NFL / Andy Richmond / 03 January 2009 / Leave a comment

The wild card round on Saturday brings the potential for two high scoring offensive shoot outs - Sunday brings a complete contrast where defence may well hold sway but it's the road teams once again who enter the fray as favourites, says Andy Richmond.

Baltimore (11-5) at Miami (11-5)

Two teams with feel good stories step up to the plate here - the comeback kings of the season are Miami. From 1-15 last year they have rebounded this year to a divisional title and an 11-5 record under the tutelage of Bill Parcells and rookie head coach Tony Sparano - quite remarkable.

This is the Dolphins first play-off appearance since 2001, when in the wild card round they hosted ironically the Ravens who triumphed 20-3, most names and faces have moved on from that clash but Baltimore still display their trademark dominating defence, with linebacker Ray Lewis the heart and soul.

These two have already met this season and that was a game that gave the Ravens momentum - snapping a three game losing streak and propelling them to a run which saw them win nine of their last eleven games. It was also the game that changed rookie QB Joe Flacco's season, he had thrown one TD pass and seven interceptions in his first five games, but tossed 13 scoring passes and just five picks the rest of the way.

Apart from the dominating defence, the Ravens also have a nicely balanced offense with Flacco's arm providing a deep threat and a good one-two running punch from backs Le'Ron McClain and Willis McGahee.

The Ravens' defence will be a daunting task for Miami to solve, having allowed the third-fewest points in the league and not allowing an opposing running back to rush for 100 yards in 35 consecutive games. If the Dolphins are to solve the problem it certainly won't be via the much vaunted "Wildcat" package, which basically involves RB Ronnie Brown taking shotgun snaps from centre and running - that package expanded as the season progressed.

But Miami had little success using the system when the teams met in October; they tried three plays using the "Cat" and got four yards, so it will be interesting to see what tactics the Dolphins employ, my guess would be that they will rely more on QB Chad Pennington to carry the offense using a short passing, ball control offense especially as the Ravens have a dominating and suffocating run defence.

Another fascinating duel awaits, and we'll certainly see a variation of styles - I just wonder how much emotionally the Dolphins were drained by last week's win over the Jets and Baltimore look like they have the mental toughness required to win anywhere.

Recommendation: Ravens to repeat the week six win and end the Flipper fairytale - back the Ravens -3.5 at [2.08].

Philadelphia (9-6-1) at Minnesota (10-6)

The final week of the season saw these two squeeze into the post season - the Eagles especially needed a complicated set of results and got them to extend their up and down season, the game features two of the best running backs in the NFL - Peterson for the Vikes and Westbrook in the Eagles camp.

It also features two very strong defences and two quarterbacks who have both been benched this year before bouncing back in recent weeks to guide their teams into this game.

The Eagles are first and foremost a pass orientated team but they run the ball effectively to complement the passing game. They are a very effective unit and that will be vital on Sunday.

Can they establish the running game against the number one ranked rushing defence of the Viking? The answer to that question will be covered ostensibly by the fitness of nose tackle Pat Williams who if he does miss this game will hand the Eagles a huge chance to establish their ground game and provide a base for QB Donovan McNabb to find his two game breaking targets - Westbrook and DeSean Jackson, McNabb should have time to find them both as the Vikings concentrate on run stuffing and not blitzing and pressuring the quarterback.

Adrian Peterson has almost on his own rushed the Vikings into this position, his 1,760 yards a incredible output in his second season, but in the Eagles defence he will meet a unit which execute all facets of this discipline well.

Most notably they love to blitz and pressure a quarterback and in Tavaris Jackson, Minnesota have a quarterback who is slowly finding his feet again after early season mistakes. He still has good weapons as his disposal in WR Bernard Berrian and TE Visanthe Shiancoe and of course his safety valve in Peterson.

However, I still feel he is inexperienced and he'll make one or two mistakes which will cost the Vikings the game. This will be tactical and tough but I expect the Eagles to keep that Metrodome play-off record intact.

Recommendation: Not sure how they got here, but now they are back the Eagles to keep on going - Eagles match odds at [1.7] is the call and back under 42.5 match points at [1.84] in this close contest.