and attacking midfielder Valon Behrami is a major doubt.

Match Odds

Spain are understandably short at [1.29] to win the match, with the draw [6.0] and Switzerland a massive [16.5] to cause an upset. Spain's price will be too skinny for all but accumulator punters, so if you want to side with Vincente del Bosque's team consider backing them on the Asian handicap instead. Spain are [2.04] with a -1.5-goal start, which is a decent price considering the gulf in class between the two sides and the fact that Switzerland are likely to struggle to score (more below).

Switzerland's form is as poor as Spain's is imperious: Ottmar Hitzfeld's side have failed to win five matches, a run that includes disappointing performances against Israel (0-0) and Norway (0-1) as well as that unexpected Costa Rica setback.

First Goalscorer / To Score

David Villa netted seven times in the qualifiers and will be confident he can pick up where he left off against the sort of side he normally punishes. [1.73] is worth considering on a player who has averaged a goal every 1.53 games for his country.

Statistically, Fernando Torres is a less appealing proposition. He's scored only once every 3.09 games for Spain and has just recovered from a knee injury, so I'm swerving the [1.97]. Xabi Alonso is [6.6] to score from midfield, although defenders Gerard Pique and Sergio Ramos are arguably better options. The pair are dangerous at set-pieces, which should prove useful in a game where Spain are likely to win plenty of corners. They're available at [9] and [10] respectively.

With Frei missing, Blaise Nkufo ([6.6]) is Switzerland's most likely goalscorer. He and Frei netted five times each during the qualifiers.

Spain Win to Nil

Spain's attacking strength is obvious but their defence is equally important. At Euro 2008, they kept clean sheets in all three of their games during the three knock-out phase, and leaked just five goals in 10 World Cup qualifiers.

Switzerland have chronic goalscoring problems. They've netted just twice in their last five fixtures and the loss of veteran Frei leaves the short of quality in attack.

Spain are [1.29] to win the game but a massive [1.92] to win to nil. Is that discrepancy really justified, given that so many possible winning scorelines (1-0, 2-0, 3-0) involve Spain keeping a clean sheet? I think not, so snap up the [1.92].

Spain To Score in Both Halves

Most punters will look to Spain-Spain on the Half-time/Full-time market ([1.89]) as the best alternative to backing Spain to win the match, but if you think Spain will be leading at half-time and full-time, then why not take the bigger price of [2.16] on Spain scoring in both halves?

The only way this wager will fail to pay out while the Spain-Spain HT/FT bet wins is if Spain lead 1-0 at the interval and then cling onto a 1-0 lead until the final whistle. That looks unlikely, so I'd rather take the bigger price on Spain netting either side of the break.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market (By Matthew Walton)

Spain's 10 qualifiers produced 33 goals and were 8:2 in favour of over 2.5 goals. Their six recent friendlies have generated 23 goals and were 4:2 in the 'overs' department. And for good measure over 2.5 goals were scored in three of their four matches in Germany 2006. In other words, with Spain you come to expect goals.

However, in those 20 matches the stats are F46 A13. Spain don't concede many goals and for one of their matches to make up at over 2.5 goals, their opponents need to bring something offensively to the party.

The question, therefore, is whether Switzerland will (a) concede 3 goals or (b) score at least one goal themselves - and the market is split at [1.99] under, [1.99] over.

Arguments can justifiably be forwarded for either case but the clincher, at this stage of the tournament, has to be the dominant trend thus far ... under 2.5 goals.

Best Bet: James Eastham says: Back Spain -1.5 Asian handicap v Switzerland @ [2.04].
Other Recommended Bet: Back Spain to Score in Both Halves @ [1.92].

Tags: Aleander Frei, Andre Iniesta, David Villa, Fernando Torres, Ottmar Hitzfeld, South Africa 2010, Spain, Switzerland, Vincente del Bosque, World Cup betting, World Cup previews, Xabi Alonso