Nigeria / James Eastham / 22 June 2010 / 2 Comments Free £25 Bet

There will be very little to choose between the sides on Tuesday night, so ignore the Match Odds and look at other markets for value, says James Eastham.

"The corners stats for both sides are remarkably low: Nigeria won just four corners against Argentina and three against Greece, while South Korea managed six against Greece but only two against Argentina."

Venue: Durban
UK Kick-Off Time: 19:30

Introduction

South Korea are joint-second (alongside Greece) in Group B with 3pts, so their chances of reaching the second round depend on the result of the Argentina v Greece clash as well as the outcome of this fixture.

South Korea midfielder Kim Jung Woo says his team will play to win against Nigeria although the Asian side may adopt a cautious approach in the first-half.

The midfielder said: "We want to win. We must try not to concede a goal, especially early on. We'll have to be very organised from the start."

Nigeria have zero points from two games, but may still progress on goal difference if they win and Argentina beat Greece. The Super Eagles will be without suspended midfielder Sani Kaita.

Match Odds

Which South Korea will turn up: the one that outplayed Greece 2-0 or the team that defensively collapsed 4-1 against Argentina? Some say the result against Diego Maradona's swashbuckling side was misleading because South Korea had a chance to equalise when they were 2-1 down, but they spent most of the game chasing shadows, and got on the scoresheet only thanks to Martin Demichelis' moment of inattention.

I make this game a three-horse race, with the win-lose-draw outcomes all equally likely, so the best value in the match market appears to be stalemate at [3.35]. South Korea are [2.62] and Nigeria [3.05], although none of the three options is particularly appealing.

First Goalscorer / To Score

Bolton's Lee Chung Yong was outstanding against Argentina and fully deserved to score the goal that pulled his side back into the match on the stroke of half-time. His bursts from midfield have been one of the highlights of the tournament, so I'd consider backing him to score anytime at [5.6]. Team-mate Park Ji Sung will attract plenty of backers at [5.1], while Park Chu Young, their main striker, has been disappointing in both games. I'd avoid him at [3.15] to score anytime.

Yakubu Ayegbeni came close to scoring in Nigeria's 2-1 defeat against Greece, so is worth considering at [3.55]. Obafemi Martins is [3.9] but unlikely to start, with Taye Taiwo a speculative option at [13.0]. The Marseille left-back's success rate from free-kicks and long range is appalling, so statistically there's no value in his price, but every so often he leaves you open-mouthed by hitting the target from 25 yards. An all-or-nothing player, he's the option to keep you entertained during the game.

Corners Odds

The corners stats for both sides at the tournament so far are remarkably low: Nigeria won just four against Argentina and three v Greece, while South Korea managed six against Greece in their opening game but only two v Argentina in their second match.

Add those stats together and divide and the predicted number of corners for this game is 7.5. Simplistic, perhaps, but there's been so little effective wing play from either side that a low corners count appears likely.

I recommend backing nine corners or fewer at [2.1].

Bookings Odds

If you leave aside Kaita's rush of blood against Greece (he kicked out at Vasileios Torosidis in the first-half, earning a red card), Nigeria and South Korea have been among the cleanest sides in the tournament.

Both teams have earned just two yellow cards so far, suggesting the bookings count should be low in this game as well even though much is at stake.

Referee Olegario Benquerenca is a significant factor, too. He adopted a no-nonsense approach during the Japan v Cameroon, forcing players off the field to receive treatment and telling players to get to their feet quickly.

The Portuguese official's approach tended to cut-down play-acting, which should further reduce the bookings count.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Column (by Matthew Walton)

Statistically the Africans produce a low make-up of goals (e.g. being 8:4 in favour of under 2.5 goals in qualifying) and when added to South Korea's miserly record (which fails to reach an average of even 2 goals/game for all their qualifiers and friendlies prior to coming to South Africa) the omens aren't good for this match.

That said, with Nigeria still mathematically in the tournament and South Korea also needing a positive result here in Durban both sides have to approach this game with a view to winning it.

This should ensure a committed 90 minutes of action but with each side better suited to defence than attack it might be a case of nick a goal and look to close out the game - a possibility which just points to under 2.5 goals [1.69] being the better play in what could be a tight match between two sides who played badly last time out.

Lay 9pts and above in the Bookings Odds market at [1.8] or better.

Bet Bet: James Eastham says: Corners Odds 9 or less @ [2.1].
Other Recommended Bet: Bookings Odds lay 9pts and above @ [1.8].

Tags: Group B, James Eastham, Lars Lagerback, Nigeria, Park Chu Young, Park Ji Sung, South Africa 2010, South Korea, World Cup betting, World Cup preview, Yakubu Ayegbeni