Netherlands / James Eastham / 28 June 2010 / 2 Comments Free £25 Bet

After increasing his tournament profit with two winners on Ghana v USA, James Eastham brings you the lowdown on the last-16 clash between Holland and Slovakia on Monday afternoon.

"Holland are a side that share the goals around. Five different players scored their five goals in the group stages, so it's difficult to single anybody out in the goalscorer markets."

Venue: Durban
UK Kick Off Time: 15:00

Introduction

Slovakia caused one of the shocks of the tournament by beating Italy 3-2 in their final group game - and, according to several players, the reason was they played with "heart" for the first time since arriving in South Africa. As a result I expect another feisty performance from a side that appears to be at their best when they're harrying, chasing and working hard.

Holland were one of only two teams (Argentina being the other) to pick up maximum points in the group stages but the suspicion remains that they've yet to be truly tested.

Match Odds

If winning World Cups is about momentum, then Holland are genuine contenders. Having watched all three of their group performances, it's obvious they have room from improvement, yet there was something ominously impressive about the way they won all three matches without being in trouble.

The price of [1.49] on the Dutch winning in 90 minutes is probably fair, although I expect Slovakia to cause them more problems than Denmark, Japan and Cameroon did.

Following their outstanding victory over Italy, Slovakia will play with the freedom and commitment of a side whose only expectations are to give everything they've got, and the way they played against Italy shows they're anything but intimidated by more illustrious opponents.

Slovakia are [9.2], with the draw [4.5]. I'd make Holland clear favourites, but there are no appealing wagers in this sector.

First Goalscorer / To Score

Holland are a side that share the goals around, which is why it's difficult to single out a name worth backing in the goalscorer markets. Five different players scored their five goals in the group stages, so the evidence is that Robin van Persie [2.12], Klaas-Jan Huntelaar [2.66], Arjen Robben [2.88] and Dirk Kuyt [3.15] are all as likely to score as each other. For that reason, I'd back Kuyt the outsider if I were going to back anybody.

Robert Vittek's form will delight anybody who has watched him play for Lille, a club he had to leave last January after losing his place. Vittek was never less than committed in the French League and was selfless even though he could score goals, so it's heartwarming to see him get on target three times in the tournament so far. He has overshadowed fellow striker Stanislav Sestak, although both men are available are [5.6] to find the net anytime. Vittek is a great bet to become the first player from the former Czechoslovakia since Tomas Skuhravy in 1990 to score four goals in the World Cup finals - but remember, only goals scored in 90 minutes count for the purpooses of this market.

Both Teams to Score

Holland have yet to concede a goal in open play but to me that's more down to the poor quality of the opposition they've faced than the strength of their back four. I've still reservations about the Holland defence and I feel Slovakia will test them more strongly than any team has so far.

Slovakia have nothing to lose: they have already gone further than most people expected and will have a real go at causing one of the competition's major upsets by knocking out Holland. At the time of writing both teams have scored in both last-16 matches played, and I feel the chances of both teams finding the net in this game (in 90 mins) have been underestimated. The price of [2.52] is well worth taking, as I think we're about to find out that Holland's back four is less secure than their 'goals against' record suggests.

Half Time Score

Holland have grown used to facing opponents with packed defences that invite the Dutch to attack, and it's obvious that Bert van Marwijk's side are happy to be patient for as long as possible until breaking down their opponents' well-planned strategies.

Holland's games against Denmark and Japan were both 0-0 at half-time because the Dutch were happy to probe and prod patiently until their opponents made a mistake.
Slovakia are more than happy to buy into that sort of approach: they were cautious and cagey for 45 minutes against New Zealand (0-0 at half-time) and tried to employ the same tactics against Paraguay only to get caught out when the South Americans took the lead.

I expect a chess game for 45 minutes, so my second bet on the match is the 0-0 half-time scoreline at [2.82].

Over/Under 2.5 goals (by Matthew Walton)

The trade for this match is to back under 2.5 goals [1.76].

From a Dutch perspective, their qualifying and tournament play here in South Africa bear a strong resemblance to each other - the ability to score goals at one end complemented by the habit of not conceding too many at the other. In qualifying their record was P8 F17 A2, here it's been P3 F5 A1. As such their record of over/under was a 4:4 split in the qualifiers and is currently 2:1 in these finals in favour of the lesser figure.

As for Slovakia, they were actually more productive than Holland in the qualification group (10 matches delivering 32 goals - however 10 were against San Marino) but have gone off the boil recently with seven of their last 10 games generating under 2.5 goals.

A match where the Dutch will be strong at the back (again) and can do just enough offensively to hold off their opponents - that makes a low make-up the bet.

Best Bet: James Eastham says: Back Both Teams to Score @ [2.52].
Other Recommended Bet: Back 0-0 Half Time Score @ [2.82].

James Eastham has made 12.57pts profit (after 5% commission) from 34pts staked (37.0% ROI) on World Cup games so far

Tags: Dirk Kuyt, Holland, Netherlands, Robert Vittek, Robin van Persie, Slovakia, South Africa 2010, Wesley Sneijder, World Cup betting, World Cup preview