World Cup Betting: Messi or the mountains - which should England fear most?

120 Team England / Ralph Ellis / 14 April 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Lionel Messi's form means Argentina are great value at [9.2]

With less hype and more substance, Fabio Capello is likely to make sure his side is better prepared for the World Cup than any previous England manager. However, oxygen tents won't be enough to stop Argentina's sensational forward, says Ralph Ellis.

"Making England [7.4] third favourites behind Spain [5.2] and Brazil [6.2] comes far more from optimism than logic."

It was Glenn Hoddle who came out with the proud boast that he was going to be in charge of the "best prepared" England squad ever to travel to a World Cup. That was in 1998, and Hoddle was heading for France full of talk about the newly emerging ideas of sports science.

The players were all being given creatine tablets to improve their stamina, the squad were going to fly all over France by private jet from their base in La Baule, and the medical teams were backed up by the faith healing of Eileen Drewery. What could possibly go wrong? It turned out that the "best prepared" squad hadn't practised penalties and the key kick against Argentina went to David Batty, who had not taken one since he was at school.

Ever since, though, successive managers have set off to big tournaments telling us how much more thoroughly they've done their homework. Sadly, the result always seems to have been the same sort of disappointment.

This year it is Fabio Capello's turn, and there's just the slightest chance that while Hoddle, Kevin Keegan and Sven Goran Eriksson talked about preparation, Capello is getting on with actually doing it. The latest leak from England's planning is reported in today's Daily Mail and reveals that some of the players are having altitude tents delivered to their homes to prepare for when they have to hit the heights - literally - in South Africa.

The players have all been monitored at the London Altitude Centre to see how their natural physique might cope with the opening game against USA, which will be played 4,920 feet above sea level in Rustenburg. The results have shown that several will benefit from sleeping in the £550 a month rented tents.

Presumably one of them will be goalkeeper Robert Green, who discovered the difficulties of altitude for himself two years ago when he climbed Kilimanjaro on a charity hike. He reached the top, but then in his own words "my body gave out on me" and it took two days for two porters to help him back down.

That's a dramatic example of what altitude can do, and although England's two other group games are at sea level it's certain that if Capello's side are going to progress to the latter stages of the World Cup they will have to play more games up in the mountains.

Hoddle got in rows with the clubs - especially with Manchester United - over his belief in the power of creatine. Thankfully Capello seems to command far more respect from Sir Alex and the other big bosses. But the altitude issue just highlights how tough it will be for an England team to win the World Cup, even with the quality of preparation the Italian will provide.

Capello's side are [1.37] favourites to win Group C, which should be safe although it pays little respect to an American team that's ranked 16 in the world, just nine places below England. But making them [7.4] third favourites behind Spain [5.2] and Brazil [6.2] comes far more from optimism than logic. Argentina [9.0], have Lionel Messi, after all, and we've seen twice in the last week or so exactly what he's capable of, with or without an oxygen tent.

Five things you might not know about Robert Green

1. Born January 1980 in Chertsey, Surrey, his dad was a hospital consultant and he got 10 GCSEs at Guildford Comprehensive School - where he played fly-half for the rugby team.

2. He joined Norwich at 16, but studied for A levels in law and psychology at nightschool.

3. When he first played for Norwich he was physically sick after games because he couldn't cope with the pressure or the fear of making mistakes.

4. His red card against Ukraine in the penultimate World Cup qualifying match made him the first England goalkeeper ever to be sent off.

5. He plans to go into journalism when his career ends and has written columns for the Independent without the aid of a ghost writer.

Tags: Brazil, England football, Fabio Capello, France, Lionel Messi, Ralph Ellis, Spain, USA, World Cup betting