Group E / Tobias Gourlay / 13 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

As Arjen Robben lies injured on the sidelines again, Tobias Gourlay assesses the Oranje's level of brilliance without him.

"Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie, Rafael van der Vaart and Wesley Sneijder have all played together in Oranje for only 23 minutes of one match."

Venue: Soccer City, Johannesburg
UK Kick-Off Time: 1230

Group E's opening match pits its two European teams against each other. The Netherlands and Denmark meet at Soccer City, Johannesburg, where a revamp for this tournament has made the stadium that will host the final the biggest in Africa. Both teams have known for months that their first game will be at high altitude and should be well prepared for it.

Match Odds

The markets have seen a lot of interest in the Netherlands just prior to the tournament. Bert van Marwijk's simple strategy, as popularly characterised in the buildup, has lots to recommend it - a traditional back four, a couple of hard midfielders to protect them and lots of freedom for four very talented attackers - but consider the following: Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie, Rafael van der Vaart and Wesley Sneijder have all played together in Oranje for only 23 minutes of one match. It was a brilliant 23 minutes, when they scored twice against France at Euro 2008, but the fact is that Dirk Kuyt (Liverpool has another fifth Beatle) started more qualifying games than any of the fab four. If, as seems likely, Robben fails to recover from his latest injury, [1.53] for the Dutch win will look quite short.

Morten Olsen will build his team for the tournament around a couple of strong centre-halves who are careful with the ball when they get it, even though Dan Agger and young Simon Kjaer only played a couple of qualifiers together. The coach has gone with a counterattacking 4-3-3 for a while now and it's remarkable how many players are recognisable from previous major tournaments - Tomasson, Rommedahl, Gronkjaer, Jorgensen all still feature, even if none are improving with age.

First Goalscorer/To Score

In the last few weeks there's been a run on van Persie in the Golden Boot market. This reflects the individual's good form as well as his team's; the 1 in the Oranje's 4-2-3-1 scored four times in recent friendly victories over Hungary, Ghana and Mexico. Kuyt and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar were top scorers in qualifying with three goals each. The value, though, is with Sneijder, the chief free-kick-taker, at [3.55] to score anytime and, in a tournament of few goals to this point, at [9.0] to be first goalscorer.

Jon Dahl Tomasson only needs a couple of goals to become Denmark's all-time leading scorer, but that record would be testament to his longevity, rather than any special adroitness in front of goal. Indeed, the Feyenoord man is now two years without a goal at international level. If fit, Nicklas Bendtner should be a clear favourite to score for the Danes, but he has been training alone of late and hasn't featured in any of his country's warm-up games. The apparently strong international record of Soren Larsen, Bendtner's most likely replacement, is inflated by goals against very weak opponents. The best value might lie with Agger, who has a strong shot, a noteworthy aerial presence and three international goals in 32 appearances.

Correct Score

The Netherlands have won 11 of their 55 competitive matches since the 2002 World Cup by two goals to nil. If you're prepared to assume they will win this game, then consider that 11/33 competitive victories have come that way and that the scoreline is available at [7.4] in the Correct Score market.

First Corner

Their inferiority over 90 minutes is not in dispute, but should Denmark be as long as [2.52] to win the game's first corner? Despite looking thoroughly tame throughout their match with South Korea yesterday, Greece won the first corner of that game. The Danes' points of attack will be the Dutch full-backs and, if he plays, self-confident Bendtner won't be afraid to shoot early and often.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market (by Matthew Walton)

With the Dutch we think of flair, attacking play and goals. They were 4:4 on the over/under 2.5 goals in eight qualifying matches, 12 of their last 25 internationals have produced a higher make-up and they're 5:4 in favour of the figure in their last nine group matches dating back to 1994. So this view is fair ... to a point.

However, the Danes, by contrast, are less productive. A total of 21 goals in 10 qualifiers (four over, six under) and a recent group record in finals which is 4:2 in favour of under 2.5 goals.

The key lies with the defences - Holland have conceded just 12 goals in their last 20 matches, Denmark only 14 - which clearly favours a lower make-up.

The price [1.78], is bigger than for most games thus far, illustrating just how close this match is to call, but in a tight group it looks most likely.

Best Bet: Back Netherlands 2-0 Correct Score at [7.4] v Denmark

Recommended Bet: Back Wesley Sneijder at [9.0] to be First Goalscorer

Tags: Arjen Robben, Bert van Marwijk, Daniel Agger, Denmark, Dirk Kuyt, Jon Dahl Tomasson, Morten Olsen, Netherlands, Nicklas Bendtner, Robin van Persie, Tobias Gourlay, Wesley Sneijder, World Cup Betting, World Cup Tips