Ghana / James Eastham / 20 June 2010 / 1 Comments Free £25 Bet

Ghana top Group D going into this decisive encounter, but James Eastham says you should invest in Germany on Wednesday night because the Black Stars are overrated.

"The problem with backing Germany players in the goalscorer markets is that Joachim Low's team share the goals around. We saw that in their 4-0 win against Australia - four different players got on the scoresheet."

Venue: Johannesburg
UK Kick-Off Time: 19:30

Introduction

Ghana, on 4pts, need only a draw to reach the last 16, although they need to win to be sure of topping the group.

Germany need to win to be absolutely sure of going through, although a draw will be good enough for them to make the second round if the group's other fixture between Serbia and Australia finishes all-square or if Australia win by less than a seven-goal margin. But Joachim Low's side will be taking no chances, so Germany will play to win.

Miroslav Klose is suspended, but Germany have plenty of firepower and Low is expecting a quick match: "Ghana are fast and can play well on the counter-attack. They don't shy away from one-on-one duels as they are strong. The general tempo will be higher than against Serbia. The Serbs were a bit slow out of the blocks and they played for a draw, with only one forward. "

Match Odds

Ghana are widely-regarded as Africa's best side at the tournament so far, although they were slightly disappointing in failing to capitalise on their one-man advantage against Australia last Friday. Having equalised through an Asamoah Gyan penalty after Harry Kewell was sent off, the Black Stars were unable to make their extra man count.

Germany's need for points is not the only reason they will be motivated: certain players in their squad are still smarting about Klose's red card in their 1-0 defeat against Serbia, although he did make some foolish challenges. Lukas Podolski missed a penalty and Germany had the better goalscoring chances, but it was one of those days when they simply couldn't make the breakthrough.

Having watched all four games involving these two sides, I'd give Germany a better chance of winning. Ghana have yet to score in open play, and have quite literally been handed goals in their two games so far. If Germany come anywhere near the standard of flowing football they played in their opening 4-0 rout of Australia they should win.

That said, the price of [1.55] on the Germans looks a tad short. I'd avoid it, although neither Ghana at [7.4] or the draw at [4.4] has any appeal.

First Goalscorer / To Score

Podolski will be desperate to make amends for that missed penalty against Serbia and there will be even more onus than normal on him to find the net as Klose is suspended. Podolski is [2.62] to score anytime, which places him second in the market behind the unusually short-priced Mario Gomez ([2.46]).

Germany's Brazil-born striker Cacau is [2.72], which is worth considering as he's likely to replace Klose, with Thomas Muller [3.65] and Bastian Schweinsteiger [5.1]. The problem, though, as we saw against Australia, is that Germany share the goals around - four different players got on the scoresheet in that match - so there's a risk of you picking the wrong player or players if you plump for one and even two players to be on target for Germany.

Gyan has scored two goals in two games for Ghana, which explains his price of [4.1]. Both his strikes came from the penalty spot, however, although his finishing was excellent in the 2009-10 league season at French side Rennes. Kwadwo Asamoah is unafraid to try his luck from long distance, so is worth considering at [11.5] although, like his team-mates, his finished has left a lot to be desired.

Both Teams to Score?

This is an all-or-nothing game between two attack-minded sides (Ghana may have struggled to score in open play, but their intentions have been obvious). Just as Germany took the game to Australia from the first whistle in their opening match, so I expect Low's players to adopt the same attitude here - quick, attacking play, lots of movement on the wings and an attempt to gain an early stranglehold on the match.

Should Germany secure an early advantage, Ghana will have to come out of their shells, and if they do so they ought to manage to pierce the Germany defence at some point. I've been unimpressed with the German centre-back pairing of Per Mertesacker and Arne Friedrich. They have had little to do and made few individual errors but you get the feeling that a more concerted attacking effort from an opposing side will prove their undoing sooner or later.

'Yes' is the outsider of two in the Both Teams to Score? market. I'm willing to take the price of [2.16] in a game where I feel both teams (rather than just Germany) will end up needing to score to secure their places in the last 16.

Half Time/Full Time

Few sides are better under pressure than Germany, so for the reasons outlined above I expect Low's side to take the initiative from the start of the game. His team are most effective when they move the ball quickly, use the full width of the pitch and combine power and pace in attacking positions. We saw how ruthless Germany were against Australia having taken an early lead, and I think Germany have the capacity to go 2-0 or 3-0 up against Ghana before potentially easing off.

Twelve of 22 sides that have won games have led at half-time as well, which means 38% of games have seen the same team leading at half-time and winning the game. That figure of 38% translates into odds of [2.63] - and, although Germany-Germany is [2.52] on the Half Time/Full Time market, I'm willing to back that outcome because I believe this game will have less tension and intrigue than many observers expect.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market (By Matthew Walton)

Only a win guarantees Germany a place in the R16. Ghana can afford a draw - but it's surely a risky strategy to play for one. That would suggest goals here in Johannesburg.

However, that view is tempered by several noteworthy factors (1) the suspension of Germany's main striker Miroslav Klose added to (2) the fact Germany's last 25 internationals only show a marginal 13:12 preference for a higher make-up and (3) the Ghanaians themselves, who have a major 16:9 bias towards low-scoring matches.

These contrasting viewpoints are reflected in a tight market which is [1.87] for under 2.5 goals and [2.12] for the higher mark.

Such a market gives traders an incentive to play either way but, given the fact that whoever scores first will look to defend rather than extend their advantage, the percentage call would be to settle on the lower figure for this crucial Group D match.

Best Bet: James Eastham says: Back Germany-Germany Half Time/Full Time @ [2.52].
Other Recommended Bet: Back Both Teams to Score @ [2.16].

Tags: Asamoah Gyan, Cacau, Germany, Ghana, Joachim Low, Luks Podolski, Mario Gomez, Miroslav Klose, South Africa, World Cup 2010, World Cup betting preview