Portugal / James Eastham / 29 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

A clash of styles is on the cards when Portugal take on Iberian neighbours Spain in Cape Town on Tuesday night. James Eastham picks out the best bets for you.

"Given David Villa's record in this tournament (two goals in three games) and in international football overall (41 goals in 61 appearances), the odds of [2.34] on him finding the net are actually good value. The Barcelona striker is worth backing."

Venue: Cape Town
UK Kick-Off Time: 19:30

Introduction

Having drawn 0-0 against Brazil last Friday, Portugal have walked straight into another bitter clash as they seek a place in the quarter-finals. There's no love lost between these Iberian rivals; nothing would please the Portuguese more than knocking out their bigger brothers next door.

Xabi Alonso is likely to miss the game with an ankle sprain, robbing Spain of some quality in midfield. For Portugal, Paulo Ferreira is tipped to replace Miguel at right-back. All other key players for both sides are likely to be available.

Match Odds

Are Spain better than Portugal - and, if so, by how much? The answers are yes, and not as much as you think. Spain play far more progressive football and have more talented attacking players but Portugal have the best defence in the tournament and will adopt a similar approach to Switzerland, who beat Spain 1-0 in their opening game, which will be a worry for Vincente del Bosque.

An early Spain goal would open up the game - but if del Bosque's side fail to make the breakthrough before half-time, they will be susceptible to Portugal's impressive counter-attacks. Spain are [2.1] to win in 90 minutes, with Portugal [4.5] and the draw [3.25]. I would lay Spain if they were odds-on, but as things stand I'd avoid this market.

First Goalscorer / To Score

David Villa heads the 'To Score' market at [2.34] and he's in such imperious form that you should consider backing him to score again. Given his record at this tournament (two goals in three games) and in international football overall (41 in 61 appearances) the odds on him finding the net are actually good value, so this is a good betting opportunity.

Portugal may have scored seven times against North Korea but they failed to find the net against either Ivory Coast or Brazil, underlining their lack of an outstanding striker. Cristiano Ronaldo heads their 'to score' list at [3.6] but he has performed only fitfully so far, and Liedson [4.3] and Hugo Almeida [4.6] are unproven at this level.

Portugal's midfielders break into the box really well so Tiago [11.5] and Pedro Mendes [15.0] should offer you an excellent run for your money.

Corners Match Bet

In games where Spain have dominated possession, they've also dominated the corners count. Against Switzerland, Spain had 67% of the possession and won 12 corners (to Switzerland's three). Against Honduras, Spain had 66% of the possession and won 12 corners (to Honduras' two).

I expect Spain to dominate possession against a Portugal side that will get many players behind the ball and look to hit on the break, so Spain are a great bet in the Corners Match Bet market. And Portugal's corners count has been low, anyway: they have averaged just 4.67 a game, compared to Spain's 9.33.

Bookings Match Bet

A feature of Spain's play is just how clean their players are. Even in times of trouble - such as their must-win match v Honduras - their players keep their heads, avoid diving into challenges and limit back-chat to the referee to a minimum. As a result, Spain have yet to pick up a booking, which is a remarkable feat after 270 minutes of football.

Portugal will be on the back foot for most of the game so are more likely to pick up bookings for mistimed tackles. Carlos Queiroz's side have earned seven bookings so far, and have several players (Ricardo Carvalho, Bruno Alves) who are not averse to collecting a yellow card for the good of the team.

Portugal look a solid bet in the Bookings Match Bet market.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market (By Matthew Walton)

Despite being neighbours, these two countries haven't played each other too often in recent years. Just six times, as it happens, since 1990 with a 4:2 bias towards a low make-up.

That contrasts with the generally free-scoring Spaniards who are 16:9 in favour of over 2.5 goals in their last 25 international games and the more conservative Portuguese - who have still managed the higher figure on 12 occasions.

But the crucial point to note is that both teams generally manage a high make-up on account of the goals they score, not the ones they concede. Both teams are very solid defensively. This makes your choice of trade dependent not so much upon the quality of attacking play we'll see in Cape Town but the respective defensive displays.

And this makes it a tight call but the prices on offer probably just swing the balance in favour of the higher return at [2.74].

Best Bet: James Eastham says: Back Portugal Bookings Match Bet @ [1.75].
Other Recommended Bet: Back David Villa to score anytime @ [2.34].

James Eastham has made 13.06pts profit (after 5% commission) from 36pts staked on World Cup 2010 games. That's 36.3% ROI. This total includes 9.26pts profit from 18pts staked on Best Bets (51.5% ROI)

Tags: Carlos Queiroz, Cristiano Ronaldo, David Villa, Portugal, South Africa 2010, Spain, Tiago, Vincente del Bosque, World Cup betting preview