But they are also coming off a barren spell that has seen them barely bother to qualify for the post-season in recent years, let alone win anything, and also seem to have transformed themselves into a vast corporate support structure for Kobe Bryant's towering ego. To show his gratitude, Bryant seemed to be angling for a trade before the season started, but somehow the Laker management has built a team around him which he deems acceptable, helped no end by the Spaniard Pau Gasol. That team has been good enough to end the regular season with the best record in the Western Conference, and while other teams in the play-offs are showing signs of wilting, the Lakers feel like they are on a roll. For all their look-at-us swagger, however, The Contrarian doesn't believe they are going to win it this year, in spite of being a [2.82] favourite on Betfair. Here's why:

They look better than they are

One of the reasons the Lakers look good this year is because they've been so dreadful in the last five seasons, yet their record during the regular season (W57, L25) is only third best in the league and hardly outstanding. Only once in the last 12 years has a team from the Western Conference won the championship after losing 25 or more games in the regular season.

The percentage game

On five of the last six occasions that the Lakers have won the championship, their winning record over the regular season has been greater than 70%. This season they fell just short at 69.5%; close, but the last time they finished the regular season with a 69.5% winning record, in 1988-89, they lost the NBA Finals.

Kobe won the regular season MVP award - so what?

The Lakers have struggled since Shaquille O'Neal flounced in 2004, fed up at what he perceived as preferential treatment towards his teammate and rival in egomania, Bryant. This season Kobe has got his act together enough to win the regular season MVP award, which may not be the good omen it seems: the regular season MVP has failed to win the championship in each of the last four years, and has only won it once in the last seven.

They give up too many offensive rebounds

In the play-offs, when every possession counts, that can be a big problem. Lesser teams like the Nuggets or Jazz are not best equipped to turn those rebounds into points, but a team like the Hornets who the Lakers will probably have to overcome in the Conference final to progress, have the players (Chandler, West) to take full advantage of that weakness.

Defence wins championships...

...and the Lakers are absolutely NOT a top defensive team. They are weak against the 3-pointer and their interior defence is leaky. If they make the final, someone from the East will come out with a game plan of pure physical intimidation. Both the Celtics and Detroit can play killer defence when they want. The Lakers have lost both of their games against Boston this season, and 11 of their last 14 games against Detroit, including a crushing series defeat in the 2004 Finals.

LeBron is better than Kobe

If by some fluke neither the Celtics or the Pistons make the final, the next most likely candidate from the East is Cleveland, whose franchise player LeBron James has dominated Kobe in the few times they've met up this year, particularly on defence. If there is one guy in the league who can stop Kobe, Lebron has pretty much proven he is it.

They're overconfident

Successful teams need occasional reminders of what it is like to lose. None of the last six NBA Finals winners have gone undefeated in the final four games of the regular season, as the Lakers did this season. Similarly, in the last six years no team that has won their first round match 4-0 has gone on to win the championship.

Brandon Rush recaptured his hot hands and scored 25 points and had seven rebounds in this remarkable game. Kansas were trading as low as [1.03] in the first half as, for once, Tyler Hansbrough was smothered by one of the best defensive displays I have seen. Kansas used up a great deal of energy in the first half in a attempt to deliver a knockout blow to North Carolina with superb transition play and high percentage scoring. By half-time both teams looked exhausted as they staggered off the court to thunderous applause.

At the start of the second half a beautiful back-door pass to open the scoring sent a message to the Tar Heels that Kansas were ready to continue to turn the screw and finish them off but North Carolina had other ideas and slowly began to eat into the lead. The comeback was inevtiably led by that man Hansbrough and the very talented Wayne Ellington. With nine minutes left the Tar Heels had reduced the deficit to just five points and Kansas looked to be wilting under the pressure. At that point North Carolina briefly traded as [1.98] favourites but the Jayhawks fought them off and Sasha Kuan came off the bench to be very effective late on taking the final score to 84-66 in this great game.

In the other semi-final the Memphis Tigers were very impressive in beating UCLA in a very entertaining contest. UCLA did very well to go into the break trailing by just three points as Derrick Rose was in unstoppable form with 25 points and nine rebounds. NBA scouts must have been on hand to see this artist at work and we will have to wait and see if he enters the draft.
Chris Douglas-Roberts also had a huge game with 25 points but even with Joey Dorsey not scoring a single point the Tigers had too many guns for UCLA. Kevin Love of the Bruins had a very poor game by his standards and could only manage 12 points. Memphis traded at odds-on throughout the whole match finally winning 78-63.

