Netherlands / James Eastham / 17 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

The big teams are coming to the fore, which is why Holland should have few problems against an ordinary Japan side, writes James Eastham

"Eleven of the 14 wins at the World Cup at the time of writing have been to nil, so if you expect Holland to win the game, the price on them doing so while keeping a clean sheet is worth taking."

Venue: Durban
UK Kick-Off Time: 12:30

Team news

Arjen Robben remains an injury doubt after sitting out Holland's first game with a hamstring injury. Latest reports suggest manager Bert van Marwijk will be unlikely to risk him.

Wesley Sneijder says: "The Japan game won't be easy as they play a good style of football, running a lot and combining well. In our last meeting they put us under pressure for an hour but eventually we won." Japan have a long-term habit of fading late in games.

Japan coach Takeshi Okada left out Shunsuke Nakamura for their opening 1-0 win over Cameroon. Some reports say the former Celtic midfielder may be restored to the starting line-up.

Match Odds

The theme of the second round has been the so-called better teams making their superiority count: Uruguay set the trend with their 3-0 win over South Africa and Argentina followed suit by thrashing South Korea 4-1.

That's why the odds of [1.47] on Holland appear fair. The Dutch were rarely in trouble against Denmark (2-0) in their opening game and will be confident they can produce a similarly obdurate defensive display against a Japan side that rarely threatened to score against Cameroon other than when they netted the winning goal. Even if Japan prove difficult to open up during the first hour, Holland possess the sort of patient, passing game that ought to eventually wear down their opponents.

Japan are [10], with the draw [4.5]. I can't make a case for either outcome.

First Goalscorer / To Score

Holland are the sort of side that will share the goals around: playing without a prolific centre-forward, they will continue to rely on the fluid front three of Robin van Persie ([2.04] to score anytime), Dirk Kuyt ([3]) and either Rafael van der Vaart [3.65] or Robben to create space for each other through their clever movement and interplay.

Wesley Sneijder will attract punters at [3.65], although his habit of attempting to score directly from free-kicks 40 yards from goal is doing little to enhance his chances. Nakamura [8.2] will be a threat from set-pieces if he starts, but Keisuke Honda [7] looks their most likely scorer following a good performance in their opening match.

Netherlands Win to Nil

Holland goalkeeper Maarten Stekelenburg had little to do against Denmark and is likely to be similarly underemployed against Japan. I have reservations about Holland's back four - their lack of proven quality in goal and defence is the reason I would swerve them in the outright market at [10.5] - but they should have a pretty easy time against a Japan side lacking a single outstanding striker.

Eleven of the 14 wins in the tournament so far have been to nil so if, like me, you expect Holland to win, the price of [2.2] on them winning to nil is worth taking. Those odds are the market's way of saying Holland's chances of winning while keeping a clean sheet are less than 50-50. I'd say their chances are bigger than that.

Total Corners

Japan are the only side in the tournament to have failed to win a single corner, which tells you everything about the largely defensively approach they took against Cameroon and the fact most of their best play comes through the middle.

Holland are the exact opposite - their 4-3-3 involves plenty of wing play - but Holland alone will struggle to push the corners count into double figures. They won six corners against Denmark and will adopt a similar attacking strategy against Japan, so there's no reason to back the corners tally to reach 10 or above.

At the time of writing the corners spread is [9.7]-[10.2]. I suggest a small sell at [9.7].

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market (by Matthew Walton)

These two sides faced each other back in September when the Dutch ran out comfortable 3-0 winners - a result which perfectly illustrates the profile of both these countries.

In eight qualifiers Holland's goals were F17 A2, with a ratio of 4:4 for the over/under 2.5 goals mark, as they scored in every game and netted at least twice six times. In other words, good at the back and good going forward.

By contrast Japan played eight qualifying games and only scored more than once in two matches (Bahrain & Qatar) with a 5:3 record in favour of under 2.5 goals.

Data which suggests that for this match to generate over 2.5 goals traders might have to rely on the Dutch bagging all three themselves - and with them already on three points in the group, should they take the lead they could easily settle for a comfortable win. This makes under 2.5 goals [1.7] the bet.

Best Bet: James Eastham says: Back Holland to win to nil @ [2.2].
Other Recommended Bet: Sell total corners @ [9.7].

Tags: Arjen Robben, Dirk Kuyt, Holland, Japan, Rafael van der Vaart, Robin van Persie, South Africa, World Cup 2010, World Cup betting previews, World Cup news