Group D / James Eastham / 11 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Germany are understandably favourites, but their problems in goal might open the way for Australia to spring a surprise, writes James Eastham.

"Miroslav Klose, five-goal top scorer at the last World Cup and Germany's seven-goal top scorer in the qualifiers, is not a certainty to start, so wait for team news before backing him to score."

Venue: Durban
UK Kick-Off Time: 19:30

No Germany side in living memory has contained as few household names, but it's been business as usual for the Nationalmannschaft: Germany have won their final three warm-up friendlies, scoring three goals each time v Bosnia, Hungary and Malta.

Australia's 3-1 defeat to United States last week ended a run of four straight friendly wins, although their team news is good. Harry Kewell, Brett Emerton and Tim Cahill have all been declared fit after overcoming injuries.

Match Odds

Germany have won their opening fixtures at the last five World Cups but their price of [1.51] is too short for me. They were excellent during the qualifiers but go into the finals without first-choice goalkeeper Rene Adler and inspirational captain Michael Ballack, among others. If anything they're a lay. It's certainly worth waiting until the game gets under way before backing them if you fancy them, because as long as Germany don't score an early goal you'll find a bigger price later in the first-half.

Australia are [8.2], with the draw [4.5]. Backing the Socceroos would be an almighty gamble, as they have no pedigree of beating top sides at World Cup finals, but their large odds open up handicap opportunities. I'd leave the match odds alone but use them to look for value elsewhere.

First Goalscorer / To Score

Miroslav Klose, five-goal top scorer at the last World Cup and Germany's seven-goal top scorer in the qualifiers, is not a certain starter, so be careful about backing him at [2.16] to score anytime before team news arrives. Bayern Munich's Mario Gomez ([2.16]) and Brazilian-born Cacau ([2.44]), who has scored three times in eight internationals since becoming a naturalised German last year, are both contenders for a place in Germany's starting line-up.

For Australia, Kewell ([4.4]) is likely to start in an unfamiliar centre-forward position, although he has played there successfully for Galatasarary this season. Cahill may better value at the same price, however. We know all about his runs into the penalty area for Everton, and he was Australia's four-goal joint-top scorer (alongside Emerton) in the qualifiers.

Asian handicap

Are Germany really more than a goal better than the Australians in a game where both sides will be finding their feet on neutral territory? The market says they are, but I'm unconvinced. The chances of Joachim Low's side winning by two goals or more appear slim, so backing Australia with a +1.0-goal start on the Asian handicap at [2.12] is a sound bet. If Australia win or draw the game, you'll make a profit. If they lose by a single goal, you'll get your stake money back.

Both teams to Score?

Germany goalkeeper Manuel Neuer will start only because Rene Adler picked up a rib injury in April. Neuer was third-choice until Robert Enke's suicide last November, so Germany will lack their usual authority in goal. Arne Friedrich and Per Mertesacker are experienced defenders (although the versatile Friedrich has not always played as a centre-half), but may struggle to contain Australia's attack in what looks likely to be an open and entertaining game.

I expect Germany to score, so while backing 'No' in the Germany Clean Sheet? market at [1.9] is an option, I prefer 'Yes' in Both teams to Score at
[2.24].

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market (by Matthew Walton)

'G' not only stands for 'Germany' but for 'Goals'. With a total of 31 in 10 qualifying matches (5:5 over/under) and all three pre-World Cup warm up matches making up at over 2.5 goals, we should expect any game involving the Germans to involve action at both ends of the pitch.

Australia were much more circumspect in qualifying (only 13 goals in 8 games ... but what goal threat did Uzbekistan pose?). More meaningful are five friendlies prior to coming to South Africa (of which four made up at over 2.5 goals) and, like Germany, the group phase of the 2006 finals when they were over 2.5 goals in two of their three games.

Two nations who don't like to lose, this match has the potential to see goals and although the Socceroos lack real offensive quality, a less than watertight German rearguard will give them hope. Over 2.5 goals [2.1] is the value here.

Best bet: Germany v Australia Both teams to Score @ [2.24].

Other Recommended bet: Australia +1 Asian handicap @ [2.12].

Tags: Australia, Germany, Harry Kewell, Miroslav Klose, South Africa 2010, Tim Cahill, World Cup betting, World Cup previews