The championship game takes place tonight between Kansas and Memphis in what promises to be a thrilling encounter. As previously reported, Kansas were my pick to win the tournament but my money's not in the bank yet and this promises to be a very close affair. I think that Kansas have a more balanced team and players like Chalmers and Collins are able to take the point to give the team more flexibility. In addition everyone is able to shoot the ball and the scoring is evenly distributed.

If Kansas are able to contain Derrick Rose and that is a very big if then that could be the difference between victory and defeat. Chris Douglas Roberts the man they call "CDR" is another player along with Rose who will be a major threat to the Jayhawks.

At present Kansas are trading at [2.14] on the exchange and I think this is the value play. As for the total points market I do not think it will be a very high scoring affair so I will be backing the under 145.5 pts market.

I think that the two best teams are left to decide the championship game and it promises to be a great match. I have enjoyed the last three weeks of this wonderful game and each match has been played with respect and dignity for the sport and each university. Behaviour and sportsmanship has been impeccable and every player involved should be proud. Some of these athletes will go forward to the NBA but many will pursue other careers. I wish them well and thank them for providing such great basketball played in the NCAA spirit and may the best team win on Monday night.

It certainly did not look that way deep in to the second half for the Kansas Jayhawks who had to fight off a resilient Davidson all the way to the end of a low scoring but pulsating encounter.

Kansas led by just two points with only six seconds left. Davidson had a chance to tie the game or win with a three point attempt but Stephen Curry declined the shot and passed the ball out to Jason Richards who fired a low percentage shot that missed and sent the Jayhawks to the final four ... much to my relief!

I think had Curry taken it to the hoop he would have sent the game into overtime and I think he will remember that ill-advised pass for a while. Curry can hold his head high though because he put up big numbers with 25 points scored on the night.

As for Kansas I think they can count themselves lucky to go through and if it wasn't for Sasha Kuan scoring some huge points inside late in the game I think they would have been eliminated.
Kansas will have to face the mighty North Carolina Tar Heels in the semi-final on Saturday after they beat Louisville 83-73 in another fantastic encounter between two great teams.

North Carolina had a 12-point lead at half-time and looked in control but Louisville coach Rick Pitino instilled much-needed belief in his players at the break and they came roaring back to tie the game in the middle of the second half. So, for the first time in the tournament, the Tar Heels looked in real trouble but there was one person who had more than enough up his sleeve to decide the game when it really mattered - of course it was that man Tyler Hansbrough. He demanded the ball and proceeded to make three crucial shots from 15 to 18 feet and with Ty Lawson making a huge three point shot the game was over in a instant.

Hansbrough spent his rest day shooting 500 buckets on his own because this is who he is. As many have said what he lacks in ability he makes up for in pure determination. His coach Roy Williams said: "He is the most driven, focused player I have ever seen in my life".

UCLA booked a semi-final place for the weekend with a thrashing of Xavier 76-57 in the best performance if have seen from then in this tournament. With Kevin Love scoring 19 points and 10 rebounds he was deservedly named as the most outstanding player of the West Regional. The game was over at half-time and they coasted the rest of the way. Solid defensive play was the reason for this huge effort.

Memphis handed out a severe lesson to Texas 85-67 with freshman Derrick Rose particularly outstanding, scoring nine points and throwing in a steal and a block for good measure.

So the stage is set for the two semi-finals. Memphis take on UCLA in San Antonio on Saturday in what looks to be a very closely matched affair. I would just favour Memphis to take this and I will be backing them for the win. There are plenty of markets available and I like Chris Douglas-Roberts to outscore Kevin Love in that market. Memphis really impressed me against Texas but UCLA will be no walkover.

In the other semi-final I do not think that North Carolina will lose to Kansas. Kansas did not impress me with their perimeter game and Hansbrough looks so dangerous in the post area. I will also take him in the points total against Brandon Rush.

I am delighted that the 4 no 1 seeds have made it to the Final Four and I really can't think of a better way to spend Saturday night watching both of these great games. I hope you enjoy both games and I will give you my final thoughts before the championship game on Monday night.

