NFL Betting, Week 17: Never before has so little been at stake, so late in the season

NFL / Andy Richmond / 28 December 2007 / Leave a Comment

Andy Richmond finds little to get excited by on the final weekend of the regular season...

Well we finally arrive at Week 17 of the NFL season and there are only a few issues to be tied up - in fact I can't remember a season where there is so little to be decided on the last weekend.

The most competitive picture is over in the NFC wild card race where the final spot is up for grabs between three teams with the Saints needing divine intervention to extend their season by at least another week. The real battle is between the Redskins and the Vikings and it's advantage Washington after their win in Minnesota last week - a win that came very much against my thinking (in fact the Redskins are fast becoming my nemesis team this year, I just can't get them right).

All Washington need to do is win against Dallas and the sixth and final wild card spot is theirs along with a trip to the west coast to play the Seahwaks. They can even make it if their two rivals for the last spot also lose, so there's plenty in their favour.

This match sums up a lot, if not all, the games in the NFL this week in that only one team has anything to play for. OK you can say that this is Cowboys versus Redskins - one of the oldest and fiercest divisional rivalries - but Dallas are locked into the number one slot and surely won't risk all their starters for the whole game ahead of some tough play-off games to come. Team news is the vital ingredient this week and without that I wouldn't advise anyone to bet on these games until you know who is playing. In fact I would go so far as to say watch the game for a short period of time before getting involved (if you need to) as I get the feeling should the Redskins get in front early then the Cowboys will not be busting a gut to get back into it - despite all the noises about integrity and playing to win coming out of their camp.

The other two games with NFC wild card implications, Saints v Bears and Vikings v Broncos, are similarly lop sided with one team having something to play for and the other side playing out the season. New Orleans and Minnesota are favourites based on the fact that they have to win. That's always dodgy betting ground - look at Israel beating Russia this year when they had 'nothing' to play for in the Euro 2008 qualifiers.

If I had to pick a team to make the wild card spot it would be the Redskins who despite losing their starting QB for the season, having one of the stars of the team murdered and being 5-7 three weeks ago have arrived here with momentum and belief. That can carry a team a long way and Dallas have looked a little tired and jaded over the past few weeks.

Over in the AFC there is even less to be sorted out. The Chargers will be looking to secure the number three play-off spot by beating the Raiders, which shouldn't be too taxing, and that would mean avoiding the Jags in the first round of the play-offs. Believe me, of all the wild card teams, the Jags are the ones nobody wants. Pittsburgh are most likely to welcome Jacksonville.

One wild card spot is up for grabs after a poor end to the season from the Browns. Cleveland have to beat the 49ers at home (which they should do), then sit back and hope that the Colts do them a favour by beating the Titans, who have rather sneaked up the rails for the final wild card spot. Even if the Browns have lost, the Titans will still need to win as the Browns hold a better Conference record. Again the odds because of the game situation are lopsided - when was the last time the Colts were [3.25] at home? Incredible! But as Coach Dungy has said this week he is going to rest his starters at some point, he just doesn't know which point. If you can play in-running you may be able to find an angle, but I know that when I'm betting I like to have all the information that I can have available and in this case I just don't have it.

I've often likened betting to being like doing a big jigsaw puzzle and there are definitely some pieces missing this week. This week it may just pay to keep the powder dry.

Last but not least a couple of words on the Patriots who stand on the edge of the perfect season when they play the Giants on Saturday night. They're respected by many, loathed by others and feared by all - they won't let up on Saturday night - and I fully expect them to go 16-0 but tougher tests will await them in the weeks to come.

Happy New Year to all the NFL fans out there - bring on the play-offs!