Poor pitcher could offer Rox a way back in...

MLB / Mike Robb / 26 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

Betfair's baseball guru Mike Robb says Rockies must win on Saturday to keep the series alive

If Clint Hurdle's side are to have any chance of reeling back the 2-0 Red Sox lead then they must win game three on Saturday: simple as that, black and white, no questions asked. Were the Sox to go 3-0 ahead then they have the experience, nerve, ability and form to tell even the most primitive baseball follower that the coveted title will be heading back to Fenway for the second time in four years.

As has been well documented, the Rockies came into this World Series on the back of a remarkable 21 wins in 22 games. However, this could be prove to be one of the major problems in turning things around - the Denver side need to remember how to react to losing and follow the old cliché of taking it one game at a time. After the opening two games of this year's showpiece they find themselves in the unfamiliar position of needing to fight back to ensure that their extraordinary run was not accomplished in vein.

Games one and two saw vintage pitching performances from Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling at Fenway, but a question mark hangs over the form and confidence of Sox game three starter Daisuke Matsuzaka. Overall he is three wins and four losses from his last seven starts but, most notably, he has not thrown a winning game on the road since August 4th at Seattle. Furthermore, the Japanese pitcher lacks any experience on this stage and, as I argued with Beckett and Schilling in games one and two, this can make all the difference. Matsuzaka's season-long record to date is 15 wins for 12 losses with an ERA of 5.93.

In contrast, the Rockies have a starter in Josh Fogg who has had the best post-season form of all Rox pitchers this year with five wins and two defeats in his last seven games and an ERA of 4.63. Fogg has the advantage of six years' experience over his opponent and with home field advantage he is in a good position to repeat the previous occasion he faced the Sox when the men from the mile-high city left Boston with a 12-2 victory.

All in all this is undoubtedly the biggest weekend in the history of the Denver franchise. The Rockies must win to stay in with a chance of completing their miraculous rise that took shape just under two months ago, and they will. Home field advantage and a partisan crowd at Coors Field coupled with on-form pitcher Fogg against a more than vulnerable Matsuzaka leads me to expect the Rox to rekindle hopes of an October, or should I say Rocktober, fairytale. Back the Rockies to take game three at 2.3.

Game three of the World Series is on Saturday night in Denver