On Friday night Wisconsin succumbed to the Cinderella team of the tournament - Davidson, who caused a major upset when beating the Badgers 73-56 in a one sided affair. Davidson will meet my selection to win the competition, the Kansas Jayhawks, who have sailed in to the last eight after crushing Portland State in the first round and beating Villanova 72-57 late on Friday night.

Tyler Hansbrough and North Carolina have demolished the opposition on road to the last eight so far with the best basketball I have seen in the whole tournament and I must say at the moment they look unbeatable.Hansbrough is a low post threat at all times and a combination of easy buckets for him on a one-on-one basis has been a huge factor down in that area. This team can play a half-court game or transition and with that man Hansbrough, Louisville will have their hands full when they meet Saturday night after they crushed Washington State 68-47.

Louisville will feel that they match up well and they disposed of a very talented Tennessee team 79-60 to join the final eight. My money will be on North Carolina and I think they will win this very competitive affair. I am hoping to take around [1.5] on North Carolina, which is a realistic price.


UCLA, who have looked vulnerable, are another team to progress after beating Western Kentucky 88-78 in a game that saw a great comeback from Kentucky after being 21 points down at the half. They will meet Xavier on Saturday night after a fantastic overtime win over West Virginia..UCLA are doing just enough to win and are slowly improving, which is a huge factor to win this event.

Memphis finally showed why they are so highly ranked after putting on a really powerful display to thrash the Michigan State Spartans 92-74 .Memphis were an amazing 30 points up at half time and they could afford to conserve valuable energy for their clash against Texas by taking it easy in the second half.

Texas booked a place in the last eight with a convincing display against Stanford, beating them 82-62.The Texas Longhorns very nearly went out of the tournament in the previous round to Miami but prevailed 75-72.

Saturday's Matches

Xavier v UCLA Selection UCLA

Louisville v North Carolina Selection North Carolina

Sunday's Matches

Davidson v Kansas Selection Kansas

Texas v Memphis Selection Memphis


Enjoy the basketball this weekend and I will be back with my Final Four in depth preview next week.

Saying that, I think the Dodgers should win this Division. The LA side have young talent in abundance and strength in depth in every department, so they should be able to cope with injuries better than most. If Matt Kemp and James Loney perform as we know they can then who is to say the Dodgers can't be the NL's underdog? You can get [2.88] on them winning the Division, [6.0] for the NL Pennant and a huge [29.0] if you think they can win the World Series.

Then we have last year's surprise package, the Colorado Rockies. They have undoubted talent in the likes of Holliday, Tulowitzki and Atkins, while Jeff Francis had a great year pitching. The big question mark is whether or not they have the depth to come through again? I think it could well be a case of one season wonders for this Rockies team and they will finish second in the Division, but missing out on the wild card to the Phillies. They are [4.3] to beat the Dodgers to top spot.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have added Dan Haren from Oakland to give them a bigger bite on defence. The offence does not look good enough to take them anything more than second this year, however, even though the Betfair market currently makes them second favourites at [3.0]. At that price they are definitely worth laying.

It looks a similar story for the San Diego Padres with a weak offence set to let them down. There's no doubting they have solid starting pitching in Jake Peavy, Greg Maddux and Chris Young but I cannot see where the runs are going to come from to make them a real force this year. The addition of Jim Edmonds could be a fantastic move if stays fit - I was sad to see him leave the Cards. They are [4.3] for the Division and, again, worth opposing at that price.

Like the Padres, the San Francisco Giants are lacking in firepower. A good starting pitching roster is one thing but without offence teams cannot win, simple as that, and the loss of Barry Bonds is key. Will anyone in the line-up come thorough and hit 15+ home runs? I can't see it and this will be their downfall, as represented by the huge odds of [21.0] for them to win the Division and [170.0] the World Series. I wouldn't touch either.

There are too many question marks hanging over the Milwaukee Brewers to make [3.25] a price worth considering. Will they have enough pitching? Can Ben Sheet do the business and lead the team on defence? [3.25] is worth a lay - they do not have enough to challenge the Cubs and I can even see them finishing third.

Sadly the St. Louis Cardinals are no longer the team they used to be. It's all about Albert Pujols, but do they have enough quality through the rest of the line-up to be a serious force this year? Pujols is undoubtedly a man everyone would want in their team, but I am wary that there will be too much pressure on him to carry the rest of the side this year. As a Cardinals fan I am somewhat biased and so have hope in my hear that we can at least challenge for the runner-up spot and a shot at the wild card again. But speaking with the head this time I just can't see it happening and they are rightly priced at [8.8] for the Division. Saying that, there is no doubt I'll be having my usual passionate and totally unjustifiable tenner on the Cards to win the World Series at [70.0]!

