Argentina / James Eastham / 02 July 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

One of the most mouth-watering quarter-finals takes place at Cape Town Stadium on Saturday afternoon - and, just as in 2006, there promises to be no love lost between the sides, writes James Eastham.

"Gabriel Heinze has already scored and is worth considering in the 'To Score' market at [17.0]. If England can exploit Germany's aerial weaknesses by scoring from a cross, then Heinze will have a chance of netting."

Venue: Cape Town
UK Kick-Off Time: 15:00

Introduction

There's fiery history between these two teams following the violent end to their clash at the same stage of the 2006 finals. One or two German players have had a pop at their Argentinian opponents in the past week, and Diego Maradona has responded.

"What's the matter Schweinsteiger? Are you nervous? It doesn't worry me when he says we don't know how to lose," says the Argentina manager. "Every game is different and this is going to be different because we are coming out to attack them and play in their faces. That's why they're nervous."

It looks as though Nicolas Burdisso will keep his place ahead of Walter Samuel, whose fitness remains in question. Germany are likely to name an unchanged side following their 4-1 thrashing of England last Sunday.

Match Odds

It's impossible to split these two sides, both as regards their chances of winning the game and the way they play football. Argentina and Germany have played some outstanding attacking football in the tournament - Argentina have scored 10 goals, Germany nine - while providing the occasional glimpse of defensive weakness that will make their opponents believe they can win.

In my view, this is a three-horse race with each of the three outcomes - Argentina win, Germany win and draw - equally likely. Yet the prices make Argentina clear favourites - they're [2.44], with the draw [3.3] and Germany [3.4]. Argentina's odds are impossible to justify, so if you're looking to bet in this market, my advice would be to lay Maradona's side at [2.46].

First Goalscorer / To Score

I've said before that the problem with trying to pick a German player in the goalscorer markets is that they share the goals around. Four different players got on the scoresheet in their opening game against Australia (4-0), and since then playmaker Mesut Ozil has netted as well.

The fact Germany are underdogs to win the game means there are some big prices available. Miroslav Klose is [3.6] to score anytime, with Lukas Podolski [4.4] and Thomas Muller [5.0] I'd be tempted to back any of those at reasonably large odds.

Gonzalo Higuain is the tournament's joint-top scorer, reflected by his price of [2.64]. Lionel Messi is even shorter - [2.56] - despite having failed to find the target so far, but given the rotten luck he's had I'm not prepared to back him at those odds.

He's already scored, but Gabriel Heinze is worth considering at [17.0]. The Argentina centre-half is fantastic in the air, and if England can exploit Germany's aerial weaknesses by scoring from a cross, Heinze will have a chance.

Bookings Odds

Germany have picked up seven yellow cards and one red card (Klose's controversial dismissal against Serbia). Argentina have picked up five yellow cards.

In the Bookings Odds market, those statistics translate as 7.25pts per game (every yellow card is worth 2pts, a red card worth 5pts). So we're nearly moving into the '9pts and above' category, and the needle between the two teams ought to ensure more spicy challenges, scuffles and arguments with the referees than we've seen in their games so far.

My recommendation would be backing 9pts and above in the Bookings Odds market. For that, you'd need five bookings, or a red card and two bookings, during normal time.

Both Teams to Score?

We know Argentina and Germany are among the best attacking sides in the competition, but both make the occasional mistake at the back. Martin Demichelis gifted South Korea a goal in Argentina's 4-1 win and Germany's lax marking allowed Matthew Upson to score last weekend.

Both teams have scored in two of Argentina's four matches and one of Germany's four games. The stats aren't exactly in your favour, then, but I wouldn't be surprised to see both teams net in a game with so much at stake where attacks are stronger than defences. 'Yes' in the Both Teams to Score? market is [1.86]. An alternative would be the 1-1 correct scoreline at [7.4].

The Over/Under 2,5 Goals Market (By Matthew Walton)

A very tight market.

On the one hand, everybody expects goals when these two attack-minded teams meet in Cape Town as they come off the back of respective 3-1 (Argentina) and 4-1 (Germany) wins in the R16. Likewise their qualification matches and recent friendlies have been filled with plenty of goalmouth activity - at both ends.

But, and there is a but, both nations in these finals show the same over/under data (2:2 from their four matches) and, maybe more pertinent, their 10 meetings since Mexico 1986 have generated only four matches over 2.5 goals - playing as recently as March of this year in Munich when Maradona's men won 1-0.

And this last point, added to the context of the match, makes it hard to argue over 2.5 goals is a value price at [2.1] even though it's a distinct possibility. Either wait 10-15 minutes and play at a bigger in-running price or back the unders at what are the better pre-match odds [1.89].

Best Bet: James Eastham says: Back both teams to score @ [1.84].
Other Recommended Bet: Lay Argentina to win in 90 minutes @ [2.46].

James Eastham has made 15.05pts profit (after 5% commission) from 38pts staked on World Cup games (i.e. 39.6% ROI).

Tags: Argentina, Diego Maradona, Germany, Gonzalo Higuain, Joachim Low, Lionel Messi, Lukas Podolski, Miroslav Klose, South Africa 2010, World Cup betting preview