Portugal / James Eastham / 20 June 2010 / 1 Comments Free £25 Bet

Portugal laboured against Ivory Coast while North Korea played better than expected against Brazil, so the smart way to make money on this game is to oppose the favourites, writes James Eastham.

"Favourites have won only 10 of 26 games so far, so you'd have made good money if you'd layed every jolly. And if you'd back all the underdogs with a +1.25 Asian handicap start, you'd have won on 22 out of 26 games."

Venue: Cape Town
UK Kick-Off Time: 12:30

Introduction

North Korea produced a thrilling defensive display (no, that's not an oxymoron) against Brazil last Monday - and Portugal's Raul Meireles is expecting more of the same at Cape Town Stadium on Monday afternoon.

"We watched a bit of their game against Brazil. We know that they're very strong defensively, with 10 players behind the ball. We are prepared for that," said the FC Porto midfielder.

Unsurprisingly, there has been little news coming out of the North Korea camp, but anybody who expected Kim Jong Hun's side to be pushovers in South Africa knows differently following their excellent performance last week.

Match Odds

I'm surprised Portugal are as short as [1.41] to beat North Korea. To put that price in context, it's skinner than France were to beat Uruguay (0-0), England to defeat USA (1-1) and Italy to see off Paraguay (1-1).

I saw nothing in Portugal's unimaginative performance against Ivory Coast (0-0) to suggest they've got a 70% chance of winning this match. And anybody who watched Portugal in the qualifiers knows this side usually struggles to break down the sort of well-drilled defensive system that North Korea will employ.

The draw is [4.9], with North Korea [11.0] to cause an upset that would rank alongside their 1-0 victory over Italy in 1966. The best way to play the match market is to either lay Portugal at [1.42] or back North Korea with an Asian handicap start (more on that below).

First Goalscorer / To Score

Where will Portugal's goals come from? That questioned troubled Portugal manager Carlos Queiroz long before this tournament began, and his side's 0-0 draw against Ivory Coast did little to dispel his concerns. Through lack of service, Liedson - who's [2.38] to score anytime - had few opportunities to prove he's the right man to lead their attack, so it was left to Cristiano Ronaldo to try to open up the Ivory Coast defence with shots from long range. His thunderous strike against the post early in the game suggests he's close to ending his long barren spell for his international side, so I'd consider backing him at [2.06] to score anytime.

At [8.2], Pedro Mendes will be dangerous from long range, while Bruno Alves [9.2] and Ricardo Carvalho [12.5] may threaten at set-pieces. For North Korea, Ji Yun Nam is [10.5] to repeat his feat of scoring against Brazil.

Asian Handicap

I'm torn at this tournament between expecting the better teams to come to the fore and continuing to back the underdogs to overachieve. Statistically, however, it's obvious that few favourites have offered value.

Favourites have won only 10 of 26 games so far, so it goes without saying you'd have made good money if you'd layed every jolly. And the Asian handicap market broadens your opportunity to make money, because you can back North Korea and make a profit even if they lose by a single goal.

There's little doubt in my mind that North Korea are too big at [1.92] with a +1&+1.5 (or +1.25) start. You'll lose only if Portugal win by two goals or more, which is a tall order for Queiroz's side against North Korea's excellent defence. Again, the figures are in your favour: if you'd backed the underdog in every match with a +1.25-goal start, you'd have made money on 22 of 26 games.

Bookings Match Bet

The most delightful aspect of North Korea's game against Brazil was how little time their players spent rolling around on the floor after even the meatiest challenges, showing just how much gamesmanship the other sides indulge in. North Korea emerged with no bookings, which is a remarkable achievement considering how tough it is to avoid mistiming tackles against tricky Brazilian players.

The cleanness of North Korea's play creates an excellent betting option on the bookings markets: I'd recommend laying North Korea to have most bookings in the Bookings Match Bet market at [1.5] or better, because there's no justification for odds suggesting North Korea have a 66% chance of picking up more yellows than Portugal. They'll be on the back foot for most of the game - but they were against Brazil, too.

An alternative is to lay 9pts and above on the Bookings Odds market. Every yellow card is worth 2pts and every red card 5pts - so as long as the game has four bookings or fewer, or a red card and two bookings or fewer, you'll make a profit.

Over/Under 2.5 goals (by Matthew Walton)

Unless the Portuguese are banking on defeating Brazil in their final group match, this has the look of a must-win game for Carlos Quieroz's side. That first match 0-0 draw with Ivory Coast effectively making their qualification a two match sprint (against Korea today and Brazil on Friday) where they simply must outperform the Africans.

However, the problem is Portugal's footballing DNA. Despite an abundance of flair players they're not prolific scorers with a 13:12 ratio in their last 25 internationals under 2.5 goals - and this figure is boosted by easy wins against Mozambique, Malta (twice), the Faroe Islands.

North Korea did more than enough in their opener against Brazil to suggest they could frustrate Ronaldo and co. - which is very much their game as shown by a 12:4 qualifying bias to under 2.5 goals - and this may be no easy assignment for the favourites. Under 2.5 goals [1.83] makes most appeal.

Best Bet: James Eastham says: Back North Korea +1&+1.5 Asian Handicap @ [1.92].
Other Recommended Bet: Lay North Korea Bookings Match Bet @ [1.5].

Tags: Cristiano Ronaldo, football betting, James Eastham, Matthew Walton, Portugal v North Korea, World Cup betting