The Cincinnati Reds could be a surprise contender. The Reds have good young talent ready to shine, while Aaron Harang is a very solid starter and Francisco Cordero a decent closer. At [8.4] they are a great price to win the Division if you think the Cubs and Brewers could slip up, and with a good start and some good fortune early on that price should shorten.

The Astros have a decent offence but the pitching just does not look strong enough to make a serious impact on the Division. You should be looking to lay them at [8.4] if you've got the bankroll, while [42.0] for the World Series seems another horrifically short price.

Pittsburgh Pirates fans cannot be looking forward to this year. To cut to the chase, they haven't got a chance and are weak all over the park. [34.0] to win the Division is a lay if you're one who dabbles in laying big prices. It just will not happen - fact.

This year is no different. On the face of it, only the New York Mets looks near-certainties for a post-season foray but after that it's harder to call.

So... Where's your money?

The Mets should easily win the Eastern Division and so [1.64] might be worth it. The better bet is the Dodgers to win in the West at [2.88], a price I believe represents decent value. As an outside bet the Cincinatti Reds ([8.4]) to win in the Central are worth a small wager while looking to lay the bet off if they start well and keep pace with the Cubs and Brewers.

Below we start by looking in detail at the Eastern Division and two further articles will focus on the Central and West.

NL East
The Mets should take the Eastern Division in relative comfort and are rightly favourites in the Betfair market at [1.64]. Bringing in Johan Santana from the Twins is a major acquisition on the pitching front and we should see uplift among the rest of the bull pen as a result.

The Phillies should finish second and are my pick to get the wild card. On the downside, the injury to Brad Lidge is a concern and much could depend on how long he is out for. Jimmy Rollins in the infield and Shane Victorino in the out will both be key in offence and the Phillies need them to fire this year. Although I can't see it happening, [4.0] is not a bad price if you think they can topple the Mets.

The problem for the Atlanta Braves is can they hit enough runs? I do not doubt their defence but at [4.5] they just do not tempt me. This should be a mediocre season and anything more (or less) than third would be a surprise.

WHO? Nationals move to the new Nationals Park for the first time and look to improve on last season's fourth place finish. Unfortunately I cannot see the team living up to their new surroundings as they appear to be in a two-way battle for last place. They should have enough to finish fourth, but are not worth touching at [21.0] to win the Division.

Florida Marlins fans must be desperately disappointed ahead of the new season. Losing Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit will hit them hard and will no doubt be felt throughout the side. They finished last in the Division in 2007 and it should be the same again this time round, so [34.0] should not look at all appealing unless you have roots are in the Orange State.

There are a total of 327 teams in Division 1 but only 65 are invited to the tournament each year. I know the numbers do not add up but Mount St Mary's beat Coppin State on Tuesday to make it a round 64 for the start on Thursday. The teams for the tournament are chosen by a selection committee which is made up of select university athletic directors and conference commissioners.

There are 31 teams who automatically qualify because they have won their respective conference. Thirty of these teams win their tournament through conference tournaments. There is one league that believes that it is above holding a tournament to qualify and that is none other than the Ivy League. This year Cornell - one of 12 teams trading at [1000.0] to win - is the representative for the Ivy League and will no doubt be thrashed by Stanford in the first round on Thursday.

The remaining 34 invitees are left in the hands of the selection committee. Believe it or not the committee is locked up in a hotel to debate who is in and who is out and every year teams that do not make it are very vocal in their displeasure at being left out of this historic tournament. The announcement is made on the Sunday before the tournament and this day is referred to as Selection Sunday.

The NCAA have kindly provided free live coverage for everyone who registers at www.ncaa.com Just follow the link to March Madness On Demand and you will be directed to the easy steps to obtain your free pass.

* * *

Now on to the tournament and the teams that I think will go deep in the competition. North Carolina ([5.3]) are the favourites to win and in Tyler Hansbrough they have a player who will ensure they'll go a very long way indeed. This forward has put up some huge numbers this season and his hunger for success will ensure that they will be very tough to beat. Hansbrough has had his jersey retired by the university and this honour has only been granted to seven other players in its history. To put this in to perspective Michael Jordan is on this very elite list.

