USA / James Eastham / 16 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

There's some serious needle between these two sides going into the game, so expect plenty of action on and off the ball, writes James Eastham.

"Yet I'm surprised to find USA as short as [2.2] to win, with Slovenia 3.95 and the draw [3.35]. The States are the better side, but I have reservations about their ability to create chances in open play, so I recommend avoiding the match market."

Slovenia midfielder Andrej Komac has shot himself and his team in the foot by claiming Slovenia will win. United States players are now even more up for a game that was already very important to them.

"It's definitely a premature comment to make," reacted Oguchi Onyewu," while Tim Howard added: "Talk is cheap. He has got to stand toe-to-toe with us for 90 minutes. If he's still standing, then I'll take my hat off to him. But a lot of boxers talk, too. Then they are looking up at the lights. The next thing they know they are trying to figure out how they got there."

Howard is the main injury concern for the States - he picked up a rib injury against England last Saturday. He says he'd rather not know whether they're broken. "Time is a good healer, [but] it's going to be sore. I'm a firm believer in adrenaline."

Match Odds

Slovenia may have three points to USA's one but the States were the more impressive of the two sides in their opening games. Slovenia scored a lucky goal to beat an Algeria side that might have won had notoriously defensive coach Rabah Saadane let his players off the leash after they dominated the opening 20 minutes, while USA defended well and came close to scoring on a couple of occasions from set-pieces to nick a win against England (although they also needed a goalkeeper's helping hand to find the net).

Yet I'm surprised to find USA as short as [2.2] to win, with Slovenia [3.95] and the draw [3.35]. The States are the better side, but I have reservations about their ability to create chances in open play, so I recommend avoiding the match market.

First Goalscorer / To Score

Landon Donovan ([3.8]) and Clint Dempsey ([4.1]) head the 'To Score' market, but those prices are short considering how few chances USA created in open play against England. Bob Bradley's side ought to find it easier to carve out opportunities against an inferior Slovenia defence, but I'm not taking those odds.

Some of the defenders on view offer better value as set-pieces will be such an important part of USA's gameplan and Slovenia may profit in the air if Tim Howard's rib injury restricts his movement. Carlos Bocanegra has scored at least once in each of the past six seasons (he struck five times in 2006-07) and has a habit of netting crucial goals - he hit the target in the Europa League last season and scored for Rennes in the 2009 Coupe de France final. And Onyewu, who stands 6ft 3in, scored five goals in two seasons at Standard Liege before joining AC Milan last summer.

Slovenia's Bostjan Cesar is less accurate but a tricky customer whose forehead will be one of his side's primary targets at set-pieces. I recommend backing all three players at double figures. If one of them comes in, you'll make a profit.

Bookings Odds

Komac's pre-match comments have added spice to a game where there was already plenty at stake. Neither side is what you would call 'dirty', but USA are a physical, athletic team who handle themselves well. I expect a niggly, tetchy performance from a Slovenia side that would settle for a point, which could mean bookings for illegally breaking up the play and time-wasting.

In their opening matches, USA picked up three bookings and Slovenia two. In this market, you get 2pts for a yellow card and 5pts for a red, so the bookings make-up was 10. I'd be surprised to see fewer than five yellow cards, so back the bookings make-up to be 9pts or above.

Corners Odds

The corners count was low for both sides in their opening games: USA won just four corners against England, and Slovenia just three against Algeria. There's an obvious lack of width in both sides: the USA rely on their full-backs to get forward because their attacking players are all stationed in fairly central positions, while Slovenia's best attacking play came through the middle.

The two sides are likely to take a more offensive approach this time than in their last games, but the corners count is likely to remain low. Backing nine corners or fewer looks the smart bet.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market (by Matthew Walton)

The advice is to back under 2.5 goals at [1.53] but in a game of contrasting styles, much will depend upon which side, if any, dominates the play.

With regards to the US, they have registered over 2.5 goals in 18 of their last 25 matches - conceding goals in 19 and scoring in no fewer than 22. In fact, their open style of play is best illustrated by the fact they've played 39 games since their last 0-0 draw back in June 2008.

Slovenia, however, have registered under 2.5 goals in 14 of their last 25 matches and during that sequence there have been 18 occasions when at least one side didn't score. Recent performances against quality opposition (like England, Russia and the Czech Republic) give ample evidence they won't be easy opponents to face.

A crucial 'must not lose' match for both teams, the logic of a low-scoring game just outweighs the gut-feeling that goals may flow.

Best bet: James Eastham says: Back 9pts and above in Bookings Odds @ [1.77].
Other Recommended Bet: Back Oguchi Onyewu ([13)], Carlos Bocanegra ([15)] and Bostjan Cesar ([18]) to score anytime (split your stakes)

Tags: Bostjan Cesar, Carlos Bocanegra, Oguchi Onyewu, Slovenia, South Africa, Tim Howard, USA, World Cup 2010, World Cup betting preview