Diego or Dunga: Who will be the best of South America?

Brazil / Matthew Walton / 28 May 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Maradona's leadership has not been smooth sailing

Two highly successful former players lead their national countries at the World Cup but which one will go furthest in the competition? Matthew Walton looks at the likely scenarios

" If Brazil were to come second in Group G they will more than likely face Spain in the R16… a very good incentive, therefore, to win the section. However, winning the group would put them on course for a potential quarter-final with Holland and a possible semi with France, Germany or maybe England."

Brazil. Forget about them being second favourites and many people's tips to win this year's World Cup. With a lot of shrewd punters and clued-up observers, the 'Dunga Boys' aren't even guaranteed to be the best side from South America this summer... let alone the world.

Sending its customary five nations to the finals, the battle for bragging rights in 2010 concerns Brazil [2.2], Argentina [2.8], Chile [13.0], Paraguay [15.0] and Uruguay [20.0]. A quintet of mixed ability and varying pedigree but a group which is hoping to produce the 10th world champion for the continent out of a total of 19 renewals dating back to 1934.

Uruguay, the outsider of the field, have the most to prove. Their two previous World Cup triumphs came way back in 1934 and 1950 with their most recent foray into the latter stages was a fourth place in 1970. It's worth noting that each of those finals was held in South America. Footballing mobility within the modern game makes the term 'bad travellers' a poor reason for opposing the men from Montevideo ... more their fifth place finish in qualifying and their subsequently unimpressive 2-1 aggregate win over Costa Rica in the play-offs.

Paraguay, like Uruguay, have a group that they are perfectly capable of getting through but thereafter it gets very tricky, very quickly. Uruguay could easily play Argentina in the R16 and Paraguay (unlikely to topple Italy in Group F) could very well face the Dutch. The landlocked nation has never won two matches at the same finals, never gone beyond the last 16 and relying on a star player like Roque Santa Cruz - who didn't get a kick last season - makes them an easy swerve.

Chile look to be in a straight fight with Switzerland to emerge from Group H as surely neither will get close to Spain. Sadly, second in this section means facing the winner of Group G with Brazil, Portugal and the Ivory Coast! Chile qualified second in the CONMEBOL confederation, just a point behind Brazil, but even that noteworthy effort is offset by a brutal draw in South Africa and an unconvincing profile at the highest level.

So, then there were two... Argentina and Brazil.

How can a country like Argentina, which can call upon talent like Messi, Higuain, Aguero, Di Maria and Tevez not be favourites? Well, the simple answer is that some bright spark at the Argentine FA decided to put Diego Maradona in charge.

A shambolic qualifying campaign (including a 6-1 hammering in Bolivia) saw Argentina scrape home in the fourth automatic place, add that to a questionable selection policy (for example picking Martin Palermo over Gabriel Milito) and it goes a long way to explain why the twice World Champions are viewed as inferior to Brazil.

As for the defending champions themselves, Brazil seek a sixth trophy in these finals after topping the charts in South America en route to making it here. It would be a brave punter, one could argue, who opposes them. Kaka, Fabiano, Robinho, Maicon and Ronaldinho are names to match (if not better) anything which could be suggested by backers of Argentina.

What we must do is look at the draw. If Brazil were to come second in Group G they will more than likely face Spain in the R16 ... a very good incentive, therefore, to win the section. However, winning the group would put them on course for a potential quarter-final with Holland and a possible semi with France, Germany or maybe England. Two very tough matches against proven opposition.

As for Argentina, win Group B and the most likely scenario looks to be Germany in the quarters and Spain in the semis. Taken as an 'average' over the two games probably slightly easier matches than Brazil - but only very slightly!

Throw in the distinct possibility of a dead-heat, with either side going out in the same round, and there's a view that Argentina [2.8] might just offer a scrap of value in what is a fascinating market.

Tags: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Diego Maradona, Paraguay, Roque Santa Cruz, Uruguay