North Carolina take on Mount St Mary's on Friday and I think [1.01] is a big price in this game.

Another name to look out for is Michael Beasley who plays for Kansas State University and in my view this is the best college basketball player in America. Beasley and Bill Walker will give USC plenty to think about in a mouth watering first round clash. USC are deserving favourites but at [2.34] my money will be on Kansas State on Thursday. This game starts at 11.10 pm UK time and I assure you it will be worth staying up for.

The team that I think will win the whole event is the Kansas Jayhawks. Currently they are [6.0] on the exchange and after they slaughter Portland State on Thursday they could shorten even more. They have a balanced team with some very talented players like Mario Chalmers and Darrell Aurther and if you leave Brandon Rush alone from the three point circle he will simply destroy you. In addition they have a great coach in Bill Self.

Duke University are lively outsiders in the competition and have been matched at around [21.0] on the exchange. Mike Krzyzewski is one of the finest coaches in college basketball and he knows what it takes to win a championship. His team may lack the depth of his bitter rivals North Carolina but they are a well-run unit and may well make it to the final eight or even beyond.

On the exchange we will be offering in-play markets on every game in the NCAA tournament as well as outright and handicap markets.

In England Soccer is referred to as the beautiful game by many. In the United States basketball certainly lives up to that name and the NCAA tournament has all the excitement and drama that you could ever wish for. Every game is sold out and the atmosphere in the arenas around the country is electric.

I will be writing updates to the competition as it progresses and I hope everyone enjoys the tournament which begins on Thursday. Good luck to everyone and I would recommend you stay up late in to the night to watch the action on Thursday, there's no horse racing on Friday so why not?!

The LA Angels are the hot pre-season favourites at [1.4] to win out West. They have added Jon Garland, though losing Orlando Cabrera the other way, and the defence remains strong. At [1.4], however, I think the LA side are too short and worth taking on, as is the [7.0] in the American League outright market.

The rest of the Division looks poor. Oakland have brought in a lot of young players and if there are some unexpected surprises in there then you never know. They should finish third, however, and are [14.0] to back them for the AL West.

The Texas Rangers have once again failed to put together a strong enough pitching roster to give me any reason to think they will do anything different to last year - last place in the AL West. Saying that, the Betfair market currently makes the Rangers third favourites at ([10.0]) ahead of Oakland, so it is up to you to decide which of these teams will be the least bad in 2008.

The Indian's opposition is far tougher than last year and the Detroit Tigers are justifiably favourites in this Division at [2.0]. The biggest trade in MLB this year has seen Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera move to the Detroit side from Miami, raising a few eyebrows in the process, while they also added Edgar Renteria to bolster the infield.

The Tigers have one of the best (if not THE best) teams in the MLB on paper - if their individuals play to their capabilities then the Tigers are looking at an exciting and potentially very successful 2008. With names like Pudge Rodriguez - another member of the Marlins 2003 World Series winning team - already on the team sheet, Tigers fans must be pinching themselves in anticipation. You can back the Tigers at [5.0] to win the AL Pennant or a tempting [8.6] to win the World Series.

The Central Division should be a two-horse race with the White Sox ([5.0]), Royals ([11.0]) and Twins ([13.0]) battling it out for best-of-the-rest. There's no doubt that there is some real talent in the Twins' line-up, but while the Indians and Tigers are strengthening, the Minnesota side have lost star pitcher Johan Santana to the Mets, a loss that should not be underplayed. A third place finish would be a good result, and something I expect them to achieve.

Similarly, the White Sox have lost two starting pitchers in exchange for hot prospects, while the Kansas City Royals lost just shy of 100 games last year and they have done nothing in the off-season to inspire any confidence that 2008 will be much different.

The real interest in the AL this year will be the race for the Wild Card, which should be between the Yankees and Indians, and either is more than capable of taking the last post-season spot.

So... Where's your money?

I am so excited about the Tigers that the [5.0] to back them to win the American League outright ahead of the Red Sox tempts me. I certainly cannot see them failing to win their division, with only the Indians to contend with, and anything around evens will see me leaping in that general direction.

The next three articles will seek to justify these claims and give you a general view of what lies in store for 2008. We start with the AL East...

