Germany / James Eastham / 06 July 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

James Eastham rounds off a profitable tournament with a look at Wednesday night's mouth-watering semi-final, where some of the more unusual markets offer better value than the match odds.

"Bastian Schweinsteiger's excellent scoring record at international level - he's roughly averaged a goal every four games - makes him a decent bet to find the net in one of Germany's remaining two games and makes his price of [8.6] to score look too big."

Venue: Durban
UK Kick-Off Time: 19:30

Introduction

Germany are the competition's highest scorers (13 goals in five games) but will be without Thomas Muller, who is suspended. Toni Kroos and Piotr Trochowski are the strongest candidates to replace four-goal Muller.

Arne Friedrich (foot) - the best centre-half in the competition so far - and midfielder Sami Khedira (hamstring) missed training on Monday but are expected to be fit. Spain coach Vincente del Bosque's biggest dilemma is whether to drop Fernando Torres and select an extra midfielder, probably Cesc Fabregas. The European champions have looked far more effective whenever the Liverpool striker has been substituted.

Match Odds

Even a month ago you'd have been called barmy for saying Germany had as much chance as Spain of winning a World Cup semi-final. But such has been the improvement in the Mannschaft's form that they must now be considered as likely as Spain to reach the final. Even more implausibly, many neutrals would prefer to see them go through because of the outstanding football they've played.

The market has learned its lesson after making Germany rank outsiders to beat Argentina in the previous round. This time the two sides are priced up pretty evenly - Spain are [2.7] to win in 90 minutes, with Germany [2.96] - meaning the value simply isn't there. As the outsider of three, the draw at [3.35] would be my selection, but I've no strong preference.

First Goalscorer / To Score

Miroslav Klose is closing in on Ronaldo's all-time scoring record of 15 goals at World Cup finals, so will be hugely motivated to find the target (one more goal and he draws level with the legendary Brazilian). Klose is [3.25] to find the net anytime in 90 minutes and will have plenty of support following his two-goal performance against Argentina.

Head-to-head with Klose in the battle for the Golden Boot is David Villa, who tops the scorers chart with five goals. Villa is [2.28] to find the net, a price that is too big considering his international record of 43 goals in 63 games but too short compared to Klose given that the two sides stand a fairly equal chance of winning the game.

The only thing missing from the repertoire of Bastian Schweinsteiger is a goal. His excellent scoring record at international level - he's netted a goal every four games, equating to a price of [5.0] - suggests he stands a decent chance of finding the net in one of Germany's two remaining games and makes his price of [8.6] to score anytime look too big. He'd be my pick.

Corners Match Bet

Germany are the tournament's highest scorers but their corners count is remarkably low: they've never managed more than seven corners in a game, averaged 5.2 corners a match and lost three of five corners match bets to date.

Spain have twice managed 12 corners in two games, averaged 8.2 corners a game and won four of five corners match bets, drawing the other one. The stats are overwhelmingly in Spain's favour, so I'm shocked Vincente del Bosque's side are as big as [1.88] to obtain more corners than Germany. Get on while you can.

Both Teams to Score?

Germany's defence has turned out to be better than we first thought, but there's no question that you can score against Joachim Low's side purely because their style of play gives you chances to get at them. Serbia and England are the only sides to have breached Germany's back four, but Spain have the skill and finishing ability to find the net.

It's hard to know how good Spain's defence is because their back four has rarely been tested. When you dominate possession the way Spain do (they've kept the ball for an average of 63% of the time in games) your defenders are only sporadically called into action, but the Germans will provide a far stiffer test of Carles Puyol and Gerard Pique than toothless Portugal and Paraguay managed in the last two rounds.

I expect an open, entertaining game in which both sides should get on the scoresheet. The price of [1.98] on 'Yes' in the Both Teams to Score? market is shorter than we've seen at most games in the tournament, but it's justified.

The Over/Under 2.5 goals Market (By Matthew Walton)

There is plenty of recent form between these countries - they last met barely two years ago in the Euro 2008 final (where Spain won 1-0). In fact, five encounters since 1982 in various European or World Cup finals have been 4:1 in favour of under 2.5 goals.

And this may set the trend here in Durban - let's not forget both sides have conceded just two goals apiece so far in this tournament. Admittedly the Germans have a 3:2 record in favour of over 2.5 goals (and a free-scoring record in qualifying) but Spain's defence surely won't be as generous as Australia, England or Argentina. And for their part, the Spanish attack (even with Villa) is hardly on fire with just six goals in their five matches.

Therefore, a combination of the available head-to-head data, added to current tournament form and the traditionally tight nature of SF matches, make under 2.5 goals [1.75] by far the best play.

Best Bet: James Eastham says: Back Spain in Corners Match Bet market @ [1.88].
Other Recommended Bet: Bastian Schweinsteiger to score anytime @ [8.6].

JAMES EASTHAM'S WORLD CUP BETTING RECORD
Best Bets: 9.03pts profit, after 5% commission (1pt per bet) 45.1% ROI
Other Recommended Bets: 5.72pts profit, after 5% commission (1pt per bet) 28.6% ROI
Overall: 40pts staked, 14.75pts profit (after 5% commission) 36.9% ROI

Tags: Bastian Schweinsteiger, both teams to score, corners, David Villa, Germany, Joachim Low, Miroslav Klose, South Africa 2010, Spain, Thomas Muller, Vincente del Bosque, World Cup betting