When Two Worlds Collide - Something Has to Give.

NFL / Andy Richmond / 02 November 2007 / Leave a Comment

Andy Richmond looks at a clash worthy of the Super Bowl - the New England Patriots versus Indianapolis Colts...

"They're killing us" - those could be the words of any defensive coordinator in the NFL who has had to try and stop or even contain Tom Brady and the Patriots offence in 2007. They're not, instead they come from Robert Walker, sports book director at MGM Mirage Casinos

Looking at the season the Patriots are having it's easy to see why Walker makes that statement, for in every game this season the Patriots have covered every handicap line put in front of them and beaten them by some huge margins.

Are the Patriots that good? Well we should get to find out this week as they run into the another bona fide juggernaut - the defending world champions, the Indianapolis Colts - in a game that I see as Super Bowl XLI ½. Superlatives can be overused in sport but this is the winners of three of the last six Superbowls against the defending world champions. It's the incomparable and cerebral coaching ability of Belichick and Dungy and the golden arms of two of the quarterbacking greats of the modern age - Tom Brady and Payton Manning. But more than anything these two teams harbour the ambition to match the 1972 Dolphins team and go the entire NFL season undefeated. Game of the season? You bet, this is massive and it matters.

Momentum is an all important quality for a team and these two have that in spades but when they come head-to-head it's the Colts who hold all the aces, winning the last three match-ups - the most recent a 38-34 comeback victory in the AFC title game last season, the last Patriots defeat. I'll return to the word 'payback' later as this could be key in this game.

With any game you bet on in the NFL you should know the style and capabilities of each of the teams, so what can we expect on Sunday.

The Patriots have, on the back of Brady's golden arm and a potent receiving core in Moss, Stallworth and Walker, built an aerial attack that the like of the league has never seen - Brady completing around 72% of his passes and throwing 30 TD passes so far this year - remarkable numbers by any stretch of the imagination. This has led them to average nearly 50 points per game in their last three games and they are the first team in NFL history to record three straight 40 plus point games - so at first glance a very powerful offence, but one that relies heavily on the ability to pass and move the ball quickly, they have 1344 more yards passing offence than rushing. Clearly that ability to move the ball quickly through the air is the one key facet that the Colts have to shutdown if they want to win this game as I don't believe that they can outscore the Patriots if they don't.

But this is the best defence that the Patriots will have encountered with cornerbacks Hayden and Jackson being big physical sorts that will provide a big test for the Patriots wide outs, they will be ably supported by a solid line backing core with Dwight Freeney being one to watch and last but not least one of the best safeties in the league in Bob Sanders. They must get pressure on Brady, difficult but not impossible.

If the Brady bunch can pick that lot apart we will be surely seeing one of the best NFL teams ever and one that will be impossible to stop over the coming season.

But hold on - the Colts have weapons and a 7-0 record too and those three consecutive wins over the Patriots and they are at home - so lots of ticks in the plus column there and this Colts offence is far better balanced than the Patriots and whilst they have outside speed from their receivers they do have a stout running game that is equal parts speed and power. Joseph Addai and Kenton Keith will provide Manning with another outlet in the face of the Patriots aggressive pass rush, from a line backing core which is one of the best in football. The Colts offensive line is going to have to be at its best here to provide Manning with the time and space to throw but its that all important outlet to Addai and Keith which will shape how the Colts go about this game.

Earlier I mentioned the word comeback and that is what I believe the Colts may have to do on Sunday, they have the weapons, momentum and ability to do that but most importantly they need to wear down the Patriots defence which for all its one of the best in the game can be worn down late as age starts to catch up them. If the Colts can stay within a score they always have a chance in this game as the Patriots defence can tire and concede points late.

As good as the Patriots are I couldn't be supporting them at 1.47 in the match odds market and feel that they are a solid trading option against a Colts team which hasn't lost at home since January 15th 2006 and hold a three game winning streak over Sunday's opponents. If the Colts keep it close and control the ball the Patriots will certainly trade above that mark during the game - and I can thoroughly recommend you read the piece by my colleague and fellow NFL fanatic Chris Blackham if you want some lessons on how to trade the NFL in play.

For those of you who want to play on the handicap line the Colts +5 ½ points at around the 1.91 mark would be my idea of a play here - even though those Pats have covered the handicap line in every game this year, this is their first real test and it's time to go against the crowd for me.

And finally, if you want an interest in one player, try Colts tight end Dallas Clark in the to score a touchdown market he has the ability to damage in a variety of situations at I will be trying him to back him to score a TD at around the 2.42 mark. He's been one of the unsung heroes of the Colts offence and a valuable outlet for the gifted and quick witted Manning.

If there's one game to watch of the NFL season this is it - sit back, get the beers and snacks ready and watch two titans of the game go head to head. Enjoy the game!!