AL East

This Division is easily the most recognisable to most people as it contains the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, arguably the two most renowned teams in the world. The script is set to follow this reputation for the 2008 regular season as this pair will almost certainly finish in the top two spots.

Josh Beckett can be the difference again for the Sox following a great season last time round that culminated in a record-breaking first innings in the World Series. The Bostonians have experience in abundance, though the loss of Curt Schilling could be significant. It is no great surprise that they go in as pre-season favourites not only for the Division ([1.77]) but also the AL overall ([3.7]) and the World Series itself, currently at [5.9].

The Yankees are relying on younger players who do not yet have the experience to say with any real certainty how they will get on. That does not necessarily mean they can't go on to win the division - don't forget the class they do have, Alex Rodriguez (A-Rod) for one - it just means that it's harder to predict exactly how they will do. The safer bet, therefore, is on the Red Sox. Nevertheless, you can back the Yankees at [4.0] to take the American League and at [8.2] to win the World Series.

The team that could prove a surprise in this Division are the Toronto Blue Jays. A young and improving team has been strengthened by David Eckstein and Scott Rolen who will bolster the infield and provide some much needed experience as well as some added punch with the bat. Halladay and Burnett are both pitchers with promise and if the Jays manage to keep key players clear of injures then they should at least be able to keep up with the big two, if not actually supplant one of them from the top spots. If you fancy the Blue Jays to win the AL Pennant you can get [21.0] and this may be a decent investment - if they manage to challenge the Eastern Division (and you can get [7.0] if you think they'll win that) then you will almost certainly get the chance to lay the bet off.

The Tampa Bay Rays should struggle, but it is the Orioles who have the most to fear and finishing anything above last place would have to go down as a successful season in Baltimore. The Rays are currently [13.5] and Orioles [12.5] to win the Division, with [40.0] and [50.0] respectively for them to win the AL overall and big three figure prices available if you think they can win the World Series. These prices are big for a reason folks, steer clear.

In the aftermath of their final scoring drive the Patriots - so close to perfection - were matched at a low of [1.12].

The big gamble on Tom Brady to win the coveted MVP award didn't come off - the Patriots' quarterback was matched at just [1.6] before the match but it was the Giants' QB Eli Manning, matched at [12.5], who walked off with the honours.

The Giants to be trailing at half-time and to win at full-time was matched at [27.0].

What other leagues are there?
The NHL is widely regarded as the biggest league in the world. However, Betfair offers 15 other leagues from 12 countries around the world to bet on, from the Czech Republic ELH to the Russian Superliga, and not to forget the UK's Elite League. As a result there is seldom a shortage of games to bet on.

The Game
Apart from the fact that you need ice, skates, sticks and a puck (the little rubber black disk that acts as hockey's football), the basics of the game are relatively easy to get your head round.

Each game consists of three 20-minute periods and if the game is tied at the end of these a period of sudden-death overtime is played. If the game remains tied after overtime then a penalty shootout takes place, and so ties are not possible in the regular season of the NHL.

One thing that often frightens people is the speed at which the game is played. This is true of the action on the ice itself, but also things like how quickly line changes occur. It is very different to anything we are used to over here and so offers a welcome change. It can be quite daunting at first but after watching a couple of games you will start to get used to it though, so persevere.

Some of the rules are tricky to understand initially, but the NHL site offers good explanations of it all: www.nhl.com/rules/index.html. The illustration videos are particularly helpful in understanding offside, icing, two-line pass and the ins-and-outs of power plays.

What can you bet on?

• The Money Line: who will win the game? The money line covers the game as a whole, including overtime and any penalty shootouts if it is a tie at the end of normal time.

• Regular Time Match Odds: regular-time match odds is the same as a standard match odds market in soccer, for example. You can back or lay either team to win as well as the tie.

• Regular Time Goals: how many goals will be scored in total during the three regular time periods of the game? On Betfair this is always under or over 5.5 goals with unders almost always the odds-on favourite, though this is not always the case in a game such as a local derby or those with a heated history.

• Handicaps: the handicap on Betfair is usually +1.5 goals to the side deemed weakest. Important things to consider when betting on this market include home advantage, starting line-ups (are there any star players injured or being rested?), how tired or fresh each team is, and form. It is often possible to back teams to beat the handicap if you correctly analyse all these features from both teams' perspectives.

