Paraguay / James Eastham / 19 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

James Eastham expects a clean, attacking fight between two sides that have got nothing to lose in Group F on Sunday afternoon.

"Paraguay and Slovakia are two of the cleanest teams I've seen in the tournament so far. Referee Eddy Maillet booked just three players in his first World Cup appearance. This is a rare opportunity to lay Bookings Odds at 9pts and above."

Venue: Bloemfontain
UK Kick-Off Time: 12:30

Team news

Quotes coming out of the camps suggest both sides will play open, attacking football. They got a point each in their first games so this match is a chance to take a giant leap towards qualification.

"There is no time to speculate on games. We have to try to go out and win it, as a victory for us would almost see us through," said Paraguay midfielder Cristian Riveros. "That's our mentality. Let's hope things will happen for us so we can pick up the three points."

Slovakia's final game is against Italy so this is their best chance to stake a claim for a last-16 place after they dropped two points against New Zealand in injury-time.

Match Odds

I make Paraguay clear favourites. They played technically good, efficient and defensively sound football against Italy, fully deserving the point they earned (1-1). Slovakia were less impressive against New Zealand. The Kiwis were dominant for long spells, and it was no surprise when they eventually found a way through Slovakia's defence.

Paraguay are [2.12] to win, which looks about fair, with the draw [3.35] and Slovakia [4.2]. I've seen little value in the Match Odds at most of the games at the tournament so far, and this game is no different.

First Goalscorer / To Score

Defender Antolin Alcaraz scored Paraguay's goal in their 1-1 draw against Italy, but the mobility of their attacking play suggests they're a side that will share around the goals if they progress to the latter stages of the tournament. None of their players is particularly appealing in the First Goalscorer / To Score markets, although Roque Santa Cruz and Benfica's Oscar Cardozo (who came on as a substitute against the Azzurri) will attract attention at [3.2].

All eyes were on Slovakia's Stanislav Sestak, their leading scorer from the qualifiers, before their game against New Zealand, but it was veteran captain Robert Vittek who came up with the vital goal. The pair are both [4.1] to score anytime, although I'd rather back Martin Skrtel. On one or two occasions against New Zealand he looked dangerous in the penalty area and would have come closer to scoring had Slovakia's disappointingly inaccurate set-piece takers been on song. The Liverpool centre-half is [17.0] to score anytime.

Both Teams to Score

The Greece v Nigeria (2-1) and Slovenia v USA (2-2) games showed that attacking football ensues when teams need points. The cautious approach of the opening round of games has been forgotten as sides with their backs pressed against the wall know they have to score to stand any chance of progressing to the knock-out phase.

I expect attacking football from both sides, and neither defended well enough in their opening games to suggest they will keep clean sheets. Both teams have scored in three of the six "second" games played so far, a figure I think will rise in the next couple of days (and it would have been higher already if Lukas Podolski had shown the same confidence from the penalty spot he does in open play).

Both teams to score is [2.18]., a price definitely worth taking.

Bookings Odds

Paraguay and Slovakia are two of the cleanest teams I've seen in the tournament so far. There were few rough challenges, niggly fouls or moments of cynicism from either side in their opening matches, which means they've got just two yellow cards between them. Slovakia's Zdeno Strba was booked for a foul on Simon Elliott, and Paraguay's Victor Caceres received a caution for a late tackle.

Referee Eddy Maillet of the Seychelles was card-shy in his first World Cup appearance: he booked just three players in Chile's 1-0 win over Spain last Wednesday. As a result, this game is a rare opportunity to lay Bookings Odds at 9pts and above. A red card is worth 5pts and a booking 2pts, so as long as there are four bookings or fewer (or a red card and two bookings or fewer), you'll make money.

Over/Under 2.5 goals (by Matthew Walton)

Paraguay's matches don't tend to produce many goals. In their last 25 matches, only five times has the make-up been higher than 2.5 goals. Make that five from 26 after an opening 1-1 draw with Italy.

Slovakia, by contrast, score/concede more goals - over 2.5 goals shows a 14:11 bias over the same period - but seven of their last 10 have seen a low make-up and this is a side, let's remind ourselves, who could only score one against the group 'rags' New Zealand.

Each country still harbours a genuine hope of making the last 16 and given a draw apiece in their respective first matches, and the tight nature of this group, both would probably settle for a draw before kick-off (more so Paraguay as they, unlike Slovakia, have already played Italy).

It all suggests that goals could be hard to come by and so under 2.5 goals [1.54] looks best.

Best Bet: James Eastham says: Slovakia v Paraguay Both Teams to Score @ [2.18].
Other Recommended Bet: Lay Bookings Odds at 9pts and Above @ [1.8] or better.

Tags: Paraguay, Robert Vittek, Roque Santa Cruz, Slovakia, South Africa 2010, Stanislav Sestak, World Cup betting preview, World Cup odds