Road to the Kentucky Derby: Next stop, Florida

USA / Simon Bray / 18 March 2010 / Leave a comment

Bob Baffert has a Derby contender in Lookin' At Lucky

Simon Bray brings a Stateside update where the Tampa Bay Derby is the next big race on the road to the big one in Kentucky

"Wearing blinkers for the first time Lookin at Lucky overcame a troubled trip, stumbling on the heels of Noble's Promise (third in Breeder's Cup Juvenile) with four furlongs to run. But jockey Garret Gomez kept his cool and let the horse gather himself, going on to post a head victory over Noble's Promise."

The weekend of March 13 gave us the long awaited return of Champion 2yo Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Arkansas.

His only defeat in his juvenile campaign came at the hands of Vale of York in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. There were two major questions that needed answering: 1.Did he successfully transition from a 2yo to a 3yo? 2. Could he perform on conventional dirt? The answer to both was a resounding yes.

Wearing blinkers for the first time he overcame a troubled trip, stumbling on the heels of Noble's Promise (third in Breeder's Cup Juvenile) with four furlongs to run. But jockey Garret Gomez kept his cool and let the horse gather himself, going on to post a head victory over Noble's Promise.

This Bob Baffert-trained colt showed so much determination, professionalism and will to win to maintain his position at the top of most people's lists for the Kentucky Derby having only been about 80% fit for his return. The Arkansas Derby, on April 10, looks to be his final prep.

Moving to central Florida, the Tampa Bay Derby has become an important prep the last few years. Street Sense used this race en route to victory in 2007 and in the last ten years, five placed runners at Tampa have gone on to a top three finish in Kentucky.

This year's edition featured a thrilling finish from Odysseus. He was up close to the pace early, dropped out of contention mid race, then re-rallied for a dramatic nose victory, proving his talent but also his inexperience. He's improving at the right time which adds him to the radar, but he didn't beat the strongest group. I'd like to see him have one more race before the Derby.

Finally, we head west to California and Santa Anita where Sidney's Candy was a gate to wire winner of the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe Stakes. This was his first try beyond seven furlongs. It was a good effort but he had an uncontested lead and he might be one dimensional. There are still questions with distance and a true dirt surface for Sidney's Candy, owned by Jenny Craig, who in partnership with her late husband Sid, won the 1992 Epsom Derby with Dr Devious.

There is only one major prep race this weekend, but it is the all important Florida Derby. Eskendereya, from the barn of Todd Pletcher and the top east coast choice for the Kentucky Derby, had been pointing for this race ever since he won the local prep by an impressive 10 lengths. However, a late change of plans by the connections (they prefer to go into the Derby off four weeks rest rather than six), means that Eskendereya will now go to the Wood Memorial in New York April 3 with a possible match up against the Jeremy Noseda-trained Awesome Act.

Pletcher will still be represented in the Florida Derby by Rule (no.7), who won the local prep for the Tampa Bay Derby but decided to come here for the Grade 1 status.

Rule has won his last four starts all in wire-to-wire fashion and he is another who has to prove that he does not need the lead to win. With Eskendereya out, the field size has grown to eleven and includes the former Brian Meehan trained Radiohead (no. 11), who is coming off a nice victory over the track three weeks ago. Nine furlongs could be an issue though.

Miner's Reserve (no.9) is trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Nick Zito. He has only raced twice, but won his last start on the same day and in the same final time as Radiohead. He looked equally as impressive and is bred to handle the distance. Miner's Reserve is a nice value play.