• Long-term markets: Betfair has markets for the Stanley Cup winner as well as the Eastern and Western Conference winners. As is always the case the outright winner year-on-year is extremely difficult to call but these markets are good if you back a team you think will do well at a big price and then lay the bet later in the season.

In-Play Betting

• Don't overreact: top teams can often pull back seemingly large deficits fairly quickly, so if they go two goals down early in the match it's not the end of the world. Conversely, if you know a team has just had one of those 'nightmare starts', the backing a strong team to win from two goals down can offer extremely attractive odds.

• Information sources: be wary of where you are getting your score updates, timings and other in play data from. If you are working off data on a website, such as NHL.com or ESPN.com, for example, you can be sure that someone is watching the game live and with a faster source of information than you. This need not be a big deal - just be careful leaving up bets for too long, especially in the closing stages of a game where late goals can make all the difference.

• This game is QUICK: as was touched on earlier, this game really is fast. The old saying "blink and you'll miss it" really does apply here. This, however, is a positive in that ice hockey offers a really dynamic and volatile betting platform from which the savvy punter can take advantage. This being so, the previous point about information sources is especially important, but that aside if you can see a goal coming or a penalty being given, resulting in a power play, then you can pre-empt the market and trade yourself some profit.

Other important points/tips

• Schedule: make sure you have a look at the fixtures to see whether or not one of the teams is playing consecutive nights, how far they've been travelling, time zone issues, etc. Sometimes teams play two or more long road trips back-to-back and this should automatically make you weary of their chances.

• All winning (and losing) streaks must come to an end: although this is true of any sport, it is especially true of ice hockey. Form tends to be much more erratic in the NHL, even amongst the top placed teams. If you think one team has better players and, therefore, a better chance of winning than the other, do not necessarily let the form book put you off. It is often attractive to back the teams whose prices are higher than they should be on account of bad form.

• The clock stops when the puck is not in play: this is a simple but enormously important point to remember. Unlike in soccer, for example, when the clock keeps going when there is a break in play, the clock in ice hockey is stopped. Thankfully this is easy to get your head round just by watching the clock on the TV, but it might take you a few games to get used to.

Useful links:
www.nhl.com - the best site for news, results, fixtures, rules and generally everything you could need to keep in touch with goings-on in the NHL

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl

http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/nhl/index

http://www.eurohockey.net/ - worth visiting if you are betting on European leagues. Not a pretty site but has good information and links to the sites for each national league

The Patriots and the Giants go head to head in what promises to be a cracking end to the season. There are lots of subplots in the build up to the game and if you can get to the bottom of them then it can only help you. Is Brady fit? Will the pressure of potentially making history by going 19-0 get to the Pats? Is Manning up to the job?

The Patriots have the pedigree and are clear favourites to take the Superbowl crown for the fourth time in seven years. They are better offensively, have the edge defensively and even have superiority on special teams. Not to mention that the Patriots are also unbeaten this season and beat the Giants in their only regular season clash.

That said, are the Patriots just a little too short in the market? For me the answer has to be yes and the your first bet of Superbowl XLII is to lay New England Patriots at anything around [1.22] in the Match Odds market. I expect it to be a tense and slightly conservative opening to the game as two teams with totally different attributes feel each other out. There won't be many points scored early on and there will be plenty of opportunities to trade out of your bet.

When trading on American Football it is key to have confidence in your knowledge of how a market will turn on any one given play. This comes over a period of time but the basics revolve around the scoring plays. The market will often overreact to an anticipated touchdown to such a degree that the odds will often not come in much at all when they do get the TD. Lay a team when they are in the red zone and you will not go far wrong.

There are a plethora of markets available for the Superbowl and with that comes opportunity. Brady will play and it is no secret that the Patriots are essentially a passing side so you have to check out the Brady Pass Yards market. The line is 305.5 yards and I am confident that Brady will surpass that. He has a wealth of top quality receivers to aim for and you can be sure he will pick them out with monotonous regularity. Get on Over 305.5 Yards as early as possible as it will only get shorter as KO approaches.

In a strange way it was the defeat to the Patriots in Week 17 that set the Giants up for the play-offs. They had New England down deep in the fourth quarter and will have taken great confidence in pushing them so close. They will take this into the big one on Sunday and you can expect them to stay within the 12.5pts handicap. The Giants with the start are currently [1.96] and that stands as the must bet of the match.

