USA / James Eastham / 25 June 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

After making 5.25pts profit (after 5% commission) from 32pts staked (16.4% ROI) on World Cup first round matches, James Eastham previews the last-16 clash between Ghana and the United States taking place on Saturday night.

"Every Golden Boot winner since Gary Lineker in 1986 has scored at least twice by the end of the group stages. Landon Donovan and Asamoah Gyan are two of 11 players left in the competition that fall into that category."

Venue: Rustenburg
UK Kick-Off Time: 19:30

Introduction

The USA players are still buzzing after their last-gasp winner against Algeria that saw them through to this stage. Midfielder Maurice Edu said: "You have to go into games confident and we'll definitely be feeding off that win. This experience that we have right now and the excitement that we're feeling, we want to have that same feeling at the end of the game on Saturday."

There's very little team news coming out of either camp, although no key players are suspended.

Match Odds

USA may have needed that injury-time winner against Algeria to get through but they were undoubtedly the best side in Group C. Only an absurd refereeing decision - he ruled out what looked like a perfectly good Edu winner - prevented them beating Slovenia 3-2, and they also had a goal controversially chalked off against Algeria. In the end, Bob Bradley's side won Group C on goals scored ahead of England, but their margin of superiority could have been much more comfortable.

Ghana played fast, powerful football in Group D and deserved to go through alongside Germany, although they have actually yet to score in open play. Having watched all six games involving these sides, I'd say this match is about as close to 50-50 as a second-round tie could get. The prices of USA at [2.76] and Ghana at [3.00] to win the game look about right to me, but given that I view this as a pretty even three-horse race I'd rather back the outsider - the draw - at [3.20].

First Goalscorer / To Score

Two players stand out from the crowd - Landon Donovan and Asamoah Gyan. Both men have scored twice in the competition, although Donovan is probably the better bet because both Gyan's goals have come from the penalty spot (he's looked less sharp in open play than he does for club side Rennes). I'm shocked that Donovan is [3.75] to score anytime - misfiring team-mate Jozy Altidore is [3.5] - while Gyan is [3.25]. Even more reason to back Donovan.

While we're dealing with the pair, it's worth noting that every Golden Boot winner since Gary Lineker in 1986 has scored at least twice by the end of the group stages. Donovan and Gyan are two of 11 players left in the competition that fall into that category, and with one of the potentially simpler routes to the semi-finals opening up before them - the winners of this game face the winners of Uruguay v South Korea in the quarter-finals - you may want to back one of the two in the Top Goalscorer - Top 4 market. The pair are both [10.5] in that market.

Method of Victory

In the last three World Cups, four last-16 games have been decided in extra-time and three on penalties. That's 16% and 13% of all last-16 games respectively, equating to odds around [6.50] and [7.50]. The prices on either side winning on penalties are shorter than those odds say they should be, but you can back USA and Ghana to win in extra-time at [13.0] and [13.5] respectively. This is a decent alternative to backing the full-time draw if you think the game will end in a stalemate after 90 minutes.

Total Corners

We made a huge profit selling Total Corners on New Zealand v Paraguay the other day and I'm inclined to go down the same road with Ghana v USA. Corners have been in short supply in the States' games - they've won only four in each of their three games to date - while Ghana have won four, six and four in their three fixtures. All of which suggests the corners count is likely to be relatively low. I predict Ghana's priority will be defending during the first-half, too, which makes few corners even more likely. I'd sell at [9.5] or higher.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market (By Matthew Walton)

These two countries have only met once, in Germany 2006, when Ghana won 2-1 and sent the Americans home. That may prove an omen for the result but it's doubtful whether that group match has any bearing on this game's make up.

All three of Ghana's group matches were under 2.5 goals, USA were 2:1 in favour of the lower figure. Furthermore, as the historical data tells us, matches in the last 16 have a distinct leaning towards under 2.5 goals (a ratio of almost 2:1).

The preference for a tight affair is then further compounded by the last 25 internationals for Ghana which are 17:8 in favour of under 2.5 goals ... and although the US are coincidentally 17:8 in favour of over 2.5 goals during that same period that is maybe offset, to a degree, by the standard of their opposition.

As a result, despite the odd reservation, under 2.5 goals [1.58] is the call.

Best Bet: James Eastham says: Sell Total Corners @ [9.5]
Other Recommended Bet: Ghana v USA draw @ [3.20].

Tags: Asamoah Gyan, betting previews, Ghana, Landon Donovan, South Africa, USA, World Cup 2010