Group G / Tobias Gourlay / 13 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Tobias Gourlay puts his neck on the line and tips Brazil to beat North Korea. But how will they do it?

"Kaka had a modest first season for Real, but that shouldn’t stop him starring for this team, where everyone is much keener to pass to him and work for him than Cristiano Ronaldo and Gonzalo Higuain."

Venue: Ellis Park, Johannesburg
UK Kick-Off Time: 19:30

In a sense, North Korea are the darkest of dark horses, but a quick glance at their qualifying record will rid you of thoughts that there might be some value in their [1000.00] price to lift the World Cup. In Johannesburg on Tuesday evening they will try not to embarrass President Kim Jong-il by losing too heavily to Brazil.

Match Odds

North Korea won only six of their last 14 qualifiers, getting to South Africa well behind South Korea, Australia and Japan. Their record of 11 goals in those 14 games suggests they will not cause much trouble for a Brazilian defence that contains three of the most impressive members of Internazionale's Champions League-winning team. Last year's 1-0 derby defeat to South Korea failed to enliven the low-octane afternoons of Eurosport's daytime viewers and also suggests nothing other than a win for Brazil [1.11].

As a player, Dunga was a water-carrier and his appointment as coach of the Selecao in the aftermath of the last World Cup was surprising and unpopular, even if he will never repeat his predecessor's mistake of cramming Kaka, Ronaldinho, Adriano and Ronaldo into the same team. His tactics are now settled and there's no reason to suppose he won't continue to improve Brazil's remarkable record of having won 19/21 group-stage matches going back to Spain '82. (The two they didn't win didn't really matter anyway.)

First Goalscorer/To Score

Brazil's formation is roughly characterised as a 4-2-3-1, but it's a lopsided one. On the left of the three, Robinho - [2.14] to score - starts close to the touchline, creating space for Kaka [2.4] and Luis Fabiano [1.81] inside him and performing the role with a discipline that Manchester City and Real Madrid fans will not recognise. Kaka has just finished a modest first season for Real, but that shouldn't stop him starring for this team, where everyone is much keener to pass to him and work for him than Cristiano Ronaldo and Gonzalo Higuain.

On the right, Elano [3.85], who Dunga might now prefer to Benfica's Ramires [5.5], takes up a narrower, deeper position and uses more energy meeting defensive responsibilities. If Elano plays, he will force Kaka to share free-kick duties, in which case the latter's price won't be quite so tempting and perhaps you'll prefer Maicon [6.8], the marauding right-back with a goal every 10 or so games for his country and one every five in Serie A this season. Under Dunga's system, he is free to get into opposition penalty areas.

North Korea's star striker, Tae Se Jong [8.2], who plays club football in Japan and scored a rather good goal in a recent friendly with Greece, found the back of the net once in 12 qualifiers. Another of the three foreign-based players in Kim Jong-Hun's finals squad, captain Hong Yong-Jo [12.0] of FC Rostov in Russia, led the way with four in 14.

Asian Handicap

At the beginning of the year North Korea embarked on a series of friendlies to prepare the home-based players for the exotic delights of the World Cup. They drew three and lost five of the matches, but only one of the defeats came by a margin of more than one goal. Kim Jong-Hun knows where to park his five-man defence and recent draws with South Africa and Greece, as well as a very narrow loss to Paraguay, suggest North Korea +2.0 on the Asian Handicap might - might - be worth a punt at [2.38].

Half Time/Full Time

And that five-man defence has helped keep North Korea level with their opponents through to half-time in each of their last five friendlies. If you believe they are tenacious enough to stick with Brazil for 45 minutes, there are a number options available to you. The half-time draw is on offer at [3.8], but there's only one plausible way in which the Koreans will be all-square at that stage, so the [4.8] about the 0-0 half-time score looks a better bet. And, remembering Brazil's awesome record of winning group-stage games at 90 minutes, the Draw/Brazil half-time/full-time double result might be best of all at [5.5].

Over/Under 2.5 goals (by Matthew Walton)

You expect goals with Brazil ... and you tend to get them. Their 18 qualifying games saw 44 goals and were 10:8 in favour of over 2.5 goals. In the last three World Cups their record from 19 matches is 12:7 in favour of the higher figure. And here they face the whipping boys of the tournament (let alone the group), North Korea. No small wonder over 2.5 goals is only [1.61].

A word of caution is the Koreans only saw 4 of 16 qualifiers make-up at over 2.5 goals - but what threat the likes of Mongolia and Jordan posed is open to debate.

Brazil should cover the line against the No.105 nation in the world ... However, the price is no give-away. It may be best to hope for a slow start by the South Americans so that a better in-running price is available (as some traders clearly get twitchy after barely five or 10 minutes).

Best Bet: Back Kaka at [2.24] To Score v North Korea
Recommended Bet: Back Maicon at [6.8] To Score v North Korea

Tags: Brazil, Dunga, Hong Yong-Jo, Kaka, Kim Jong-Hun, Maicon, North Korea, Robinho, Tae Se Jong, Tobias Gourlay, World Cup Betting, World Cup Tips