Ivory Coast / Dave Farrar / 18 May 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Over the past few weeks there has been something of a gamble on the Ivory Coast to win the World Cup but the reasoning behind that is hard to understand. Didier Drogba is of course a world class player but that's unlikely to be enough for them to even reach the last 16.

"And so there was a hiatus, and then they ended up with Sven. Good old Sven, who did such a good job with England’s golden generation. A team that is fancied for the World Cup should either be a fantastic unit, which the Ivory Coast aren’t, or have at least five players in their starting eleven who would get into most of the other teams at the tournament."

If I had millions in my Betfair account, and could get them matched, then I think I'd have only one bet on this World Cup. The idea that an African team could win in South Africa and that Didier Drogba can carry a side on his own, has somehow led to a prevailing opinion that the Ivory Coast are value at around [38.0] to win the World Cup.

At that price you should take a look at the market and lay them, take another look and lay them again and then, oh I don't know, have a third look and lay them some more. This is a team which has proved time and again that they are fragile, crashing out of three Cups of Nations that they were favourites to win, and I just don't get this idea of the Ivory Coast's golden generation.

This isn't the group of death, but they still may struggle to get out of it, and there are weaknesses all over the pitch. They seemed to have done the right thing in appointing a really good and more importantly, a disciplinarian coach in the shape of Vahid Halihodzic, but after the setback in January they decided to ditch him without having considered a replacement.

And so there was a hiatus, and then they ended up with Sven. Good old Sven, who did such a good job with England's golden generation. A team that is fancied for the World Cup should either be a fantastic unit, which the Ivory Coast aren't, or have at least five players in their starting eleven who would get into most of the other teams at the tournament.

I'll give you Drogba, and then I'll be really kind and give you Yaya Toure. After that, there are questions: Kalou? Eboue? Kolo Toure? Boubacar Barry? Sol Bamba? Thought not. This is a classic example of a team which has been bigged up because it contains some Premier League players, has a famous coach, and is "at home" in the World Cup. They can't defend, have proved they are flaky and are prime candidates to crash out in the first round.

Sven Goran Eriksson

Eriksson's reputation and international standing, which I've always felt to be overblown, is in an interesting place ahead of the World Cup. He failed miserably as manager of Mexico, and then his curious involvement with Notts County ended in suitably surreal fashion.

Before that he did a reasonable job with England, and was a qualified success at Manchester City, but there's always that lingering suspicion that he is a master at exceeding expectations at smaller teams, rather than delivering at bigger names. Yes, I know he won Serie A with Lazio, but that was after a 270 million pound investment and a slice of luck on the final day.

Gordon Brown could have won the title with Lazio that year. His tactical astuteness will have a positive impact on the Ivory Coast, but will he be able to cope with the characters, deal with Drogba? I doubt it, and I don't think that he'll be spending much time in Abidjan once this tournament is over.

Key Players

Didier Drogba

He's the one genuinely top class player that his country has and must be at his striking best throughout the tournament. But more than that he has to lead. The rest of his teammates won't be able to cope if Drogba starts complaining, or his head goes down. Even if he's at his best, I don't fancy Ivory Coast to qualify, but if he's not, then they could finish bottom of the group.

Gervinho

Gervinho has been in decent form at Lille for most of the season, and is a likely starter for his country in South Africa, but I think that the importance of a player like him to the side sums up the problem that Sven Goran Ericsson has with regard to managing expectation. Because Gervinho is a long way from top class, scored the odd goal but looked average in the Europa League, and he's included as a key player to ram home the point about the Ivory Coast. Below Drogba, there's a huge drop off in quality, and they simply don't have the players to justify their price.

Boubacar Barry

The back line is shaky, and that means that they need a goalkeeper of quality to protect them, but I don't believe that they have one. The likes of Cameroon's Kameni prove that a lot of the clichés about African goalkeepers are misguided, but Barry, he of the baggy tracksuit bottoms, is shaky at best. He looks awkward under the high ball, and given the quality of finishers that he's likely to be up against here, I can't see him being good enough to save his country.

Recommended Bet:

Lay Ivory Coast to Qualify @ [1.9]

Tags: Didier Drogba, Goran Eriksson, I, Ivory Coast players, Ivory Coast team, Sven Goran Eriksson, vory Coast managers, World Cup odds