The final suggestion concerns the performance of Patriots star wide receiver Randy Moss. He has been strangely quiet in the play-offs whilst his team-mates have grabbed the glory. I would put this down to the Patriots using him as a decoy and with a plan to put doubt in the mind of the opposition. I am sure that in the pressure cooker of the Superbowl Moss will be the Patriots go to man and I fully expect him to receive close to 100 yards. The line is 75.5 yards and you should be left with no doubt that the only bet is a back of the Over 75.5 yards.

Some golden rules to follow are - don't get suckered in by anticipated touchdowns; early field goals really count for very little and will not alter the odds dramatically; and never never forget the importance of a turnover as the effect on the market will be dramatic and you need to be ready to react.

All that is left to do now is sit back and enjoy the show - you've got to love Superbowl night!

The Giants enter the arena in Glendale, Arizona on Sunday as 12.5 point underdogs - the biggest "dog" since the Pats themselves were 14.5 point "dog" in Superbowl XXXVI when they upset the odds to beat St Louis 20-17 with a 48 yard field goal as time expired.

Well that game could set a precedent as we reverse the roles here. That Pats team of six years ago reminds me a great deal of the Giants who enter here with very little to lose and full of confidence after a record breaking 10 wins on the road. Indeed their only away defeat was to the Patriots in week 17 by a slim three points in a game that was pivotal in providing that play-off momentum and belief that has taken them to Arizona on Sunday.

Pressure of course is nothing new to the Patriots, it's been mounting on them all year and they appear to handle it better and better - even thriving on it. They may have cooled a touch in recent weeks but they still have a enormous variety of weapons to get the job done as they step towards perfection.

So what are the keys for each side to accomplish their goal? These areas will be vital on Sunday in the quest for victory in Superbowl XLII.

The Giants must...

Pressure Brady: In all the games in which the Patriots have been pushed to the limit this year, their opponents have consistently pressured Brady - not necessarily sacking him but hurrying him and cutting down his decision-making time. The Giants lead the league in sack percentage and boast a front four more than capable of doing this.

Avoid Turnovers: Giants QB Eli Manning must continue to take care of the football as he has done in the past four weeks. They have suffered just the one turnover coming against the Pats in that week 17 game and none in the post season and arguably against better defences certainly in the secondary than he will face here.

Control The Clock: Despite the emergence of their receiving corps, basically the Giants will want to establish their power running game and keep Tom Brady and his troops of the field for as long as possible. In games where the Giants won the battle of the clock they are 10-3 this season with a game killing 40 minutes worth against the Packers last time out.

The Patriots must...

Establish the running game: To maintain their prodigious aerial productivity and keep the Giants "D" honest, the Pats must use RB Laurence Maroney before they switch to their dangerous spread formation - Maroney is instrumental in providing balance and a different type of outlet for this high octane offence.

Shutdown Plaxico: A key part of the ever more balanced Giants offence, if you take away wide receiver Plaxico Burress - who is having a stellar post season - then the Pats will have gone a long way not only to making the Giants one dimensional, but also forcing Eli Manning into mistakes which he hasn't been making so far in the post season.

Keep their "D" fresh: Whilst there may be a lot of experience on the Pats "D", with experience comes old age and they tend to wear down over the course of the game. It will be up to defensive coordinator Dean Pees to keep this group fresh with tactical substitutions at the appropriate times.

Having had a long time to look at this game you can come to many different conclusions as your mind calculates the myriad of possibilities. Can the Giants win this game? Well yes they can, but they are going to have to play a near perfect game to prevent the Pats becoming THE perfect team. They are going to have to make their possessions count and if they do get turnover ball score from it and score touchdowns not just field goals, that was the "mistake" that the post season opposition made only generating six points from four Brady interceptions. That aging but experienced Pats "D" rising up in adversity.

Betfair currently has 32 markets available on the game so there should be something for us all to get stuck into. My colleague TQ has given you some excellent advice in his column on how he would play the game and I'd go along with much of his advice - especially laying the Pats with a view to trading that pretty lean price in-running and getting with the Giants on that 12.5 handicap.

This should be a magnificent back and forth game with lots of scoring and the Pats - who my football head say will win - eventually gaining ultimate control deep into the second half.

The Giants offer the last chance this season to re-affirm the time honoured belief, that on any given Sunday, anything can happen. The dress rehearsal was good, the Superbowl show could be even better.