Slovakia / James Eastham / 14 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

The Kiwis are an unknown quantity as they return to World Cup tournament football for the first time since 1982, but their greenness doesn't mean you should back Slovakia, writes James Eastham.

"If you'd backed 'No' in the Both teams to Score? market in all eight games so far, you'd be sitting on a small fortune so far. You'd have won seven out of eight times, with only Robert Green's freakishly poor handling preventing a clean sweep."

Venue: Rustenberg
UK Kick-Off Time: 12:30

New Zealand's preparations for their first World Cup finals game in 28 years have been mixed: they beat Serbia 1-0 to end a run of three straight defeats but lost 3-1 to Slovenia in their final warm-up friendly. Central midfielder Tim Brown is likely to be missing through a shoulder injury, making the Kiwis weaker in the centre of the park.

Slovakia's results have been better than their opponents', and they have no major injury concerns at the time of writing before their must-win match.

Match Odds

You won't be surprised to learn that Slovakia are odds-on favourites - they're [1.5] to win, with New Zealand [9.2] and the draw [4.3]. Slovakia are one of the lowest-ranking European sides at the finals, but momentum has built ibehind their chances in recent weeks.

Slovakia are expected to be involved in a straight fight with Paraguay for second place in the group, although Italy's problems going into the finals suggest it might be a three-way battle.

Only hosts South Africa and North Korea are lower than New Zealand in the Fifa rankings, although the Kiwis' 1-0 friendly win over Serbia on will have given them some confidence. After defeats to Mexico and Australia, it was their first victory over higher-ranking opponents that will be at the finals since they qualified.

I expect Slovakia to win but the price is too short.

First Goalscorer / To Score

Stanislav Sestak was Slovakia's top scorer with six goals in the qualifiers and netted twice in their 3-0 friendly win over Costa Rica on June 12. If you expect Slovakia to win, as I do, Bochum striker Sestak (who has averaged a goal every three international appearances) is worth considering to score anytime at [2.6].

Shane Smeltz ([5.0]), who feeds off former Celtic striker Chris Killen's ([5.0]) power in the air, is New Zealand's best goalscorer, as he showed with eight strikes in the qualifiers.

Two Premier League defenders are likely to attract the attention of bettors seeking bigger prices: in 2009-10, Ryan Nelsen ([21]) scored four times in 28 league games for Blackburn, whose fans know all about his aerial threat, while Liverpool's Martin Skrtel ([11.0]) has averaged a goal every eight games for Slovakia.

Half-Time Draw

One of the most obvious trends on the first eight games of the finals has been a tremendously cautious approach from many teams in the first-half. At the time of writing only six goals have been scored before HT, with five out of eight games all-square (four 0-0s) at the interval. Slovakia are likely to be more attack-minded early in this game than other sides have been because this is their must-win match, but the trend on HT draws is still strong enough for me to back that outcome at [2.52]. The 0-0 HT scoreline is an alternative at [3.1].

Both teams to Score?

It's been a low-scoring World Cup so far. Germany's 4-0 thrashing of Australia pushed up the averages up a little but there have still been only 1.63 goals a game, with seven out of eight games having two goals or fewer.

If you'd backed 'No' in the Both teams to Score? market in every single match, you'd be sitting on a small fortune right now. You'd have made a profit in six out of the first eight games.

Given the early tournament trend, and New Zealand's lack of pedigree at this level, 'No' in the Both teams to Score? market is a decent wager at [1.78].

Over/Under 2.5 goals (by Matthew Walton)

Prices of [1.86] for under 2.5 goals and [2.12] for over say it all about this match ... nobody is quite sure what to expect.

New Zealand bring no international pedigree, Slovakia little more. Both qualified from poor sections, the Kiwis in with the likes of Vanuatu and the Europeans headed a group including Slovenia (whose modest form has already been shown against Algeria). And in a group which also includes Paraguay and Italy neither, probably, has a chance of qualifying - certainly none should they lose here.

Considerations which might lead to carefree attacking play but with a tournament so far short of such a commodity and this stage of the competition historically producing few goals (round one matches at the last six World Cups have been 59% in favour of the lower figure) a choice of under 2.5 goals [1.85] seems the more sensible course of action.

Best bet: James Eastham says: Back 'No' in Both Teams to Score? market @ [1.78].
Other recommended bet: HT draw @ [2.52].

Tags: Martin Skrtel, New Zealand, Ryan Nelsen, Slovakia, South Africa 2010, Stanislav Sestak, World Cup betting, World Cup previews