NFL / Andy Richmond / 09 January 2009 / Leave a comment

Baltimore go to Tennessee in what is going to be a huge battle while last week's surprise team Arizona face a tough trip east to Carolina. Andy Richmond goes through the odds ahead of both Saturday's divisional match-ups.

Rematches are the theme of this divisional weekend, with the eight teams having met already on five occasions this year. The match-up between the Eagles and Giants will be their third contest of the year. If recent history repeats itself, all these games will be close. The five meetings between these sides have been decided by just 18 points.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Tennessee Titans (13-3)
These two teams are remarkably similar and have the ability to cancel each other out, this was highlighted in their meeting earlier in the season when the Titans edged a 13-10 win in Baltimore, one of their season-opening 10 game winning stretch.

This will be a defensive game, of that there is no doubt. Titans coach Jeff Fisher has always preached defence saying that his teams will be "stout against the run and physical in every way". He could just as well be describing the Ravens defensive unit too. Baltimore destroyed any offensive moment Miami tried to generate last week, making their "wildcat" offence look more like a pussycat offense.

Both of these teams play safe football, relying on their running games when they have the ball and defences to provide turnovers and field position when they don't.

So where do we find some differences and possibly that x-factor which will win this game?
Although Ravens QB rookie Joe Flacco only completed nine of 23 passes, he still produced when he needed to and showed poise and control way beyond his experience. He has a wonderful throwing arm which can unleash the big bomb down the field when the Ravens loosen the offensive shackles.

For Tennessee, another rookie sensation - running back Chris Johnson - will set the tempo when they have the ball. He'll need to be more of a factor on this occasion than he was for their previous meeting, when the Ravens limited him to 44 yards on 18 carries.

So a tough tight game is in store for Saturday and it could only take one moment of magic to win this tussle. As with every game this week you have to grapple with the conundrum of whether it is better to come in fresh, as all the home teams are, or whether the momentum provided by victory on wild card weekend will provide a winning impetus.

Going back to that earlier clash, the Ravens outgained the Titans 285-210, and held a 34:28-25:32 edge in possession time. Baltimore have a look of last year's wild card wonders the NY Giants about them and can prevail on Saturday, especially as the Titans have doubts about key individuals on both offensive and defensive lines.

Recommendation: Six road wins this year becomes seven on Sunday - tight and tough so take the Ravens with the points (+3.5) at 1.78 and get low on those points at under 35.5 at [1.94].


Arizona Cardinals (9-7) at Carolina Panthers (12-4)
After dismissing the Cardinals last week, they were annoyingly the only team to break a clean sweep on the punting front on wild-card weekend.

This game will be a huge contrast of styles. The Panthers, with the hottest back in the NFL, DeAngelo Williams, will look to establish the run while the Cards will play their usual passing game, using their more than useful receiving corps.

However, they did seek to establish the run much more last week and I would expect a similar scenario this weekend from the Cards, with Edgerrin James coming to the fore.

The last meeting of these two teams went the Panthers way 27-23 and that highlighted some of the Cardinals problems this season - namely, an 0-5 record when travelling east and a lack of ability when running the ball, Kurt Warner attempted 51 passes in that first match-up. True that was one of the better road trips for the Cardinals, but the bottom line is that they conceded 100 points more than they scored on those five trips east and the Panthers are 8-0 at home this season.

The Panthers may be known primarily as a running team but they do have two excellent receivers in go-to guy Steve Smith and Mushin Mohammed and if QB Jake Delhomme can find these two he will damage the Cardinals in the secondary.

If the Panthers play the field-position game, have long drives and score like they have over the last eight weeks (30 points per game), they will win. When it comes to winning close games, the Panthers are experts. They are 8-1 in games decided by one score.

The Cardinals will make this a very exciting game, but a second play-off win - on the road, on a Saturday night, against a strong Panthers - is too much to ask. Carolina got nine hits on Warner the last time, producing two sacks, two forced fumbles, an interception and three tackles for a loss, and it looks like more of the same will happen this time around.

Recommendation: Double digit handicaps are hard to overcome but the box-fresh Panthers can, back them (-10.5) at 2.2, and in the most open weekend game take over 48.5 match points if you can get [2.0].