Winter Olympics Betting: Dr Johnson's secrets for successful betting on Vancouver 2010

General / Richard Douglas / 12 February 2010 / Leave a comment

Lindsay Vonn's injury makes Doctor Johnson's predictions more likely

Economic output, population, political structure, climate and home advantage are just some of the elements included in a mysterious Doctor's phenomenally successful approach to Olympic betting. Read on to learn his secrets...

"Dr Johnson predicts Canada will win the most medals this month, 27 to be precise. It is a relatively bold statement to make; they have never finished in that position before."

Ninety-three percent accurate - yes, that's right, 93% accurate and 94% accurate, 95% accurate. Hang on, 95% accurate? Betfair, be afraid. Be very, very afraid.

These statistics represent the successful medal haul predictions made by one man in the past five Olympics. He claims to know next to nothing about sport and, what he does know plays no part in his thinking.

But, by crikey, he could win you some money over the course of the next fortnight. Dr Daniel Johnson is an economics professor from Colorado who has created a forecasting model based on a number of non-sporting factors - per-capita income (the economic output per person), population, political structure, climate and home advantage.

The last three will come into play heavily in Vancouver. Johnson argues that single-party regimes perform better than democratic ones. Meanwhile climate-wise, Austria's advantage over Australia in Canada is blindingly obvious. Finally the hosts always do well. In the summer games, they typically garner 25 more medals, 12 of which are gold.

Dr Johnson predicts Canada will win the most medals this month, 27 to be precise. It is a relatively bold statement to make; they have never finished in that position before.

If you are prepared put your money where Johnson's mouth is, then lay the bejesus out of Germany in the total medal table. They are the favourites with the Betfair market at [2.28] but the good Doctor believes they will finish seventh in the standings with just 20. It is a hell of a call given their 29 saw them four clear of their nearest rival in Torino four years ago.

As I said, Johnson backs Canada [3.6] to top the pile, but USA and Norway are just one measly medal behind in his estimations. The former are [5.7] while the latter a hefty [19]. The Scandinavians, therefore, are the value.

Johnson's predictions for gold are not quite as accurate - a mere 92%, 89%, 86%, 85% and 84% for the past five Games.

Again Germany are one of the main opportunities according to him. Johnson says they will get seven, the market is giving you [1.69] for anything under 10.5. A small price but there is some margin for error there.

Finland, however, are predicted to be prime movers. They failed to register a gold in Torino but Johnson says they will get four this time. If the get half that total you win the Under 1.5 punt at [1.6].

The price for the US winning less than 9.5 golds is [1.35]. Hardly tempting but Johnson says they will take five and if the injury scare to skier Lindsay Vonn is serious then they may struggle to even reach that.

Make of this what you will of course. But Dr Johnson's accuracy is impressive and there is a small history of disinterested academics understanding sport in a way participants and spectators do not.

Step forward Messrs Duckworth/Lewis.

These two mathematicians, who would not know a googly if it dated their grandmother, worked out a way of harnessing a number of cricketing variables. They helped a complicated sport cope with a difficult issue. Likewise, it seems that both students and punters should pay attention to Dr Johnson's classes from now on.

Tags: Canada Winter Olympics, Doctor Johnson, Richard Douglas, USA Winter Olympics, Vancouver 2010 betting, Winter Olympics betting